Still all playing out like '19, '20, and '21.
Try a mental exercise, close your eyes.
Think of cold, snow, a wintery landscape. Think of the cityscapes of Vancouver, Seattle, Portland, and Eugene, and picture them with just globs of snow heaped over them. Keep your eyes closed and imagine maps filled with those pepto pinks and purples. Imagine that arctic air spilling over Vancouver Island and making its way back to Washington and Oregon. Imagine regional blizzard warnings and snow cov
Yeah, the delta on Monday will be telling with Graphcast and Spire. People forget (or don't know) that both models only work off of initialization data and then use various degrees of image based machine learning at very high terrain definitions. Its effectively taking those analog lists to the next level. This means though that there is no real condition modeling taking place, but rather a "I think this feature will develop here because it typically does when these patterns at these levels are
There’s another element I didn’t see before re: bifurcation point in the pattern/guidance.
The GFS/GEFS (and half of GEPS members) take a second shortwave trough and dig/phase it with the pre-existing ULL under the NW-Pacific anticyclone, while the Euro/EPS and ICON keep it relatively progressive.
That is the ultimate difference maker. And while the GFS is almost always too aggressive in digging such shortwaves even within 48hrs, the CMC isn’t (at least not to the same degree).
The smallest differences in the handling of the NW-Pacific situation makes a massive difference downstream!
The man people on here are grovelling over. Effing sad that half our country is apparently ok with this and thinks he deserves to be the one commanding our troops.
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