January 2024 Weather in the PNW (Part I)

[Phishy Wx]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Yep 

i'm at the station, but not on the train

[Front Ranger]

2 minutes ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

Thats tomorrow. 

GFS shows the Arctic front moving through western WA around hour 168 currently. I'll be a lot more confident if we have good model consensus within 120 hours. 

120 hours out is day 5.

[Slushy Inch]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Yep 

Maybe it will take one more euro 

[selkirks]

how's the icon lol

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Round two 

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

1 minute ago, Front Ranger said:

GFS shows the Arctic front moving through western WA around hour 168 currently. I'll be a lot more confident if we have good model consensus within 120 hours. 

120 hours out is day 5.

Okay so tomorrow and a half. 

[TacomaWx]

Just now, High Desert Mat? said:

Lol. You all are funny. This run has been solid. Only pull back I saw was less snow. Did you really think 6 feet was in its way?

It’s more about the GEM not being in full agreement is what’s causing the slight skepticism. I don’t think anyone thought the gfs was bad…just a slight upstream change. 

[Minion]

3 minutes ago, High Desert Mat? said:

Lol. You all are funny. This run has been solid. Only pull back I saw was less snow. Did you really think 6 feet was in its way?

Stop being realistic 

[SimplySmoothWX]

Does anybody have access to the AI models? I'm curious what theyre showing

[Christensen87]

5 minutes ago, selkirks said:

how's the icon lol

Icon looks fine 

[Front Ranger]

Considering we arrive in Tahoe the 12th, this would be amazing.

[Mid Valley Duck]

3 minutes ago, SimplySmoothWX said:

Does anybody have access to the AI models? I'm curious what theyre showing

Last night's Graphcast

[Kolk1604]

Yeah no change in the GEFS. Here it comes 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Middle of next week looks very snowy here, even the Gem throws a nice punch.

[Front Ranger]

8 minutes ago, selkirks said:

how's the icon lol

Chilly, but not nearly as amplified as GFS.

[Deweydog]

Tomorrow morning looks wet.

[Phishy Wx]

 

 

[Sunriver Snow Zone]

If the GFS GEFS EPS and ECMWF are on board by Sunday morning I'll believe it, for now we just wait and model ride...

[SilverFallsAndrew]

GFS ensembles look good. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Sick overrunning event. 

[Omegaraptor]

New GFS drops to -35 just east of Willamette Pass

[Snownerd3000]

25 minutes ago, jakerepp said:

359 people viewing right now. And we're still a week away. 

I send a link to the forum to a dude in my FF league. 

 

[AlTahoe]

The end of the Gfs run is something. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

GFS ensembles look good. 

Any word on the street about the Canadian ensembles?

[Deweydog]

2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Sick overrunning event. 

Everyone will be sick from the lack of sleep at that point.

[TacomaWx]

Just now, Cascadia_Wx said:

Any word on the street about the Canadian ensembles?

The Canadian forecasters gotta edit it before it gets posted. They clearly don’t want to share the cold and snow south of the 49th parallel. 

[RentonHill]

1 minute ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Any word on the street about the Canadian ensembles?

Still not there but small improvement at least in terms of 850s over the NW

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

22 minutes ago, selkirks said:

how's the icon lol

Icon shows it getting cold, then by the end (hour 180), things are being shoved east.  High pressure is approaching the coast and the trough goes east.

[Phishy Wx]

3 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Any word on the street about the Canadian ensembles?

needs more syrup

[AlTahoe]

19 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Considering we arrive in Tahoe the 12th, this would be amazing.

Fyi the Heavenly gondola just closed for possibly the season due to a major mechanical. Plan accordingly as parking is all jacked up now. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

The end of the 12z gfs shows a 48hr snow storm that is still going at the end of the run along with brisk north winds.

[OysterPrintout]

pages are going too fast for me to keep my spreadsheet accurate with which poster has informed everyone else of exactly when they'll be confident it's going to happen

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Idk if it’s been mentioned but the GFS ensembles is incredible.

[Mid Valley Duck]

Portland at hour 192 on the GEFS, average is -10.4c. 16/30 of members are below -10c, 7/30 are between -5c and -10c and 7 are warmer than -5c. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Idk if it’s been mentioned but the GFS ensembles is incredible.

Easily the best GEFS yet. At least with the initial shot late next week.

Edited January 5 by Cascadia_Wx

[Phishy Wx]

5 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

Icon shows it getting cold, then by the end (hour 180), things are being shoved east.  High pressure is approaching the coast and the trough goes east.

kinda what the JMA (lol) was doing yesterday evening

[Sunriver Snow Zone]

4 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

The end of the 12z gfs shows a 48hr snow storm that is still going at the end of the run along with brisk north winds.

For some reason I'm a little disappointed by the snow totals on this run, after the amazing 06z. Probably about 4' for me on this one so there's really no reason to be disappointed but I still am.

 

Great overrunning snowstorm!

[SimplySmoothWX]

1 minute ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Easily the best GEFS yet.

Until the 18z

[Deweydog]

3 minutes ago, OysterPrintout said:

pages are going too fast for me to keep my spreadsheet accurate with which poster has informed everyone else of exactly when they'll be confident it's going to happen

[Front Ranger]

4 minutes ago, AlTahoe said:

Fyi the Heavenly gondola just closed for possibly the season due to a major mechanical. Plan accordingly as parking is all jacked up now. 

That's a bummer. Mind DMing me more details/tips on how to plan accordingly? Much appreciated!