January 2024 Weather in the PNW (Part I)

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

Surprise!   Overrunning event.   

There’s our regional event!

[TT-SEA]

That is dry snow too... in the 20s with easterly flow keeping cold air in place.

[High Desert Mat?]

6 minutes ago, Phil said:

Compared to 12z yesterday the blocking all around has been neutered substantially.  

Thanks captain obvious. Time for a ban Fred. 

[MWG]

Well I may see some mix precipitation tomorrow who knows!

[Doinko]

Still very cold in PDX as the snow ends

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Cold pool in the Columbia Basin still intact at day 8.

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, Frontal Snowsquall said:

There’s our regional event!

Bellingham?  Vancouver?   

[BLI snowman]

7 minutes ago, Phil said:

Compared to 12z yesterday the blocking all around has been neutered substantially.  

Our friend AL just doesn't want to leave us alone this year.....

[AbbyJr]

Just now, Phil said:

I wish I knew.

Seems like that deepening low north of Alaska is shifting south and resulting in a weaker GOA block and shifting it southeast. Less amplification and the polar vortex taking an eastward shift is the result. Actually, the 00Z Euro looks identical to the GFS. This happened last December around leading up the arctic blast. After one or two bad Euro runs, it reverted back to the cold solution and eventually the GFS followed suit. Who knows if that will happen this time. It's a very fragile setup to say the least.

[Gradient Keeper]

It would take several systems to scour out PDX as every storm would pull in more bitter low level cold.

Maybe the ridge could trend stronger? We just need that ridge connection, and also if the Aleutian ridge merged that big block would be back in play. Really need the EPS to be similar.

 

[Requiem]

Ironically this setup at face value seems more classic for PDX snow 

[lowlandsnow]

So close to greatness

[TT-SEA]

Comparing the 12Z ECMWF to the 00Z run is absolutely striking.   And yet 00Z run is still plenty snowy and cold!

 

[Slushy Inch]

5 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

What causes this, physically? Reduced heat transfer from the tropics? Less digging of troughs upstream?

Probably a long list of things. This so far out. Imperfect data ect…

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 8.5 925s yeah, that bitter cold pool isn't going anywhere.

[SnarkyGoblin]

14 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Yeah PDX will be setting record highs by next weekend. 
 

We are at the point now where Oregon folks have moved on to the grief stage while Washington posters are still in denial and pointing out phantom snow maps. 

Broad strokes you're not wrong....until the next model.

The fact that the euro only moderated and didn't go full gfs gives me hope.  

[snow_wizard]

If this ECMWF run verifies a lot of people on here will be happy!

[Frontal Snowsquall]

1 minute ago, Gradient Keeper said:

It would take several systems to scour out PDX as every storm would pull in more bitter low level cold.

Maybe the ridge could trend stronger? We just need that ridge connection, and also if the Aleutian ridge merged that big block would be back in play. Really need the EPS to be similar.

 

Models usually seem over aggressive pushing out the cold air. Especially if there is a Cold Pool in the Columbia Basin. January 2004 is a good example of that.

[Phishy Wx]

10 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

We went from "don't trend any further west" on last night's Euro to glancing blow that will be eastside only if it trends any more that way.

Remember last night when the shiity JMA showed an east slide off and I said climatology favors that?  Weird huh

[TigerWoodsLibido]

This location fucking sucks. Bye bye regional event. They just don't make it this far south anymore.

[TT-SEA]

Is the ECMWF event around day 8 similar to the January 2017 event that was so good in Portland?    Was that a system sliding south over a cold air mass in place?

[the_convergence_zone]

Just now, Requiem said:

Ironically this setup at face value seems more classic for PDX snow 

I feel the same about Seattle, as much as I loved that colder 12Z run I doubt I would have seen more than an inch or two of snow out of it, as least not until the overrunning that would have happened beyond F240. This warmer setup is more promising for a nice storm next weekend, in fact it could even do for more of a trend north. 

[snow_wizard]

Just now, Phishy Wx said:

Remember last night when the shiity JMA showed an east slide off and I said climatology favors that?  Weird huh

This is a highly abnormal pattern so climatology doesn't mean much.

[Skagit Weather]

Ugh...not that it's going to happen in any shape or form, but I really hate overrunning events. Definitely my least favorite type of snow setup. I can't recall the last overrunning setup that produced decent snow here. Almost every time I'm shadowed for hours while it's snowing all around me, and then finally when the precip gets here it falls as rain and all the snow melts remarkably quickly.

In the last 15 years I'm not sure I've picked up more than 2" (if that) from an overrunning event. Of course that's not what any model shows at the moment, but I just hope the only snow chances don't come down to overrunning.

[CliffMassYelledAtMe]

35 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

This forum has a knack for being its weirdest/potentially offensive when the most strangers are pointed this way.

Stress does that to people. And there are only visitors when stress inducing models are happening.

[Snownerd3000]

Good weekend for a drunken guys weekend. 

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, SnarkyGoblin said:

Broad strokes you're not wrong....until the next model.

The fact that the euro only moderated and didn't go full gfs gives me hope.  

It's a fantastic run actually.

[TT-SEA]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

It's a fantastic run actually.

But unbelievably different than its 12Z run.    So its probably not done changing.  

[Gradient Keeper]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Is the ECMWF event around day 8 similar to the January 2017 event that was so good in Portland?    Was that a system sliding south over a cold air mass in place?

Yeah strong east winds pulled in cold air.

[BLI snowman]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Is the ECMWF event around day 8 similar to the January 2017 event that was so good in Portland?    Was that a system sliding south over a cold air mass in place?

Nope. That event was driven by a low landfalling to the south in central OR with an arctic airmass advecting in from the NE. Very frontogenic in nature.

[Mid Valley Duck]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Is the ECMWF event around day 8 similar to the January 2017 event that was so good in Portland?    Was that a system sliding south over a cold air mass in place?

It came more out of the WSW. Similar landfall though.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Welp, with things trending in a depressing direction, I'm gonna go back to watching Breaking Bad.

[Winterdog]

10 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Bellingham?  Vancouver?   

Anywhere north of Seattle?  

[Deweydog]

Breezy!

[lowlandsnow]

Maybe just maybe the EPS will save us and will have its coldest run yet

[Gradient Keeper]

1 minute ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Welp, with things trending in a depressing direction, I'm gonna go back to watching Breaking Bad.

It's all good. Maybe things trend colder again. Have a good night bro.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

Welcome back.  Here's the EPS, minus hour 360

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

850s

[lowlandsnow]

Unfortunate trends but at face value the euro was still good for Seattle. 

[Cold Snap]

FWIW despite the recent trends on the models. The Weather Channel still is showing cold temps IMBY. It warmed from what it was showing earlier but it’s still pretty cold with what they are showing. I’ve noticed they tend to base their forecasts of the GEFS and be slightly warmer than it.