November 2023 Weather in the PNW

[Phishy Wx]

13 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said:

This winter is gonna be a wild card!

is the 'wild card' a turd sandwich?

[High Desert Mat?]

22 minutes ago, Phil said:

There are correlations between ENSO phases when factoring in QBO and solar wind-geomagnetic activity. Together this can affect the type, timing, and frequency of SSW events

Below are some older images by Sam Lillo that I think put things into easier perspective. His MQI index is basically a phase diagram representing stages of QBO evolution, with SSW events plotted with respect to MQI.

Right now, we’re basically at the bottom of the phase diagram, somewhere in phase-2. In terms of +ENSO years, we’re closely following 1986/87, 2009/10, 2014/15, 1991/92, and 1976/77, while running a tad behind 1972/73 and 1965/66.

However, these years have significant internal differences w/rt their ENSO structure, stratospheric ozone/MC, solar cycle, etc, so this alone doesn’t indicate any of them are applicable analogs.

Anyways, below are his plots of SSW climatology for said MQI phases. Interestingly, phase-2 has a heavy -AO skew, and there are a higher percentage of split/W2 type SSWs later in phase-3 & phase-4, which is where we’re headed late winter into spring.

I get some of that you posted. The majority I don’t. Layman’s terms?

[GHweatherChris]

5 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

is the 'wild card' a turd sandwich?

Tune in 8 weeks from now, if you have $hit on ur face you win.

[Kolk1604]

Weeklies are still snowy 

 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

At least the weather prospects now look better than the Bills' playoff hopes after that sequence at the end of the ballgame tonight.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, Kolk1604 said:

Weeklies are still snowy 

 

It’s happening. 

[ShawniganLake]

8 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said:

Weeklies are still snowy 

 

46 day charts are often snowy in the winter. 

[Christensen87]

Looks like some strong east winds could be blowing a week from now. 

[lowlandsnow]

GEFS looks terrible. I sure hope this winter doesn't end up like 2014-2015. 

[SnowWillarrive]

6 minutes ago, lowlandsnow said:

GEFS looks terrible. I sure hope this winter doesn't end up like 2014-2015. 

This winter will be greatest since 1950

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

GEM actually looks good

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

23 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said:

Weeklies are still snowy 

 

That was an extension of last nights 0Z run, which in the 15 day period was way better than the 12Z run today.   It would be interesting to see what the weeklies run from tonight's 0Z run shows, though I think only WXBell subscribers have access to.

[Phil]

24 minutes ago, High Desert Mat? said:

I get some of that you posted. The majority I don’t. Layman’s terms?

Yes there are correlations between ENSO and QBO, but they are unstable and change depending on other conditions within the system. But that doesn’t mean there isn’t at least some degree of predictability.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Can’t wait

[MossMan]

19 minutes ago, lowlandsnow said:

GEFS looks terrible. I sure hope this winter doesn't end up like 2014-2015. 

I still managed to score in November and December!

[MossMan]

.30” on the day, 4.19” for the month. 
Currently 36 degrees. 

[High Desert Mat?]

20 minutes ago, Phil said:

Yes there are correlations between ENSO and QBO, but they are unstable and change depending on other conditions within the system. But that doesn’t mean there isn’t at least some degree of predictability.

So the chances of SSW events increases in Nino years?

[SouthHillFrosty]

Good color still left on one of my trees

[Phishy Wx]

24 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Can’t wait

what exactly are you waiting on?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

3 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

what exactly are you waiting on?

Arctic  

[snow_wizard]

Well....this certainly sucks.  Pretty amazing to see how all of the models did a complete 180 the past few runs compared to what had been shown.  Hard to say when we will get another shot at a good cold pattern.  It is interesting to note that most of the current CPC analogs were from seasons that had extremely blocked winters.  Pretty likely we will see some kind of cold during the next couple of months whether it be real, fake, or both.

The blocking theme is also hinted at with the PMM index that Phil has been talking about.  Most of the very low PMM seasons had winter that featured crazy blocking.

My best guess is we will see a situation in the early part of the winter where we get clipped by some legit cold and then a ridge takes hold and keeps us in fake cold for a pretty extended period.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

8 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Well at least the pacific is shutdown per Jim’s request.

I’d rather have it shutdown than vice versa if you want an Arctic Blast. The 00z GEFS is really dry for the PNW over the next 15 days. Our best bet is for the overhead ridging to retrograde up into Alaska. It’s happened in the past with some of our Arctic Blast.

 

 

[snow_wizard]

33 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Good color still left on one of my trees

This is going to be pretty week for seeing bright color on the trees that aren't already bare.  I could hardly believe how bare the trees were on my drive to work today as compared to last week.  That late October cold snap really did its job.

[Kolk1604]

58 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

That was an extension of last nights 0Z run, which in the 15 day period was way better than the 12Z run today.   It would be interesting to see what the weeklies run from tonight's 0Z run shows, though I think only WXBell subscribers have access to.

Yeah... whoops I thought the 13th was thje newest run. 

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, Frontal Snowsquall said:

I’d rather have it shutdown than vice versa if you want an Arctic Blast. The 00z GEFS is really dry for the PNW over the next 15 days. Our best bet is for the overhead ridging to retrograde up into Alaska. It’s happened in the past with some of our Arctic Blast.

This could be a very dry winter.  Hard to say what the second half may do though.

[snow_wizard]

1 hour ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

That was an extension of last nights 0Z run, which in the 15 day period was way better than the 12Z run today.   It would be interesting to see what the weeklies run from tonight's 0Z run shows, though I think only WXBell subscribers have access to.

Yeah....throw out the weeklies from last night's run.  The whole thing was based on something that isn't going to happen now.  Pretty amazing how fooled the model have been lately.  Something must have drastically changed in the tropics to have caused the huge model shift today.

[snow_wizard]

Already a lot of places in the low to mid 30s tonight.  Nice to see that at least.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

3 hours ago, Ken in Wood Village said:

Mark Nelsen posted this 1981 storm. I remember this storm only because my brother and I went hunting with my dad and uncle that Saturday. We woke up early in the morning and the power was out. The drive to the Coast was very interesting...lol. We drove up to a hill along the Coast (I don't remember what hill we were on) but I do remember being able to see the Ocean from the hill. I remember the winds were very strong. I think that's when I really got interested in the weather too. Great storm 🌧

Sou’Westers are also what got me hooked into weather when I was younger. Reading about the Storm King and Columbus Day Storm even further perked my interest into weather. I’d love to experience at least one of those type of events once in my lifetime.

[AbbyJr]

19 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Yeah....throw out the weeklies from last night's run.  The whole thing was based on something that isn't going to happen now.  Pretty amazing how fooled the model have been lately.  Something must have drastically changed in the tropics to have caused the huge model shift today.

To be honest, I'm actually quite shocked by this sudden model flip. Just the other day both the Euro, GFS, and GEM ensembles were all in agreement with a major high latitude blocking pattern. Looked very much like a raging La Niña. Suddenly today, we have a classic El Niño pattern shown. To see such a dramatic and sudden pattern flip on all the models is sure sign of a major model failure. But this is why I personally don't put much stock in modelling past 5 days. Sure, looking at long range models is fun and can provide hints about the future, but in reality long range forecasting is an educated guess at best. That said, I do think the PNW will see at least some cold and snow at some point in December.

[Phil]

55 minutes ago, High Desert Mat? said:

So the chances of SSW events increases in Nino years?

The chances of a SSW in January, and wave-1/displacement type events increases in El Niño, especially during -QBO/solar minimum (this winter we have -QBO but not solar min).

On the other hand, El Niño/+QBO favors late winter SSW events, or dynamic final warmings such as in 2016. This is typically the most unfavorable ENSO/QBO combo for the PNW region. 

 

[Phil]

56 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Good color still left on one of my trees

Ginkgo?

[Phil]

25 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Well....this certainly sucks.  Pretty amazing to see how all of the models did a complete 180 the past few runs compared to what had been shown.  Hard to say when we will get another shot at a good cold pattern.  It is interesting to note that most of the current CPC analogs were from seasons that had extremely blocked winters.  Pretty likely we will see some kind of cold during the next couple of months whether it be real, fake, or both.

The blocking theme is also hinted at with the PMM index that Phil has been talking about.  Most of the very low PMM seasons had winter that featured crazy blocking.

My best guess is we will see a situation in the early part of the winter where we get clipped by some legit cold and then a ridge takes hold and keeps us in fake cold for a pretty extended period.

-QBO/Niño also good for blocking, especially December (compared to +QBO/niño, at least).

But throw in behemoth +IOD and it gets more complicated. One thing that is certain is niño background state is unwavering and is unlikely to budge this winter, so will need blocking/wave-breaking events to overcome it.

[Phil]

20 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Yeah....throw out the weeklies from last night's run.  The whole thing was based on something that isn't going to happen now.  Pretty amazing how fooled the model have been lately.  Something must have drastically changed in the tropics to have caused the huge model shift today.

Small changes in east-Asia/NW-Pacific were the culprit. 

[AbbyJr]

5 minutes ago, Phil said:

-QBO/Niño also good for blocking, especially December (compared to +QBO/niño, at least).

But throw in behemoth +IOD and it gets more complicated. One thing that is certain is niño background state is unwavering and is unlikely to budge this winter, so will need blocking/wave-breaking events to overcome it.

Was the 1968/69 arctic blast in the PNW SSW induced?

[Cold Snap]

https://x.com/seattlewxguy/status/1724321988322439571?s=46&t=wti5sHI_eE4tVdzY0rtEQA

He also talked about this storm in his video today.

[Phil]

7 minutes ago, AbbyJr said:

Was the 1968/69 arctic blast in the PNW SSW induced?

It likely played a significant role. The SSW actually happened in December, but it took until January for it to downwell to the troposphere and reflect on NAM/NAO (which also aided in building the -PNA/Aleutian ridge).

Note 10mb temps were warm all throughout the polar stratosphere whole zonal winds were weak.

[Cold Snap]

Down to 34 currently.

[Gradient Keeper]

Sorry wasn't home for 00z GFS and completely exhausted to do much else. It seems the next 10 days is a mix of weak weather systems and east wind with the possibility for the first Columbia Basin cold pool. Late in the run arctic air dives down into eastern Montana and some colder air brushes by Idaho and eastern Washington. Nothing much though. I still think its somewhat possible to see models trend colder again, but I am not expecting it. Alright good night.

6z GFS in 1 hour 47 minutes

[SouthHillFrosty]

Ouch

[Ken in Wood Village]

Mark posted this last night. He barely looks 16 in this picture but I think he was in his early 20’s. Wish I looked that young at that age...lol