Still all playing out like '19, '20, and '21.
Try a mental exercise, close your eyes.
Think of cold, snow, a wintery landscape. Think of the cityscapes of Vancouver, Seattle, Portland, and Eugene, and picture them with just globs of snow heaped over them. Keep your eyes closed and imagine maps filled with those pepto pinks and purples. Imagine that arctic air spilling over Vancouver Island and making its way back to Washington and Oregon. Imagine regional blizzard warnings and snow cov
Yeah, the delta on Monday will be telling with Graphcast and Spire. People forget (or don't know) that both models only work off of initialization data and then use various degrees of image based machine learning at very high terrain definitions. Its effectively taking those analog lists to the next level. This means though that there is no real condition modeling taking place, but rather a "I think this feature will develop here because it typically does when these patterns at these levels are
Furnace was set at 70 for many months. Not sure last time it ran but I turned it off yesterday morning and it was 70 in here at that time. Now what do we do Phil? Turn on AC on what will be a relatively chilly night at least down into the low 50s.
One thing that's nice about this ridge is that it's an entirely midlatitude feature. There's no 4CH component at all, in fact there is a weak trough over that part of the country. I think that is why we are able to see more ways to break it down easily and reintroduce troughing. If we were dealing with a huge, sprawling high with connections down to CA and AZ we'd probably be staring right down the barrel of perma-summer once more.
Obviously we'll have to deal with it eventually as its presence and transient influence on the region is normal Summer climo. But the fact we are not seeing it yet, combined with the recently re-aquired ability in the 2020s to get substantial troughing regimes into AMJ, give me hope that the core of the warm season is still a ways away.
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