January 2024 Weather in the PNW (Part I)

[Timmy]

[RentonHill]

498 line into Northern WA by hr180

[Frontal Snowsquall]

What a beautiful trough!

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Snow going into the event.

[Timmy]

Based on the block strength, this does not look to have the crazy longevity of the 06z

[Phishy Wx]

4 minutes ago, Doinko said:

Block looks kind of weak on the GEM but thankfully it isn't flying off north, should still be cold

its an improvement.  GEMs like ok, I look like a moron so here

[Cascadia_Wx]

 

6 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Just perusing the models, the lobe of cold we are tracking for late next week begins moving into our hemisphere over the next couple days, helped along by the western trough/lower heights in W Canada starting this weekend.

The initial iteration of our all important GOA ridge will be forming offshore the next few days, as well 

 

This map is for 00z on the 7th

Edited January 5 by Cascadia_Wx

[Kolk1604]

GEM is done for 

[Snownerd3000]

Looks like the north winds start to hit the border around 4pm Thursday. Is that the front or does that come after?

[Front Ranger]

One thing slightly concerning on the GFS is the ridge is weaker and getting progressively more undercut by energy south of the Aleutians on the past couple runs.

And the GEM is still a mess.

As long as the Euro looks good, we're still in good shape but this thing is far from a slam dunk at this point.

[Cascadia_Wx]

Even if this thing does eventually pan out to some degree, we’ll probably see at least one heartbreaker Euro run at some point in the next few days. Brace yourselves.

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

2 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

One thing slightly concerning on the GFS is the ridge is weaker and getting progressively more undercut by energy south of the Aleutians on the past couple runs.

And the GEM is still a mess.

As long as the Euro looks good, we're still in good shape but this thing is far from a slam dunk at this point.

The Arctic front looks pretty likely at this point. Anything after that is a crapshoot 

[Frontal Snowsquall]

8 minutes ago, Mid Valley Duck said:

The model of consistency!

The GEM is really working them windshield wipers!

[Snowdome]

Mark Nelson says we’re all idiots

 

[Doinko]

2 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

One thing slightly concerning on the GFS is the ridge is weaker and getting progressively more undercut by energy south of the Aleutians on the past couple runs.

And the GEM is still a mess.

As long as the Euro looks good, we're still in good shape but this thing is far from a slam dunk at this point.

GFS at least does look colder in the 6-10 day range which is great to see

[Cascadia_Wx]

Just now, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

The Arctic front looks pretty likely at this point. Anything after that is a crapshoot 

Pretty new here, aren’t you?  

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Holy shit!

[Slushy Inch]

4 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

One thing slightly concerning on the GFS is the ridge is weaker and getting progressively more undercut by energy south of the Aleutians on the past couple runs.

And the GEM is still a mess.

As long as the Euro looks good, we're still in good shape but this thing is far from a slam dunk at this point.

Ridge looks fine to me

[MossMan]

1 minute ago, Snowdome said:

Mark Nelson says we’re all idiots

 

He’s a weenie just like the rest of us, he just has to stay professional. 

[Front Ranger]

1 minute ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

The Arctic front looks pretty likely at this point. Anything after that is a crapshoot 

Let's get it within 5 days.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

2 minutes ago, Snowdome said:

Mark Nelson says we’re all idiots

 

The June of 115 degrees says HELLO!

[RentonHill]

Just now, Slushy Inch said:

Ridge looks fine to me

As long as it rebuilds OK - any stupid cutoff in there is going to funk it up

[OysterPrintout]

GEM is in the unfortunate position of being very inconsistent but the only model showing a solution that isn't preposterous

[TacomaWx]

1 minute ago, Doinko said:

GFS at least does look colder in the 6-10 day range which is great to see

I’ll take mid term improvements over  long term good trends any day. 

[MossMan]

Just now, Slushy Inch said:

Ridge looks fine to me

Phil, Jared, Mark Neilson, and Matt are not onboard. 
 

[Mid Valley Duck]

6 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

One thing slightly concerning on the GFS is the ridge is weaker and getting progressively more undercut by energy south of the Aleutians on the past couple runs.

And the GEM is still a mess.

As long as the Euro looks good, we're still in good shape but this thing is far from a slam dunk at this point.

In the believable time range this run is an improvement.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

1 minute ago, Front Ranger said:

Let's get it within 5 days.

Be nice to have the Canadian, this is Far from a lock.

[DeepFriedEgg]

Just now, RentonHill said:

As long as it rebuilds OK - any stupid cutoff in there is going to funk it up

Aleutian trough looks pesky but this delivers colder than the 06z so far wow

[SnowWillarrive]

Mark Nelson says this is a non event. 

[Front Ranger]

2 minutes ago, Doinko said:

GFS at least does look colder in the 6-10 day range which is great to see

Yeah..the result still looks good for the PNW currently which is encouraging, what I noted in that post is just a small red flag that I've learned to look out for with these things.

It's not altering the modeled progress of the Arctic air at this point, hopefully the small trend I mentioned with energy undercutting the block a little more in the 4-6 day range won't continue.

[RentonHill]

1 minute ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Be nice to have the Canadian, this is Far from a lock.

it was the most consistent one on the board first, too. Bugs me. 

[SimplySmoothWX]

5 minutes ago, Snowdome said:

Mark Nelson says we’re all idiots

 

To be fair he was part of that byproduct too at one point. We all saw how that turned out...

[RentonHill]

Some snow on the GEM. Crazy NW flow

 

[Deweydog]

4 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Phil, Jared, Mark Neilson, and Matt are not onboard. 
 

Just along for the ride. Tuesday is the day to watch. We’re getting there!

[Phishy Wx]

7 minutes ago, Snowdome said:

Mark Nelson says we’re all idiots

 

lol the kid (he's not even a met just a 'forecaster') on our NBC channel last night mentioned  'social media is going crazy' last night

[iFred]

14 minutes ago, Timmy said:

Based on the block strength, this does not look to have the crazy longevity of the 06z

You and Mark are sadly right. It aint happening. Over. Done. Forks out. Waste of time and money.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

We are starting to enter 2005/2011 territory if this ends up busting. 

[RentonHill]

Just now, Deweydog said:

Just along for the ride. Tuesday is the day to watch. We’re getting there!

[Phishy Wx]

8 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Let's get it within 5 days.

yup, the magic 120h rule

[Prairiedog]

15 hours ago, Sandy rocks said:

Okay, here's an oldie's perspective on cold temperatures. The coldest winter I ever experiences from beginning to end was 1978. That year the Columbia froze near the airport out to the middle of the river and there were ice chunks in the river. Snow came after Xmas and was cold all of January with a 2" ice storm in February. The cities in the gorge were shut down for over two months and people climbed the waterfalls.  Next to that was 1989. February was very cold, down to 0 in Troutdale but no snow, December was also very down to 0. I have lived east of Portland since 1987 and I have not seen it get down to 0 again although February 2014 was also very cold into the low teen for highs.

If I remember right, all the rivers were running low.  The Willamette, Columbia, and the Clackamas near Oregon City had very low CFS flow.  Free flowing ice was in the Willy and people were walking across the Clackamas at High Rocks in OC.  It wouldn't have happened in a normal water year but it was something to see.