November 2023 Weather in the PNW

[TT-SEA]

8 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

CanSips is showing it too. When was the last time we had a strong Nino that didn’t flip to a Nina? 
 

From what I can see you have to go all the way back to 1965-1966 to find a moderate/strong Nino that wasn’t followed by a Nina, and 66-67 looks like it barely missed qualifying as a Nina. The only moderate/strong event followed by positive ENSO was 1957-58 and then 1958-59 which is probably why Phil is smashing that analog so hard. 

I am far from an ENSO expert... but after 3 years of Nina it would be strange to be right back in a moderate to strong Nina.   Seems like this Nino is going end being moderate and I think Phil is saying we are entering a cycle in which Nino or neutral will dominate 

[jcmcgaffey]

2 hours ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Almost 6 inches of rain for the month so far here!

Really?! How much rain did you get yesterday?

[Phishy Wx]

10 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I am far from an ENSO expert... but after 3 years of Nina it would be strange to be right back in a moderate to strong Nina.   Seems like this Nino is going end being moderate and I think Phil is saying we are entering a cycle in which Nino or neutral will dominate 

I think a read somewhere in a journal that climate change is inducing more persistent long term Nina states with Nino interludes

[icyasf]

heavy rain and lightning in corvallis!!

[TT-SEA]

20 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

I think a read somewhere in a journal that climate change is inducing more persistent long term Nina states with Nino interludes

I guess that is generally true with a warming climate and was true back in previous warm epochs like the MWP.    But I think Phil is referring to a cycle on a shorter scale.   I will defer to Phil... overall he does really well at predicting ENSO.     

[Gradient Keeper]

Very impressive t-storm in the Sweet Home, Sodaville area. This was a low-topped supercell the entire cell was rotating per Radar loop with great structure.

[Phishy Wx]

there is a slight greenish hue to the NE sky, ever so faint. barely noticable  clouds parted seems we're having a period of mostly clear skies right now

[GHweatherChris]

Just a lame 5.32" of rain here this month.

[Anti Marine Layer]

47 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

CanSips is showing it too. When was the last time we had a strong Nino that didn’t flip to a Nina? 
 

From what I can see you have to go all the way back to 1965-1966 to find a moderate/strong Nino that wasn’t followed by a Nina, and 66-67 looks like it barely missed qualifying as a Nina. The only moderate/strong event followed by positive ENSO was 1957-58 and then 1958-59 which is probably why Phil is smashing that analog so hard. 

It could be a El Nino-"no" if El Nino does not behave as expected.

Last winter was a La Nina-"no". 

[Gradient Keeper]

With the time change the GFS is an hour earlier tonight and I'm sure it will be just as action packed as one can handle. Yeah. I'm sure. I bet. Yeah. I will be late posting this run, well 20-30 minutes roughly.

[Phishy Wx]

Aurora from plane leaving SEA

 

 

 

[Ken in Wood Village]

When this low comes onshore, it's going to be a very interesting Monday. Here's a Satellite loop and screenshot. Also the 00Z HRRR run. And the SPC. 

[GHweatherChris]

12 minutes ago, Ken in Wood Village said:

When this low comes onshore, it's going to be a very interesting Monday. Here's a Satellite loop and screenshot. Also the 00Z HRRR run. And the SPC. 

Gonna be interesting here very soon.....

[Tanis Leach]

6 hours ago, Phishy Wx said:

feels like an all or nothing, if you don't do it in December it ain't happening kinda winter.  maybe some late fun in the second half of Feb.

That's kind of my sentiment on it. Even though my 51-52 analog year produced extreme events in January, because my all analogs (mostly the strong El Ninos) were so strongly saying we're screwed after Jan 10, that I had to say "December is most likely to be active."

 

The -PDO is the wildcard on this one. 

[Tanis Leach]

So Rod Hill dun goofed on his winter Weather forecast.

 

I'll let you figure out the title slide issue.

 

The water year he claims is 5th place is actually 7th since 1950 (his parameters)

6th: 2008-09 (W La Nina): 28"

5th 2019-20 (Neutral/W El Nino): 27.98"

[MWG]

Not the best photographer but the colors are so amazing right now that I had to take some pictures.

 

[Front Ranger]

53 minutes ago, Anti Marine Layer said:

It could be a El Nino-"no" if El Nino does not behave as expected.

Last winter was a La Nina-"no". 

In terms of precip in the Southwest/CA, sure. But overall temp anomalies were very inline with typical Nina.

[Phishy Wx]

at NWS Spokane office

 

 

 

[The Blob]

Still have raspberries and the colors on my street are really popping. Here's one of my maples all firey red.

[Phishy Wx]

sky has a faint green glow to the north, but nothing like the NWS's pic.  need to get out of the light pollution I guess

[Gradient Keeper]

Sorry, I just was not available for the 00z GFS. Here is a re-cap though. 10 Day GIFs: 500mb Height Anomaly, 850mb Temperatures, 1000-500mb Thickness/MSLP/Precip

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GFS 10 Day Rainfall, Snowfall totals

[Gradient Keeper]

00z ECMWF in 4 minutes! Time for the evening Euro run. Hopefully it continues to be somewhat chilly with mountain snow and no boring El Nino dominated patterns. Yeah.

[antipex]

2 hours ago, Phishy Wx said:

there is a slight greenish hue to the NE sky, ever so faint. barely noticable  clouds parted seems we're having a period of mostly clear skies right now

 

[Gradient Keeper]

00z ECMWF Day 1

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 2

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 3

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 4

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 5

[FroYoBro]

Getting some pretty heavy rain at times today. Most of the daylight hours were completely dry, but already approaching an inch on the day before midnight. 

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 6

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 7

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 8 That's more like it. That's what we want to see.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 9'er BIG LOW offshore!

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 10

[Gradient Keeper]

00z ECMWF re-cap. 10 Day GIFs: 500mb Height Anomaly, 850mb Temperatures, 1000-500mb Thickness/MSLP/Precip

[Gradient Keeper]

00z ECMWF 10 Day Rainfall, Snowfall totals

[Dan the Weatherman]

14 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Day 9'er BIG LOW offshore!

That would be a very beneficial storm for most of the West Coast if that verifies! Day 10 looks even better for CA.

Edited November 6, 2023 by Dan the Weatherman

[Phil]

6 hours ago, Meatyorologist said:

but when will the wafz-resistant loading pattern for eventual canadian megatorch hit my house

Don’t look at the new EPS seasonal.  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Already getting pumped UP for the big La NINA next year!