BLI snowman Posted January 20, 2020 Report Share Posted January 20, 2020 Portland had it's two driest years back to back in 2018 and 2019. A lot of our rain has been coming all at once rather than being spread out over time, too. They've been complaining about that in California a lot because when you get all the rain at once it just goes straight into the ocean rather than seeping into the ground. It's been very persistently wet and cloudy around Portland. I had measurable rain every day December 31-January 19 and PDX is not far behind at 18/20 with the other two days seeing a trace. The rain has just been very light for the most part. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 20, 2020 Report Share Posted January 20, 2020 Still a little snow left here and sandy roads. Filtered sun through high clouds and 50 currently. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omegaraptor Posted January 20, 2020 Report Share Posted January 20, 2020 No absolutely it's been wetter up there than down here, especially the past month. Our somewhat similar geographical locations are running 70% here average precip and 140% there in the last month. Definitely a contrast.That AR that hit WA and missed OR certainly helped. It’s certainly been very cloudy in the last month even for the PNW. However since November was unusually sunny you kinda have to expect it to go the other way sometimes. After all the PNW is the cloudiest place in the country in winter. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 20, 2020 Report Share Posted January 20, 2020 The pavement has a really bizarre look to it today around town. Can’t quite put my finger on exactly why. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 20, 2020 Report Share Posted January 20, 2020 Still a little snow left here and sandy roads. Filtered sun through high clouds and 50 currently. I don’t think Jesse wants us to post pics of our snow anymore. 2 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 20, 2020 Report Share Posted January 20, 2020 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 20, 2020 Report Share Posted January 20, 2020 2 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted January 20, 2020 Report Share Posted January 20, 2020 Euro looks pretty wet the rest of the month. This would put PDX over 7 inches for January. Good to see! 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 20, 2020 Report Share Posted January 20, 2020 We have a pretty solid window of opportunity coming up in early Feb. Some promising model runs in that time frame and the EPS teleconnection forecasts continue to trend better. Finally a signal for some -WPO which is something that has been lacking this winter, and the PNA goes negative again.Early Feb might be rushing it a bit. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 20, 2020 Report Share Posted January 20, 2020 Holy mustard sauce. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted January 20, 2020 Report Share Posted January 20, 2020 Ice age? Ice age. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
El_Nina Posted January 20, 2020 Report Share Posted January 20, 2020 It's been very persistently wet and cloudy around Portland. I had measurable rain every day December 31-January 19 and PDX is not far behind at 18/20 with the other two days seeing a trace. The rain has just been very light for the most part.The first 20 days of this year have been pretty wet but that's pocket change compared to having the two driest years ever back to back. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 20, 2020 Report Share Posted January 20, 2020 It's basically been a drier version of January 1953, that month also had some arctic air make it down to the border, albeit not as intensely. Upside to that is the cold in AK actually has been impressive for a change. Anchorage is posting a -14 departure right now and is looking at another extended stretch of deep cold. If the month ended today it would be their coldest January on record and 2nd coldest month overall.How is Alaskan cold an “upside”? That’s terrible for you guys unless there’s large scale forcing to dislodge it like 1989. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 20, 2020 Report Share Posted January 20, 2020 It could be sunny for 150 days in a row... and Tim would be scolding people for enjoying the first wet day and invoking an 0.08” rainfall surplus @ SEA as the reason. Likewise... it could be 100*F and sunny every day all summer and he would be happy as a clam.Fixed. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 20, 2020 Report Share Posted January 20, 2020 Fixed. Not true. I was cheering for rain after only a couple dry weeks last March. And 100 and sunny would be miserable. 75-85 is the sweet spot in the summer. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 20, 2020 Report Share Posted January 20, 2020 How is Alaskan cold an “upside”? That’s terrible for you guys unless there’s large scale forcing to dislodge it like 1989. At least everyone is not torching. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 20, 2020 Report Share Posted January 20, 2020 Some pretty massive spread with the GFS ensembles once we get into early February. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 20, 2020 Report Share Posted January 20, 2020 Early Feb might be rushing it a bit.We need to rush it! Snowmizer and myself will not be in the state in mid February. We need this to progress right along!! Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Esquimalt Posted January 20, 2020 Report Share Posted January 20, 2020 Not true. I was cheering for rain after only a couple dry weeks last March. And 100 and sunny would be miserable. 75-85 is the sweet spot in the summer. How’s the long range eps looking? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 20, 2020 Report Share Posted January 20, 2020 How’s the long range eps looking? Waiting for it to finish... looks about like the 00Z run at 336 hours. A little bit warmer and more zonal though. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 20, 2020 Report Share Posted January 20, 2020 12Z EPS at day 15... potential is there but not a robust as the 00Z run. Running the loop... it appears that the cold is mostly moving east at this time and ridging is trying to build back in from the SW. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mtep Posted January 20, 2020 Report Share Posted January 20, 2020 Took a drive to Silver Lake park a couple hours ago. It's still a winter wonderland over there. If anyone feels like going on a scenic drive through north Whatcom county I highly recommend taking S Pass Rd from Everson to Silver Lake. https://imgur.com/a/8XLtc3R 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted January 20, 2020 Report Share Posted January 20, 2020 Sort of a nice looking cinnamon bun swirling offshore today. https://a.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/loops/wxloop.cgi?sat_500+9 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcmcgaffey Posted January 20, 2020 Report Share Posted January 20, 2020 Sort of a nice looking cinnamon bun swirling offshore today. https://a.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/loops/wxloop.cgi?sat_500+9 Ya I was watching that this morning and was thinking that the storms out in the pacific the last week or so have all looked really beautiful as they have swung into the NW. A lot of low pressures and good rotations. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 20, 2020 Report Share Posted January 20, 2020 The insane +AAM deposition in the tropics this month is something you’d expect to see in developing or well-established strong El Niño regimes. In this case I presume the +IOD compensated for the Pacific in maintaining the E-IO subsidence/dual uplift centers in the WPAC/W-IO. Interesting how there are different external conduits into ENSO modes..really is true that ENSOs come in many different flavors and two ENSOs with the exact same ONI value can have wildly different purpose/meaning and characteristics. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 20, 2020 Report Share Posted January 20, 2020 Note the increasing amplitude and focus of the WWBs as the seasonal cycle has rendered the warm pool more dominant over the +IOD. http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/ventrice/real_time/timeLon/u.anom.90.5S-5N.gif Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 20, 2020 Report Share Posted January 20, 2020 The insane +AAM deposition in the tropics this month is something you’d expect to see in developing or well-established strong El Niño regimes. In this case I presume the +IOD compensated for the Pacific in maintaining the E-IO subsidence/dual uplift centers in the WPAC/W-IO. Interesting how there are different external conduits into ENSO modes..really is true that ENSOs come in many different flavors and two ENSOs with the exact same ONI value can have wildly different purpose/meaning and characteristics.Holy , January! Put simply, AAMIODE-IOWPAC/WIOENSOENSOENSOsONI. 3 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Requiem Posted January 20, 2020 Report Share Posted January 20, 2020 The insane +AAM deposition in the tropics this month is something you’d expect to see in developing or well-established strong El Niño regimes. In this case I presume the +IOD compensated for the Pacific in maintaining the E-IO subsidence/dual uplift centers in the WPAC/W-IO. Interesting how there are different external conduits into ENSO modes..really is true that ENSOs come in many different flavors and two ENSOs with the exact same ONI value can have wildly different purpose/meaning and characteristics.What does this mean in layman’s terms? Quote "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 20, 2020 Report Share Posted January 20, 2020 As easterlies(associated w/ -QBO) continue to descend through the spring/summer, and the tropical tropopause rises/cools over the Pacific, it may act to narrow/intensify the HC/ITCZ over the EPAC and finally complete the move into El Niño that was blocked last year by mature +QBO/feedback by ill-times OKW returns (heart of boreal summer during +PMM). Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted January 20, 2020 Report Share Posted January 20, 2020 The first 20 days of this year have been pretty wet but that's pocket change compared to having the two driest years ever back to back. Even with the dry last two years, the 2010s were a wet decade overall with only 2013, 2018, and 2019 being drier than average. Which included four consecutive wet years between 2014-17. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 20, 2020 Report Share Posted January 20, 2020 But..the one wrinkle is the super-PV in the stratosphere and the potential for a dynamic final warming (similar effects to a SSW). This could, in theory, produce enough high amplitude intraseasonal activity (MJO et al) to destructively interfere with the climatologically-favored lower frequency progression. The “spring barrier” is real. Definitely not making a definitive ENSO call until the stratosphere/NAM/RWB-MJO structures are sorted out for the F/M/A timeframe. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted January 20, 2020 Report Share Posted January 20, 2020 How is Alaskan cold an “upside”? That’s terrible for you guys unless there’s large scale forcing to dislodge it like 1989. Really refreshingly nice to see that region cold again actually. It's literally been years (March 2017 and then spring 2013 prior to that) since they had any meaningful cold anomalies at any time of the year. Been a truly runaway stretch of unprecedented warmth up there. And historically, Alaskan cold and good PNW winter weather are not mutually exclusive. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted January 20, 2020 Report Share Posted January 20, 2020 Euro looks pretty wet the rest of the month. This would put PDX over 7 inches for January. Good to see! 471A2C5D-8823-4AA0-AE76-7590862E8928.jpeg we went from January 2018 all the way to December 2019 without a month above 4” of rainfall per month here in Tacoma. Now it looks like we will have back to back wetter than normal months finally. 1 Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 20, 2020 Report Share Posted January 20, 2020 What does this mean in layman’s terms?It either means that we are entering a multi year super Niño for the ages, or it might snow in February. Still trying to decode it. 4 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted January 20, 2020 Report Share Posted January 20, 2020 12Z EPS at day 15... potential is there but not a robust as the 00Z run. Running the loop... it appears that the cold is mostly moving east at this time and ridging is trying to build back in from the SW. I’m hoping we can score again in February but I’ve already seen 1.5” of snow which is better than several dud years I can remember. Olympia to Seattle May not have done well but Seattle north did really well this January. Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnarkyGoblin Posted January 20, 2020 Report Share Posted January 20, 2020 Little bit off-topic - but check out these videos: https://komonews.com/weather/scotts-weather-blog/incredible-sights-from-newfoundland-after-30-of-snow-fall-in-record-blizzard 30 inches of snow in almost 100mph winds! That would be quite the experience. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
El_Nina Posted January 20, 2020 Report Share Posted January 20, 2020 Even with the dry last two years, the 2010s were a wet decade overall with only 2013, 2018, and 2019 being drier than average. Which included four consecutive wet years between 2014-17.The dry seasons have been much longer and hotter as well.2014 and 2015 were a couple of the worst snowpack years on record for Oregon, despite a ton of rain during the winter. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Requiem Posted January 20, 2020 Report Share Posted January 20, 2020 we went from January 2018 all the way to December 2019 without a month above 4” of rainfall per month here in Tacoma. Now it looks like we will have back to back wetter than normal months finally.If we’re lucky PDX will have an above average rainfall month as well. We sadly missed out on the AR in December (among other things). 1 Quote "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted January 20, 2020 Report Share Posted January 20, 2020 48/39 so far. We had a +9.5 departure yesterday and are currently at +3.9 for the month to date. Currently 11th warmest on record but that will likely go up. 1 Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 20, 2020 Report Share Posted January 20, 2020 If we’re going to do it, let’s do it right. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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