February 2020 (It's cold at the end of the run!)

[Niko]

Looks like much colder air arriving briefly after the snowstorm (not necessarily arctic air) as highs are expected to be on Friday in the mid 20s. Average high is 29F. Lows dropping to near 10 or lower w deep snowcover, so I am thinking we are heading at Single digits. Average low is 17F.

[CentralNebWeather]

Frankly, I wouldn't jump on the 12z run.  The GFS has, for days, been showing a big surge of moisture up over the cold air across the upper midwest.  This is the first run that has suppressed the whole thing, so it's a big change.

Looks like the Canadian still has it.  A lot of moisture and every type of precipitation.  Hopefully, something to track in the days to come.

[jaster220]

 

As of this morning there was just 5.3% of total ice cover on the great Lakes. That is a record low amount for February 4th going back to 1973. This beats the 5.64% on this date in 2016 the 6.1% on this date in 2012 as well as the 6.5% in  2002. Here is the ice cover map.

https://www.glerl.noaa.gov/res/glcfs/glcfs.php?lake=l&ext=ice&type=N&hr=00

 

For more information on Great Lakes Ice coverage here is a web site

 

https://www.glerl.noaa.gov/data/ice/#historical

 

 

Yet another stat that makes the point that we're staring one of the more recent futility winters in the face. 

[St Paul Storm]

Currently 18F under mostly sunny skies. Headed down to 5F tonight. Highs in the 20s and lows in the teens for the foreseeable future.

[OKwx2k4]

 

As of this morning there was just 5.3% of total ice cover on the great Lakes. That is a record low amount for February 4th going back to 1973. This beats the 5.64% on this date in 2016 the 6.1% on this date in 2012 as well as the 6.5% in 2002. Here is the ice cover map.

https://www.glerl.noaa.gov/res/glcfs/glcfs.php?lake=l&ext=ice&type=N&hr=00

 

For more information on Great Lakes Ice coverage here is a web site

 

https://www.glerl.noaa.gov/data/ice/#historical

That's interesting. Didn't realize that it was that ice-free.

[Stacsh]

Yet another stat that makes the point that we're staring one of the more recent futility winters in the face. 

 

At this point I'm actively cheering for spring.  I'm a HUGE winter fan, but I'll take records that are warm or "ice free" as well. 

[Hawkeye]

The 12z Euro also shifted south and sped up next week's system, like the GFS, although it's still much farther north than the GFS.

[Niko]

Attm, cloudy and still averaging AN temps w readings holding at 33F.

[Stormhunter87]

Cpc showing a cold and snowy pattern in the works. Fingers crossed

[Stacsh]

Nothing but average to AN in the long range.

[snowstorm83]

Cpc showing a cold and snowy pattern in the works. Fingers crossed

 

mid-late Feb is our last chance at a decent period. Of course it can still snow in March and early April, but sun angle and average temps are about to start rapidly rising. 

[Niko]

Currently at 33Fw cloudy skies. Temps have not since changed much.

[jaster220]

Currently at 33Fw cloudy skies. Temps have not since changed much.

 

29F attm with a legit cold feeling WC of 24F 

[Niko]

29F attm with a legit cold feeling WC of 24F 

You can almost smell the snow in the air.

 

Btw: Still some huge snowpiles around and I mean big ones at pkg-lots of course.

[Hawkeye]

The 12z GFS suppressed next week's storm well south.  The 00z has rain for all but the far north.  There is certainly potential with this next storm, but it'll be a while before we have any idea who will get what.

[St Paul Storm]

Globals starting to show some decent snow up this way on Sunday. Relatively small precip shield but someone could get a decent hit.

[Hawkeye]

Globals starting to show some decent snow up this way on Sunday. Relatively small precip shield but someone could get a decent hit.

 

It's a potent little system.

 

[Tom]

Looking ahead into next week's pattern, the differences between the GEFS/EPS in terms of where the heaviest band of snow sets up for the mid week system is notable.  The 00z GEFS are a lot farther north while the 00z EPS has been trending farther south over the last few runs.

 

00z GEFS...suggesting from the MN/IA border on north....

 

 

 

 

00z EPS has a lot more snow breaking out in the central Plains/MW into the Lower GL's....a noticeable difference is the area from KS/NE/IA/MO and points east per the 00z EPS.

[Stacsh]

Not a complaint. A fact. One of the worst winters (for winter lovers) I’ve ever seen in Grand Rapids. My weather office is not confident in any snow or cold anytime soon. It will be March before you know it.

[Niko]

Attm, 22F under cloudy skies.

[Niko]

Looks like Sunday more snow is poised to move in. Have to watch and see how that plays out.

[Clinton]

Looks like Sunday more snow is poised to move in. Have to watch and see how that plays out.

Models have been all over the place with the weekend clipper.  Maybe they are starting to settle in.

[Niko]

Models have been all over the place with the weekend clipper.  Maybe they are starting to settle in.

Looking interesting. Hopefully some GOM moisture can feed into this.

[St Paul Storm]

GOM isn’t open for business with the weekend system. Nice little storm with some good forcing though. I wonder if models don’t continue the trend of strengthening this a bit more.

[Stacsh]

We should start a thread for Sat/Sun because I'm out of the path of the current storm 

[Minny_Weather]

12Z HRRR is a snow/ice cocktail for me. Blargh. Decent for all of NW OH/S MI though.

[Tom]

We don't have an ENSO thread but I found this article rather interesting and seeing what the CFSv2 is showing for later this year is rather interesting.  Coincidence??

 

https://electroverse.net/harvard-study-shows-deep-oceans-are-actually-getting-colder/

 

 

 

 

 

The depths of the Pacific have turned markedly colder in recent weeks/months...

 

[Hawkeye]

The GFS is getting pretty frisky with the Sunday system, too.

 

[CentralNebWeather]

GFS wants to build a massive cold high down the Plains in the long term.  Of course it squashes all of the snow chances around here.  One run shows snow, next one doesn't.  It has been doing this now for several days.  Models are showing more cold for next week, but getting any consistency on snow chances is difficult.  Been that way around here for going on 7 weeks.  

[bud2380]

I started a thread for the weekend system as it looks like our MN posters will be pretty happy with this one.  Models are coming in to very good agreement already.  

 

http://theweatherforums.com/index.php/topic/2178-28-29-upper-midwest-gl-snow-system/

[Hawkeye]

The GFS is back to showing rain for most of us next week.  Ugh.

[Andie]

Here’s Accuweathers 2020Spring Projection Map.

 

https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-forecasts/its-here-accuweathers-2020-us-spring-forecast/674083

[CentralNebWeather]

12Z Euro has the storm next week starting on Wednesday.  Hope this continues.

[Hawkeye]

12z Euro next week.  The GFS has rain surging north through the region, but the Euro keeps it snow in the I-80 corridor.  It is focusing the heaviest, longest-lasting snow in the west.  The rest of us get a quick burst of good snow as moisture quickly surges through.

 

[CentralNebWeather]

Thought this was a beautiful shot from the 511 Nebraska system along I 80 around York NE.  Just a small amount of snow showing but the the landscape is great.

 

https://hb.511.nebraska.gov/#cameras/albumView/266?timeFrame=TODAY&layers=cameras

[CentralNebWeather]

12Z Euro is frigid in the middle of the country later next week.  Hopefully we get the snow before and have some legitimate cold before winter ends.  

[gimmesnow]

My ski hill is absolutely trashed after that warm weather. Hard to believe it's the beginning of February and I'm stuck sliding down a sheet of ice trying to find snow. And 2/5 to my south, next storm to my north. I'm not one to usually complain but I really wanted to have good snow before I get corona and die, lol.

[james1976]

GFS nice big dog on the 18th, lol...always 2 weeks

[Clinton]

18z EC the whole run

[Niko]

Next week is looking very active.