January 2024 Observations and Discussion

[Black Hole]

1 hour ago, hawkstwelve said:

FWIW, the GraphCast is much further south with the storm around the 9th when compared to the other models. Although, it was late to the game for having the correct placement with the Christmas storm so that could be happening again here. 

 

I sure wish they would plot the states on here, but as best as I can tell that might still keep me in the crosshairs. 

[mlgamer]

Today's model runs were noticeably less favorable for me over the next 10 days (240 hrs). I expect a lot of model and run-to-run variations in the days to come so we'll see how things shake out over time.

[Black Hole]

Looking over a few of our potential storm systems coming up, here is the first one on the GFS, ECMWF control on top, and the GFS heights/EPS heights on the bottom. The most likely outcome of this storm is to impact the central or southern Plains. However, it lacks any meaningful cold air and will rely on generating it in place. This will mostly result in a rain/thunder risk in the warm sector. In the cold sector, snow could still fall over the higher terrain of the panhandle and then again as you get further north but I am writing any snow potential off for my area with this. (90% chance of rain, 10% chance of snow)

 

The second storm will look a bit different. This cold front will bring significant cold air behind it, so precipitation that falls in the cold sector will be snow. As before there will be a rain/thunder threat in the warm sector. Model guidance is uncertain about how far this system will dig, when it will pivot, etc. This keeps my area in play for snow all the way up through the upper midwest. I suspect the low center will pass near or north of me, making the central to northern Plains the prime area for snow. This has the potential to be a major event. 

 

Moving on to storm #3, this one is less certain whether it happens at all. But there is a decent ensemble signal for a trailing wave to intensify and dig further south than storm #2. Should this occur, the current ensemble guidance suggest a snow threat in the central to southern Plains. This also has the potential to be a major event, though I think the ceiling is lower than storm #2. This is also the only period that favors the southern Plains based on my analysis. 

 

Here are some ensemble plots for the next 2 weeks. For the OK area, we will probably get cold around the 10th when storm #2 passes by to the north (most likely). Also worth noting that for down here there is probably about a 30% chance no snow falls, 50% chance Tr-2" falls, and 20% chance for more than 2" for storms 2-3. 

 

[CentralNebWeather]

5 hours ago, Black Hole said:

Looking over a few of our potential storm systems coming up, here is the first one on the GFS, ECMWF control on top, and the GFS heights/EPS heights on the bottom. The most likely outcome of this storm is to impact the central or southern Plains. However, it lacks any meaningful cold air and will rely on generating it in place. This will mostly result in a rain/thunder risk in the warm sector. In the cold sector, snow could still fall over the higher terrain of the panhandle and then again as you get further north but I am writing any snow potential off for my area with this. (90% chance of rain, 10% chance of snow)

 

The second storm will look a bit different. This cold front will bring significant cold air behind it, so precipitation that falls in the cold sector will be snow. As before there will be a rain/thunder threat in the warm sector. Model guidance is uncertain about how far this system will dig, when it will pivot, etc. This keeps my area in play for snow all the way up through the upper midwest. I suspect the low center will pass near or north of me, making the central to northern Plains the prime area for snow. This has the potential to be a major event. 

 

Moving on to storm #3, this one is less certain whether it happens at all. But there is a decent ensemble signal for a trailing wave to intensify and dig further south than storm #2. Should this occur, the current ensemble guidance suggest a snow threat in the central to southern Plains. This also has the potential to be a major event, though I think the ceiling is lower than storm #2. This is also the only period that favors the southern Plains based on my analysis. 

 

Here are some ensemble plots for the next 2 weeks. For the OK area, we will probably get cold around the 10th when storm #2 passes by to the north (most likely). Also worth noting that for down here there is probably about a 30% chance no snow falls, 50% chance Tr-2" falls, and 20% chance for more than 2" for storms 2-3. 

 

Your analysis is spot on with what the 18z GFS run just shown. 

[james1976]

That lead system is looking more and more intriguing. 

[Clinton]

Gary with an update on the upcoming storms.

This map shows the GFS model (American Model) for total snowfall in the next 15 days.  The LRC long range prediction has had this in the forecast for a series of storm systems in the first half of January, with one or two targeting the KC region. This shows the target for snow being Nebraska & Iowa.  We will monitor closely for a shift south in the next few days. The first storm isn't due until around the end of next week, and that one doesn't have cold air to work with.  Have a great Saturday night!

 

[GDR]

Full gfs run

[hawkstwelve]

At this point I'm more surprised when the GFS doesn't show 12+ inches for this area.

It's probably too good to be true this far out but there were a couple events last year that also locked in a ways out and never really faltered. Maybe it'll happen again. What has me intrigued more than usual for this range is that every model and their respective ensembles are showing very similar things, besides the new GraphCast model. That lends a little more credence than would normally be given to systems 7+ days out. 

Case in point, the 00z CMC doesn't go as nutso with it as the GFS but still shows a powerful system dumping a good amount of snow somewhere from the Plains to the Midwest. That's about the best agreement you could hope for at this point in the game. Color me cautiously optimistic. 

[Naptownwx]

[Minny_Weather]

6 hours ago, hawkstwelve said:

At this point I'm more surprised when the GFS doesn't show 12+ inches for this area.

It's probably too good to be true this far out but there were a couple events last year that also locked in a ways out and never really faltered. Maybe it'll happen again. What has me intrigued more than usual for this range is that every model and their respective ensembles are showing very similar things, besides the new GraphCast model. That lends a little more credence than would normally be given to systems 7+ days out. 

Case in point, the 00z CMC doesn't go as nutso with it as the GFS but still shows a powerful system dumping a good amount of snow somewhere from the Plains to the Midwest. That's about the best agreement you could hope for at this point in the game. Color me cautiously optimistic. 

This CMC solution actually seems realistic to me. The GFS is way too juiced.

[Naptownwx]

I think we are getting ready to make up for lost time ️ 

[Tom]

1 hour ago, Naptownwx said:

Did someone say something about a Texarkana Low???  Hmmmm....

[Tom]

17 hours ago, hawkstwelve said:

FWIW, the GraphCast is much further south with the storm around the 9th when compared to the other models. Although, it was late to the game for having the correct placement with the Christmas storm so that could be happening again here. 

 

AI for the win???  Interesting model data coming in last night...its not a question IF a storm happens at this point...it appears we will be tracking a copules systems over the next week!  The lead system looks like an "appetizer" for parts of the S Plains/MW region....then the Big Dog potential.

0z Euro OP....

 

[FV-Mike]

LOT AFD: 

Looking out beyond day 7, for multiple model cycles in a
row, the ensemble means have consistently depicted the ejection
of an anomalously deep western trough into the Midwest. The pieces
could thus come together to support a strong synoptic system
affecting the region (irrespective of precip. types) early in the
first full work week of January. Medium-long range ensemble
guidance also has been consistent in an active and colder pattern
continuing through mid January, so there may eventually be some
bonafide winter weather threats to track. Stay tuned.

 

[Clinton]

0z Euro getting closer to the precip path that's been hot this season.

[Tom]

14 minutes ago, FV-Mike said:

LOT AFD: 

Looking out beyond day 7, for multiple model cycles in a
row, the ensemble means have consistently depicted the ejection
of an anomalously deep western trough into the Midwest. The pieces
could thus come together to support a strong synoptic system
affecting the region (irrespective of precip. types) early in the
first full work week of January. Medium-long range ensemble
guidance also has been consistent in an active and colder pattern
continuing through mid January, so there may eventually be some
bonafide winter weather threats to track. Stay tuned.

 

I'm stoked for you guys back in Chitown!  KC peeps and @Clinton are in the mix with these two systems dialing up next week...the trends colder and more snowier are very intriguing to say the least.

Check out the Ensemble mean trends over the past 48 hours...all of them are "seeing" the Canadian HP Seeding the cold and pressing south...which one will it be????  Texarkana or Arklatex Low....either way.....Lets Freakin' Go!

 

 

 

0z EPS...

[Minny_Weather]

Yeah... I'm realistic enough to know that I'm not receiving 15" from a low in Central Iowa lol.

There is only one GEFS member that is more bullish than the operational.

[Clinton]

15 minutes ago, Tom said:

I'm stoked for you guys back in Chitown!  KC peeps and @Clinton are in the mix with these two systems dialing up next week...the trends colder and more snowier are very intriguing to say the least.

Check out the Ensemble mean trends over the past 48 hours...all of them are "seeing" the Canadian HP Seeding the cold and pressing south...which one will it be????  Texarkana or Arklatex Low....either way.....Lets Freakin' Go!

 

 

 

0z EPS...

Near perfect track for KC and myself.  Fire up the KC to Chicago train!  Right on schedule with the LRC. 

[Tom]

28 minutes ago, Clinton said:

Near perfect track for KC and myself.  Fire up the KC to Chicago train!  Right on schedule with the LRC. 

I already put the word out to my best friend who is in the Ozarks and my family back home...my Dad has a flight out of PHX to ORD on the 9th and I'm thinking he should reschedule.  The pattern setting shop across the Heartland into the Lower Lakes region is something that may become very Special and quite possibly Memorable...IF, just one Big Dog or several systems of varying intensity line up right after the other...Snow-on-Snow and re-sruging cold....it'll "Look and Feel" like the Late 70's!  Man, what a turn of events and a Golden opportunity for the lack of any snow since Winter began to make up in a hurry for many of our Southern and Central members.  

[Stacsh]

This will be fun to watch and fall apart.  Either way, Looks like a week of winter coming second week of January when it should be winter so that’s cool.   Probably will have to rely on LES snow once again.  
 

only 10 days out what could go wrong? 

[ATW]

2 hours ago, Clinton said:

0z Euro getting closer to the precip path that's been hot this season.

At this point I’d be happy with one or two decent storms only for this winter. Hope there’s enough cold air so it leaves a snow pack for a few days. This last system dropped a couple of inches but almost completely melted within several hours. 

[Madtown]

Hope we cash in on one of these and then some lake snow. Not being greedy just give us enough to open trails!

[CentralNebWeather]

12z GFS second storm. Perfect track for this area. 

[CentralNebWeather]

Just for fun. Combines storm 1 and 2. 

[westMJim]

1 hour ago, Stacsh said:

only 10 days out what could go wrong?

Where have I seen that before????

[mlgamer]

12z GEFS mean snowfall (10:1) south of the operational 12z GFS at 240 hrs. Canadian (kuchera) looks similar...

 

[Tom]

12z GEFS with a SE shift in the overall track of the 8th-10th storm...

[Tom]

1 minute ago, mlgamer said:

12z GEFS mean snowfall (10:1) south of the operational 12z GFS at 240 hrs. Canadian (kuchera) looks similar...

 

 

 

 

 

Reel  in this bad boy...IMHO, this will be a KC winner...

[Tom]

Reminiscent to the Ground Hog's Day Blizzard, we saw a similar pattern that transpired:

1) Arctic HP over the Dakotas

2) Plenty of cold air seeding the storm

3) Powerful trough rolling through the 4 corners

12z GEFS...last 10 runs implying that there will be a bonafide Arctic HP across the norther tier of the U.S....

 

[Clinton]

There is beginning to be some ensemble support for the lead system on the 6th and 7th to produce some snow in the southern plains. There isn't alot of cold air for this system.  0z Euro hinted at this last night.

12z GEFS

[uticasnow]

When posting maps can everybody post Maps of the entire Midwest area including the Great Lakes (Michigan, etc)

It would be  much appreciated

 

Thanks!

[Clinton]

The second and more powerful storm beginning to take shape as @Tom and @mlgamerhave been pointing out.  South trend should continue fun times!

 

[Tom]

If your around the GL's, what a way to ring in the New Year?  Clipper today and tomorrow...then another Cold front/Clipper Wed PM into Thu and a sneaky lead storm for next Sat/Sun tracking from the S MW into the OHV???  2 days later of Big Dog on the horizon???  I'd be getting pretty excited about the potential for you guys out east and back in my old stomping grounds.  The way this DEC ended for the region, with snow chances on the rise in significant fashion it'll be like going from Spring into the heart of Winter in a flash!

 

 

[Clinton]

The Canadian ensembles are more in line with the LRC with the heaviest snowfall totals over eastern Kansas.  Eastern Kansas has been the winner with every storm that takes a more southerly track.

[hawkstwelve]

Definite southward shift on the models this morning for the big kahuna. Not surprised given where the GraphCast model showed it. 

[MKEstorm]

28 minutes ago, uticasnow said:

When posting maps can everybody post Maps of the entire Midwest area including the Great Lakes (Michigan, etc)

It would be  much appreciated

 

Thanks!

Yes! I second that! Thanks!

[Hoosier]

Storm around the 10th seems like it's already getting an outsized amount of attention.  Probably because of the relatively high ceiling and lack of action so far for many areas, but just gotta remember that it is an eternity until then.  Just hope that it can be a big one somewhere and not get scaled back into something more modest.  I guess anything would be a win at this point though.

[gabel23]

It would be great if we can get a straight west to east track, spread the wealth to everyone. I’m tired of riding the line with cutters! Good to see all major models picking up on a biggy!

[Iceresistance]

47 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Definite southward shift on the models this morning for the big kahuna. Not surprised given where the GraphCast model showed it. 

Can you post the trend on the models?

[jcwxguy]

Definitely south in the euro