January 2024 Weather in the PNW (Part I)

[SeanNyberg]

Seattle hits 32 Thursday night. Drops below freezing Friday morning.

18z running 5-6 degrees colder around Puget Sound - TREND ALERT!!!

[Mid Valley Duck]

arctic air further south at day 5

[snow_wizard]

Better.  that's all we need for now.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Some of the winter cancel rumors have seeped out. A friend was saying “I heard the cold snap isn’t happening.” Me: “Nope, still happening. Fraser outflow starts Thursday.”

[TacomaWx]

Everything can be given back just as quickly as it’s taken away in this game. 

[Front Ranger]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

Better.  that's all we need for now.

Yeah. Baby steps.

[Cloud]

5.5. Eh. Still got a little bit of work left but trending better. Continue this on the 00z please.

[Mid Valley Duck]

Better run for sure 

[MossMan]

7 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

2021 or 2022?

2022. Could be how the models were acting and how we cancelled things and whatnot until the models slowly bounced back into quite a respectable 5 day event. 

[TT-SEA]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

Better.  that's all we need for now.

Pretty close to the 00Z ECMWF.    I would not be surprised to see the ECMWF also go in the direction of the GFS tonight.  

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Horray! The GFS is accurate again!

[Frontal Snowsquall]

3 minutes ago, Cloud said:

Day 5. Better 

Good step in the right direction.

[SeanNyberg]

18z GFS Portland surface temps remain relatively unchanged from 12z Thurs-Friday

But that will change if the trend continues. This is a much needed improvement and a much more realistic shift back

[MikeInEverett]

3 minutes ago, Cloud said:

Day 5. Better 

Ridge trending slightly stronger, trough trending slightly west, let’s keep that going for the next couple days and we’re back to crazy cold territory.

[snow_wizard]

Much better.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

1 minute ago, SeanNyberg said:

Seattle hits 32 Thursday night. Drops below freezing Friday morning.

18z running 5-6 degrees colder around Puget Sound - TREND ALERT!!!

The main lobe of high pressure has trended west as well. A little more and wr should see the low pressure activity blossom around Vancouver island again. Probably on the 06z or 12z run tomorrow. 

[TT-SEA]

No doubt the 18Z GFS is about to show overrunning snow... even the 12Z run did that.  

[Mid Valley Duck]

Much better into the basin

[Weiner Warrior]

Where's the train? I need to jump back on!!

[SeanNyberg]

Just now, SeanNyberg said:

18z GFS Portland surface temps remain relatively unchanged from 12z Thurs-Friday

But that will change if the trend continues. This is a much needed improvement and a much more realistic shift back

Scratch that... a nice run to run drop off of 8-10 degrees Friday evening.

Great news all around

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, SeanNyberg said:

18z GFS Portland surface temps remain relatively unchanged from 12z Thurs-Friday

But that will change if the trend continues. This is a much needed improvement and a much more realistic shift back

Yup.  Just the first step in the cave in process.

[TT-SEA]

Yeah... this is going to be snow.  

[Blizzard777]

43 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

18z GFS starting soon. Hope everyone has their catheters inserted!

Chilling on the couch feet up watching the PGA Tour Golf in Hawaii and iPad in hand enjoying the weather forum

I’m in the zone! 

[TT-SEA]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

Yup.  Just the first step in the cave in process.

Guessing it will be more of a compromise process... but that will still be good.

[iFred]

10 minutes ago, MillCreekMike said:

Pretty dramatic skies in Everett currently

I may live right near that!

[Meatyorologist]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Guessing it will be more of a compromise process... but that will still be good.

It'd be a compromise process if both were converging toward one another. In this case both the 12z Euro and the 18z GFS made moves in a positive direction.

[TT-SEA]

I think the 18Z GFS solution is ideal if you want snow with the cold.   Just brushing us with cold opens the door for moisture.

[snow_wizard]

Snow!  This is the 24 hour total with the late week system.

[SeanNyberg]

18z GFS should definitely lift everyone's spirits. 

[Frontal Snowsquall]

4 minutes ago, Mid Valley Duck said:

Better run for sure 

Good shift towards cold. With more data tonight the 00z could make a big jump towards the EURO/GEM.

[TacomaWx]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

I think the 18Z GFS solution is ideal if you want snow with the cold.   Just brushing us with cold opens the door for moisture.

For western Washington atleast…if this is going to be a more regional event gotta make a lot more improvements in the next couple days. 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Guessing it will be more of a compromise process... but that will still be good.

I mean, the odds against the crazy cold verifying were virtually zero anyhow. Backpedalling was inevitable. Some good snow chances coming up. In January. In a Niño winter.

[TT-SEA]

Just now, TacomaWx said:

For western Washington atleast…if this is going to be a more regional event gotta make a lot more improvements in the next couple days. 

Hard to have it all... more aggressive cold means less snow for WA.   

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Depressing.

[Cascadia_Wx]

Just now, TacomaWx said:

For western Washington atleast…if this is going to be a more regional event gotta make a lot more improvements in the next couple days. 

That’s just typical doe-eyed trolling. To be expected.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

1 hour ago, mjreich said:

Without naming my sources I can confirm this

It was obvious 5 years ago this would be the right answer. Combined with Spire’s remote sensing data from oceans and improved data ingestion pipelines, we’re on the cusp of a radical improvement in forecasting skill in the next 18 months. Once the training expands to include synthetic data, It’ll blow you all away how good it’s going to get and at what resolutions…

Will the AI models ever do ensembles?  Since the initialization data isn't perfect, so maybe they would.

I am also guessing someday with better satellites, we may have better data to input for initialization.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Yeah... this is going to be snow.  

Nice!

[snow_wizard]

Awesome run from Portland north.

[TacomaWx]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

Hard to have it all... more aggressive cold means less snow for WA.   

I know it doesn’t always necessarily work this way but I’d trade more snow for colder. We’ve had so much snow the last few years anyways. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

This location sucks. We never get Arctic air down here anymore. Only 1 sub freezing high in 7 years.

Embarrassing and indicative of the rapid warming of this area.