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January 2024 Weather in the PNW (Part I)

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Posted by TT-SEA,

Its definitely coming.  
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Posted by iFred,

Still all playing out like '19, '20, and '21. Try a mental exercise, close your eyes. Think of cold, snow, a wintery landscape. Think of the cityscapes of Vancouver, Seattle, Portland, and Eugene, and picture them with just globs of snow heaped over them. Keep your eyes closed and imagine maps filled with those pepto pinks and purples. Imagine that arctic air spilling over Vancouver Island and making its way back to Washington and Oregon. Imagine regional blizzard warnings and snow cov

Do this.

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Posted by iFred,

Yeah, the delta on Monday will be telling with Graphcast and Spire. People forget (or don't know) that both models only work off of initialization data and then use various degrees of image based machine learning at very high terrain definitions. Its effectively taking those analog lists to the next level. This means though that there is no real condition modeling taking place, but rather a "I think this feature will develop here because it typically does when these patterns at these levels are
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Posted by Meatyorologist,

Transferring to Part II at 5pm in ~10mins!

Important Note!

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Corncob
Corncob

Fine. I’ve been lurking here for years. I live in Shoreline and do hyperlocal forecasting for friends between the ship canal and Everett since about 2018. I also work with mutual aid groups to help ho

iFred
iFred

Last Warning Any political, political-adjacent, it-isn’t-political-when-I-know-I’m-on-the-right-side-of-history, or this-guy-was-a-fascist-neo-liberal-weak-will-reactionary-and-so-it-was-ok-for-m

iFred
iFred

Ok, while the Euro is running, I'd like everyone to read the following and then close their eyes and think hard about it. I know its weird hocus pocus stuff for some, but there is some science behind

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BLI snowman Grand Master

BLI snowman

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

You mean its not going to play out precisely as the models show tonight?  😀

Could go the other way too.  

The neutering of the block is definitely a tough nut to crack. Wouldn't quite say it's irreversible but in the modeling teleconnection universe it's a different animal from flips of the longitude optimization variety.

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SilverFallsAndrew Grand Master

SilverFallsAndrew

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I don't remember any 100s this past summer.   Not even many days above 90 for us.   We got screwed out of our heat blast. 

Don’t worry. Oregon took them. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Front Ranger Grand Master

Front Ranger

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, the_convergence_zone said:

Hard to compare winters and summers when summer temperatures are warming 3x as fast as winter in this region. 

That's a pretty limited sample size for that stat, too...just saying.

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A forum for the end of the world.

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MossMan Grand Master

MossMan

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

We lost a 9in average on the GEFS

IMG_8266.png

Looks amazing to me! 

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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TT-SEA Grand Master

TT-SEA

Posted
Posted

Total snow through Friday evening.... 1-2 inches of snow and temps in the 20s is still pretty wintry.  

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-total_snow_kuchera-5104000 (1).png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Perturbed Member Grand Master

Perturbed Member

Posted
Posted

Thursday night -15c 850mb SEA and -12c PDX

Pretty similar to the UKMET as far as 850s in western OR and WA in that time frame. The results turn out fine but the mechanism to force this cold air down looks so marginal with that ridge barely hanging on. 

Seems like we will be in for many more tense nailbiter model runs. 

850th.us_nw.png

 

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MossMan Grand Master

MossMan

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Winterdog said:

Shows me at 23 degrees at 4pm on Thursday with 2" of snow.  I'll take that.  I don't need single digits, just a couple inches of snow and freezing temps.

Will probably be more snow than currently shown anyway. Perhaps a January 2007 repeat! 

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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Meatyorologist Grand Master

Meatyorologist

Posted
Posted

Hope springs eternal. Let's reverse things tomorrow

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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SeanNyberg Rising Star

SeanNyberg

Posted
Posted

I'm down in the teens on Thursday night and into Friday. With temps colder by 10 degrees for central sound & EPSL than the last euro run.

I'm totally loving this Euro

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TT-SEA Grand Master

TT-SEA

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Front Ranger said:

Told you it was better than GFS, Tim.

But I have no confidence in any solution at this point.

I have zero idea what will happen.   Remember that massive snowstorm on the 00Z GEM way back like 2 hours ago?  

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Front Ranger Grand Master

Front Ranger

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, Doinko said:

Colder air way farther south than the 12z at this time, but also quicker to leave it looks like

We went from "don't trend any further west" on last night's Euro to glancing blow that will be eastside only if it trends any more that way.

A forum for the end of the world.

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Frontal Snowsquall Grand Master

Frontal Snowsquall

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:
Day 6.5 850s PDX -14c, The Dalles -20c.
image.png

 

3 minutes ago, Perturbed Member said:

Thursday night -15c 850mb SEA and -12c PDX

Pretty similar to the UKMET as far as 850s in western OR and WA in that time frame. The results turn out fine but the mechanism to force this cold air down looks so marginal with that ridge barely hanging on. 

Seems like we will be in for many more tense nailbiter model runs. 

850th.us_nw.png

 

Loving that Cold Pool in the Columbia Basin.

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SeanNyberg Rising Star

SeanNyberg

Posted
Posted
Just now, AbbyJr said:

Is this a bad trend or just the typical temporary rug pull?

That's the fun part. We don't know right away. 

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TT-SEA Grand Master

TT-SEA

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

The neutering of the block is definitely a tough nut to crack. Wouldn't quite say it's irreversible but in the modeling teleconnection universe it's a different animal from flips of the longitude optimization variety.

I get this sense as well... crazy strong blocking usually appears in the mid and long range and it needs to survive the model ride.   But we don't often see the models trend towards much stronger blocking within the 5 day period.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Frontal Snowsquall Grand Master

Frontal Snowsquall

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, Doinko said:

Colder air way farther south than the 12z at this time, but also quicker to leave it looks like

 

3 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:
850s PDX -14c, The Dalles -22c. It's a dry run as the arctic air is focused a bit further east, but the low level cold with east winds will keep PDX in the freezer. Then we wait for moisture.

As they always say get the cold air in here first, then worry about moisture later.

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Meatyorologist Grand Master

Meatyorologist

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, Phil said:

Compared to 12z yesterday the blocking all around has been neutered substantially. 🤮 

IMB_KzMHCp.gif

What causes this, physically? Reduced heat transfer from the tropics? Less digging of troughs upstream?

Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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