June 2023 Observations & Discussions

[Tom]

2 hours ago, Stormy said:

It should look good down there because they had extremely wet weather earlier this spring, and recently my brother who lives near Carbondale said they had around an inch or more. 

 

That brings back some good ol’ freshman memories attending SIUC!  

[Andie]

Rain is showing up on our radar but it’s SSW of us near Austin.  
So much for their forecasting.  
Unless there’s a surprise out there, it’s another disappointment.   

[OttumwaSnomow]

5 hours ago, Stormy said:

I see. That's great! So how did it come about that they want to, or chose your place? 

I've thought about reporting for COCORAHS since I have 2 of those gauges, and have been recording precipitation consistently since January 1990. But there are several reporters in my area and I don't like the idea of bringing in a gauge to melt snow or measure rainfall (over 1") while it's still precipitating. Plus I used to leave for work at various times before reporting time though that's rarely the case anymore. Guess I'm too particular! 

Ive always kept decent records. But have moved  quite a bit over the years.  I think I emailed them declaring my availability  now that i live so near the city and  ive always known  of the need in my area for coop observers. The nws sent me a couple emails so we have a appointment  forthcoming.   I live and work  on my property  almost 24/7/365 now. Will involve both temperatures  and precip i believe. 

[hawkstwelve]

Speaking of Nutrien AG, Eric's in-depth video tonight was very insightful. Talked about what has gotten us to this point of drought in the Midwest and what it will take for the pattern to shake up moving forward. He's watching for either A. the shortwave this weekend to out-perform expectations in the Midwest or B. the return of the Bermuda High back to it's rightful spot. If neither of those things happen, he doesn't sound very hopeful for any meaningful rain in this area of the country.

Recommend a watch if you got some time.

 

[CentralNebWeather]

31 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Speaking of Nutrien AG, Eric's in-depth video tonight was very insightful. Talked about what has gotten us to this point of drought in the Midwest and what it will take for the pattern to shake up moving forward. He's watching for either A) the shortwave this weekend to out-perform expectations in the Midwest or the return of the Bermuda High back to it's rightful spot. If neither of those things happen, he doesn't sound very hopeful for any meaningful rain in this area of the country.

Recommend a watch if you got some time.

 

This is a tremendous video. You’re correct, he goes through all scenarios that have gotten us to this point. 

[OKwx2k4]

Nasty hot weather for the next couple of days in Texas. Oklahoma and Arkansas look variable over the same span. Hoping that at things get really cranking with the heat, we get a good cold front right down the middle.

[OKwx2k4]

The video is great. Those are excellent explanations for our unusual pattern. 

I have been confused as well on our pattern and why in a full El Nino we are struggling. It's pretty anomalous on a national scale, to say the least. 

Some stuff, no matter how hard you try or good you are, you can't call it.

[Stormy]

12 hours ago, Tom said:

That brings back some good ol’ freshman memories attending SIUC!  

Yes I remember you mentioning that college before.

Next spring I'm planning to be down there to experience the total solar eclipse, unless it's forecast to be cloudy, then I'll need to head to where it's expected to be clear. What's amazing is the most recent solar eclipse path of totality also crossed Carbondale, IL a few years ago! But due to work I didn't travel to see that one. 

[westMJim]

The drought continues. Yesterday once again had no rain fall the official H/L at Grand Rapids was 86/57 there was 94% of possible sunshine and the day had a total of 7 CDD’s The overnight low here in MBY was 60 and the current reading is 61 with clear skies. For today the average H/L is 81/60 the record high of 102 was set in 1953 and the record low of 41 was set in 1970. The record rain fall amount of 1.84” fell in 1997.

As is often the case with a east or northeast wind the state high yesterday was at Muskegon with a high of 90 much of the state had highs in the mid to upper 80’s but locations on the east side of the state seen highs in the 70’s There is a slight chance of some showers today and a better chance of showers over the week end and start of next week. It looks warm but not really all that hot over then next week or so. Most days will be in the 80’s and lows with be in the 60’s

 

[tStacsh]

Cut the front lawn yesterday, not because it was growing, but because I was bored.  It's crispy. I'm not going to water 3/4 acre of grass daily.  (Might put underground sprinkling in next year).   The only grass growing and slightly green is the area around our pumpkin patch which we water.   The back is doing better because we have a large garden and it's our real outdoor space, so it's doing better with all the watering. 

While annual precipitation seems to be steady or even on the rise vs average, we seem to be getting into more patterns of extended dry or wet periods over the last few years.  This is certainly a dry period for the record books.  And surprisingly it's coming off an extended period of record wet.   

It looks like a for sure shot of rain next Sunday/Monday, but it's not looking as impressive as it was yesterday.  Hopefully a more widespread soaking rain comes back into the picture on future runs since it's only tuesday.  

It's hard to break a drought pattern as many here know.  If you told me on May 8th we would only see 2 very light rainfall events for the next 42 days in this start to summer going into an El Nino,  I wouldn't have believed you.  But just goes to show all the factors that go into to weather patterns.  Every variable negates another from analogs.  

[Tom]

11 hours ago, OKwx2k4 said:

Nasty hot weather for the next couple of days in Texas. Oklahoma and Arkansas look variable over the same span. Hoping that at things get really cranking with the heat, we get a good cold front right down the middle.

I've been waiting for this Heat Wave to develop at the end of June and during the Long 4th of July Holiday for the SW region.  PHX may hit their 1st 110F a bit earlier than previously thought and is showing up in the grid for next Mon.  It's certainly going to sizzle in the 4 corners, So Cal region and S Plains.  The benefit to all of this is a Bonafide "Ring of Fire" pattern that should set up for the Midwest and GL's as we enter July.  To late for the Eastern Ag Belt?  I hope not as the latest intel from our Farmers out in the western rural areas of N IL saying the corn are rolling their leaves to conserve moisture (sign of stress).

[Tom]

9 hours ago, Stormy said:

Yes I remember you mentioning that college before.

Next spring I'm planning to be down there to experience the total solar eclipse, unless it's forecast to be cloudy, then I'll need to head to where it's expected to be clear. What's amazing is the most recent solar eclipse path of totality also crossed Carbondale, IL a few years ago! But due to work I didn't travel to see that one. 

Yes, I remember that eclipse and recall our local met guru Tom Skilling being down there who showed so much emotion witnessing that total eclipse.  I'm with ya, I'd love to plan a trip for next Spring...either S IL or I think Dallas was a location that was of my interest when I looked at a map of it.

[Tom]

1 hour ago, tStacsh said:

Cut the front lawn yesterday, not because it was growing, but because I was bored.  It's crispy. I'm not going to water 3/4 acre of grass daily.  (Might put underground sprinkling in next year).   The only grass growing and slightly green is the area around our pumpkin patch which we water.   The back is doing better because we have a large garden and it's our real outdoor space, so it's doing better with all the watering. 

While annual precipitation seems to be steady or even on the rise vs average, we seem to be getting into more patterns of extended dry or wet periods over the last few years.  This is certainly a dry period for the record books.  And surprisingly it's coming off an extended period of record wet.   

It looks like a for sure shot of rain next Sunday/Monday, but it's not looking as impressive as it was yesterday.  Hopefully a more widespread soaking rain comes back into the picture on future runs since it's only tuesday.  

It's hard to break a drought pattern as many here know.  If you told me on May 8th we would only see 2 very light rainfall events for the next 42 days in this start to summer going into an El Nino,  I wouldn't have believed you.  But just goes to show all the factors that go into to weather patterns.  Every variable negates another from analogs.  

It's fascinating to a degree how our region went from such a wet start to the year and then "flip the script" to a Severe Drought in my area.  Nature has her way of balancing things out.  I'm pretty confident that we will turn wetter for the opening days of July.

[chescowxman]

A few breaks of sun today but overall we are entering a pretty cloudy and wet period that looks to continue right through the weekend. Rain looks to start by later tomorrow night. This has a good chance of putting a nice dent in our rain deficit so far this year....but it is not great news for those taking an early summer vacation.

Records for today: High 98 (1923) / Low 38 (1926) / Rain 1.36" (1913)

[Timmy Supercell]

These mild (but humid) days are nice. If you can get used to the nights not really dropping much.

Kind of a tough go at convection. To be honest, they could've used tomorrow's SPC outlook for today and it would have been accurate. The NE Kentucky dome is working its magic again.

[Minny_Weather]

12Z Euro really amplifies the death ridge over Texas. Still no end in sight to the oppressive heat there.

[Clinton]

Even with some recent rainfall, I'm still loosing ground on average over the last 30 days.

A decent looking severe setup Saturday night for the KC and Omaha areas as well as western Iowa.  Dew points near 70 along with decent vertical wind shear should produce whats been a rare severe weather outbreak for the area.

[Andie]

98* at 10pm.  

Alright, enough.  
My a/c started leaking into my living room!!!   
By some Grace my husband managed to drain the pan and pipes and a service guy can actually make it here tomorrow afternoon.  

This is worse the 0* and ice on the ground with no power.   I had a fireplace.  You can’t just get cool with no pool.  Showers are just so-so.  
Thank heaven my husband is pretty clever.  

When is this heat dome going to freakin’ move !?

Our heat index was 120*. A record.

[westMJim]

The summer solstice will be at 10:57 AM. This is the calendar start of summer. And after today the days will now start to become shorter as we head toward winter. The official H/L at Grand Rapids yesterday was 90/59 there was no rain fall and there was 83% of possible sunshine. Since May 9th there has been just 0.24” of rain fall at Grand Rapids. This is probably the driest end of spring start of summer in GR history.

The average H/L for today is 81/60 the record high of 98 was set in 1988 and the record low of 40 was set in 1939. The record rain fall amount of 3.36” fell in 1914. Today will be another very warm/hot day. There is a chance of some showers today and again on Sunday and Monday. It will be very warm until cooling down on Monday.

So far June is still below average at Grand Rapids, Holland, Flint, Detroit and Saginaw. It is above average at Muskegon. With a mostly east to northeast wind since May there has been more 90° days on the west side of the state than on the east side. So far Muskegon has had 7 days of 90 or better, Grand Rapids 6 days, Holland 5 days Lansing 4 days. On the east side of the state Saginaw has had 2, Detroit 1 and Flint has 0.

[Stormy]

On 6/19/2023 at 7:38 PM, hawkstwelve said:

Speaking of Nutrien AG, Eric's in-depth video tonight was very insightful. Talked about what has gotten us to this point of drought in the Midwest and what it will take for the pattern to shake up moving forward. He's watching for either A. the shortwave this weekend to out-perform expectations in the Midwest or B. the return of the Bermuda High back to it's rightful spot. If neither of those things happen, he doesn't sound very hopeful for any meaningful rain in this area of the country.

Recommend a watch if you got some time.

 

I'm thinking the displaced Bermuda High is the main problem going forward. 

[CentralNebWeather]

Pouring rain again, awesome. Thunderstorms have formed in the last 2 hours, and parts of the area have 1-2” already. My rain just started at 6:10, it is a beautiful straight down rain. 

[Clinton]

Heat and humidity will crank up some today and may really crank up as we get to the 4th.

[Stormy]

 This is a video from last week that I forgot to share, & some of you probably already have seen it. Just after the 16 minute mark he starts talking about the year of 1992, which I also have mentioned in the recent past, though I couldn't finding my post anymore. But I'm not expecting such a drastic turnaround like that this summer! Just thought it was interesting that he also talked about that year. 

 

[CentralNebWeather]

June 21st morning video. 

 

[Iceresistance]

It did not get below 75°F last night

[CentralNebWeather]

May need to build an ark. 

 

 

[CentralNebWeather]

Just below 1.0” here so far as of 9 am. Friend north of town has 1.20”. Western part of our county in the town of Bertrand, 2-3” as reported by law enforcement. 

[Bryan1117]

2 hours ago, CentralNebWeather said:

Just below 1.0” here so far as of 9 am. Friend north of town has 1.20”. Western part of our county in the town of Bertrand, 2-3” as reported by law enforcement. 

You guys out west keep hogging all the rain LOL, and our chances for getting anything this weekend keep dropping… at least the western half of the state looks to escape this wretched drought.

At least I am coming to terms that pretty much any un-watered yards and fields around here will be dead and brown by the first of July.

[CentralNebWeather]

9 minutes ago, Bryan1117 said:

You guys out west keep hogging all the rain LOL, and our chances for getting anything this weekend keep dropping… at least the western half of the state looks to escape this wretched drought.

At least I am coming to terms that pretty much any un-watered yards and fields around here will be dead and brown by the first of July.

Just an amazing pattern from here and west. I watch the rain head east and it’s almost like it hits a brick wall. Our yards are so lush that you need to mow every 3 days, especially if you mulch. Corn looks as good as ever. Eric Snodgrass says maybe Sunday for Eastern Nebraska. 

[Andie]

At 1pm we’re at 92*.  Hopefully we’re getting a reprieve from the extreme heat.  High May hit 97-98.  
These high heat indexes just tax everything to the limits.  I’ve lived here all my life and you can’t adapt to 120* heat indexes.  
3 months of heat to go!
 

Send some rain and lower temps please   

 

[westMJim]

As is many times the case with a E or NE wind it is warmer on the west side of the state than the east side. The 2 PM readings Grand Rapids 88, Muskegon and Holland 90, Lansing 87. On the east side of the state Detroit 84, Flint 87 and Saginaw 83. It was hot last year on this first day of “official” summer with H/L’s of 98/68 at Lansing, 95/68 at Grand Rapids, 94/70 at Holland and 90/67 at Muskegon. At the current time I have a temperature of 91 with a DP of 59 so it is a little bit more humid than it has been. Most of the grass is now turned brown. Weeds are still green.

[tStacsh]

3 minutes ago, westMJim said:

As is many times the case with a E or NE wind it is warmer on the west side of the state than the east side. The 2 PM readings Grand Rapids 88, Muskegon and Holland 90, Lansing 87. On the east side of the state Detroit 84, Flint 87 and Saginaw 83. It was hot last year on this first day of “official” summer with H/L’s of 98/68 at Lansing, 95/68 at Grand Rapids, 94/70 at Holland and 90/67 at Muskegon. At the current time I have a temperature of 91 with a DP of 59 so it is a little bit more humid than it has been. Most of the grass is now turned brown. Weeds are still green.

I have 91 as well.  Certainly feels like the hottest day so far.   It's cooking out there. 

[Andie]

Wow give it a minute and the temp drops to 84 as that ridge backed off. 
Beautiful low humidity, nice air. 
Thunderstorms expected so it’ll be back over 100 soon. But I’m out on the back patio eating it up! 

Update on rain. Strong storms are expected to arrive in Ft Worth anoint 11 pm. They’ll sweep SSE toward southern Dallas.  
High tomorrow 93 with a small chance of more thunderstorms.   But doubtful.  
 

[Black Hole]

Power is finally back at my office after 4 days of being down. Still 20% of Tulsa county in the dark. We did have a brief storm near noon. Could be some low end chances the next few days, but definitely some hot weather by Sunday. 

[Clinton]

Hot weather continues today, some strong storms Sat evening but the activity will be isolated.  Dew points will be in the 70s in KC so any storms in the are will be juicy!

[Clinton]

Yesterdays WPC outlook looks more encouraging with the extreme heat being more suppressed into Texas.  Maybe the ring of fire will deliver multiple chances of rain for those of us that are needing it badly.  Good long range call by @Tom.

[Tom]

26 minutes ago, Clinton said:

Yesterdays WPC outlook looks more encouraging with the extreme heat being more suppressed into Texas.  Maybe the ring of fire will deliver multiple chances of rain for those of us that are needing it badly.  Good long range call by @Tom.

I'm sooo looking forward to seeing some storms...got my taste of them down in Branson and driving up thru S IL during that very heavy cell in Mt Olive, IL.  I wouldn't be surprised if some areas in IL are raised to Extreme Drought.  The lawns are parched and the ground is so hard.  I heard the cracks in the ground out west are very deep.  You've been doing ok and getting blessed by moisture, now its time for us farther east to benefit.  Good luck this Saturday!

[Tom]

Latest Drought Monitor just arrived: 

Well, surprisingly, I didn't see much of a change in Chicago but parts of NW IL got bumped into MOD drought and a sliver in C IL into Severe Drought.  Extreme Drought grew in NE MO and into SE IA.

[tStacsh]

Some brief relief is on the horizon Sunday-Tuesday.  Won't be enough to break the pattern, but it will certainly be a welcome couple days of cooler temps and some rain.  

[Iceresistance]

Have Y'all heard what happened in Texas last night? 4 confirmed dead in Matador from a surprise tornado.