January 2024 Weather in the PNW (Part II)

[MossMan]

2 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Most likely outcome at this point, at least as far as temperatures for the PNW, appears to be something in the middle of Jan 1998 and Dec 1968.

If that happens, it will be a huge win for both a strong Nino winter and the month of January. Couldn't ask for much more.

NO JANUARY 1998! NO! 

[SnowWillarrive]

2 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

Nws Seattle removed the special weather statement wtf

They talked to Cliff 

[Front Ranger]

3 minutes ago, RentonHill said:

GEPS is colder loading the 850s than its 00z so far

The highest level of certainty with this is that there will be a massive pool of very cold temps to pull from.

[GHweatherChris]

2 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

Nws Seattle removed the special weather statement wtf

They always do when they are writing up a new one.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

SWS just dropped for MBY.

Quote

7:26 AM PST Sunday 7 January 2024

Potential for winter weather early this week.

When:
Monday and Tuesday.

Hazards:
Significant snow accumulations for inland sections of the central and south coasts. Potential for snow at sea-level along the coastal sections of the south coast and eastern Vancouver Island followed by heavy rain.

Very strong winds for western and southern Vancouver Island.

Remarks:
A series of storms will bring winter weather conditions along the BC coast from Monday through Tuesday.

On Monday, there will be the potential for snow to reach sea-level along the coastal sections of the south coast and eastern Vancouver Island. Mild air moving into the region will help transition any snow to rain by Monday afternoon. For Monday night, the rain will become heavy with the most significant amounts expected for West Vancouver Island.

Inland sections and higher terrain will be cold enough for snow on Monday. The snow will become more intense on Monday night and significant snow accumulations are expected.

Additionally, very strong winds will develop on the west side of Vancouver Island for Monday night and continue into Tuesday. These winds will reach the inner south coast on Tuesday.

Weather warnings may be issued as the event nears.

Please continue to monitor alerts and forecasts issued by Environment Canada. To report severe weather, send an email to BCstorm@ec.gc.ca or tweet reports using #BCStorm.

[snow_wizard]

Yay!  The GFS is finally pulling its head out.  About half way there now.  Much better GEFS with over half the members going below -8 on 850s.

[SeanNyberg]

Canadian ensembles continue the cooling trend, which is impressive since they were already in the low 20s. Lol 

With the model discrepancies that really took hold on Friday, I think it’s still best to suss out trends to see where things are shifting.

Yesterday saw nearly all models trend colder and today the warmer models are continuing that trend.

If you’re team Winter Storm then this is all great news.

[SeanNyberg]

Since I showed the GFS ensemble, here is the GFS model to model change for surface temps on Saturday.

All trending in the right direction.

[Front Ranger]

1 minute ago, MossMan said:

NO JANUARY 1998! NO! 

I'm saying it looks colder than that, but warmer than 1968.

Your area probably had 3 days with highs around freezing in 1998. In 1968, you probably had three sub-20 days.

So somewhere close to the middle would be a number of days in the lower to mid 20s.

 

[snow_wizard]

Not sure if it means anything, but there are quite a few GEFS members still below -10 on the 15th.  First time I've seen that.

[SnarkyGoblin]

29 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said:

All in means just my backyard.

We get it.

[Anti Marine Layer]

Interesting forecast discussion 

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

Anyone have the SPIRE from last night? 

[jakerepp]

Was just outside and it hasn't felt that cold down here in the time I've lived in AZ. 

44, cold rain, breezy and gusting to maybe 15kts. Felt like home!

[MossMan]

1 minute ago, Front Ranger said:

I'm saying it looks colder than that, but warmer than 1968.

Your area probably had 3 days with highs around freezing in 1998. In 1968, you probably had three sub-20 days.

So somewhere close to the middle would be a number of days in the lower to mid 20s.

 

Ahhh I read your post wrong. Got 2hrs of sleep last night due to a 5 year old who decided our bed is her bed again so we spent half the night putting her back to her bed. Did get lots of forum checking time in however! 
 

[MossMan]

1 minute ago, Anti Marine Layer said:

Interesting forecast discussion 

A whiteout!! 

[Prairiedog]

45 minutes ago, Requiem said:

That southern Oregon low could end up being good for the WV snow-wise if precip reaches further north than expected...

Strong east winds might eat some of that moisture that could creep north.  It will be a dance to watch for sure.  I'm wondering if those strong gradients will give the valley gap winds.  That could kill some of that moisture as well.  We'll see.  I'll get warm nosed no matter what happens.  Gap winds would sure help me if I can get the moisture. 

[Mercurial]

Picked up 5" overnight (ba dum tss), with an 8" snowpack.  Everything looks so wintry and beautiful.  Much more snow and moisture on the way

[Ziess]

Man I hope these really cold temps happen, it would decimate the box elder/stink bug populations! 

[Sunriver Snow Zone]

Quote

Winter Storm Watch

From Mon 1 am until Wed 10 am PST

 

Action Recommended

Make preparations per the instructions

Issued By

Pendleton - OR, US, National Weather Service

Affected Area

In Oregon, Northern Blue Mountains of Oregon and East Slopes of the Oregon Cascades. In Washington, Northwest Blue Mountains

Description

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING ABOVE 3500 FEET... ...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING... WHAT...For the Winter Weather Advisory above 3500 feet, snow. Additional snow accumulations of up to 3 inches. For the Winter Storm Watch, heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 10 to 20 inches possible. Winds could gust as high as 55 mph. WHERE...In Oregon, Northern Blue Mountains of Oregon and East Slopes of the Oregon Cascades. In Washington, Northwest Blue Mountains. WHEN...For the Winter Weather Advisory, until 10 AM PST this morning. For the Winter Storm Watch, from late tonight through Wednesday morning. IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. Widespread blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening commute. Strong winds could cause tree damage. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Slow down and use caution while traveling. Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation. The latest road conditions can be obtained for Oregon by calling 5 1 1 or by visiting online at https://tripcheck.com, or for Washington by visiting online at https://wsdot.com/travel.

Winter Storm Watch for me! 

[SeanNyberg]

For the sake of completion, the ICON did trend warmer (they don’t have a model to model change map).

However, the temps warmed by around 3°, going from 8°f to 11°f

So, yes, trended warmer. But, not of any concern.

[Kayla]

1 minute ago, Mercurial said:

Picked up 5" overnight (ba dum tss), with an 8" snowpack.  Everything looks so wintry and beautiful.  Much more snow and moisture on the way

Nice! Snowing in Bozeman this morning as well. Looking like maybe 2-4" there by end of day. 

I've been in MN/WI over the past week where there is still ZERO snow on the ground. Pretty wild. Looks like I'll be heading home right before the Bozeman becomes the Arctic...again.

[Mercurial]

NWS Missoula uses the Graphcast

Quote

The next arctic push will be substantially colder as it blasts
into the Glacier Region on Wednesday, then into the remainder of
western Montana by Thursday morning. The upper level flow
predicted by both the European and Canadian ensembles would place
our region in a favorable pattern for more accumulating snowfall
as the arctic wedge pushes southwest, but the GFS ensembles paint
a picture that is not as snowy or cold. The GFS ensembles have
been trending slightly colder in the past several runs. One of the
machine learning experimental models, GraphCast, is siding with
the colder and snowier solutions. Regardless of the heavy snow
potential, this period will be very cold and windy with highs in
the single digits above or below zero and lows below zero across
the region into the weekend. Wind chill temperatures could
approach 20 to 40 below zero or colder by Thursday and Friday. The
probability for low temperatures falling below 20 below zero
range from the 70 to 85 percent Polebridge, Ovando to Butte...50
to 65% Eureka, Olney to Marion. For colder than 30 below zero,
there is a 50 to 60% chance at Polebridge, Ovando, Avon to
Drummond Friday and/or Saturday.

 

[snow_wizard]

Looks like next weekend will have a good snow threat for somebody.  Placement will depend on how well the Arctic air digs in.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

I expect euro to warm on average about 5 degrees and maintain that for a nice blast. Gfs will come around tonight.  I don't expect euro to maintain current model.

[Weiner Warrior]

Our furnace quit working this AM... A good sign it's coming.

[snow_wizard]

3 minutes ago, Mercurial said:

NWS Missoula uses the Graphcast

 

It's catching on fast.  The ECMWF site had major problems last night.  Probably because a lot of people in the US getting very excited about things.

[RentonHill]

This is still just amazing to me. @iFred you really think there is something about the weekend runs/lack of human data validation that may have caused this?

 

[GHweatherChris]

4 minutes ago, Mercurial said:

NWS Missoula uses the Graphcast

 

KSEA will refuse to use it no matter what

[Phishy Wx]

bummer, this will pretty much wipe out our 4-8" tomorrow, before the Polar dome sets up shop.  this will be a Snow Eater on Tuesday (temps near 40, winds of 50mph)

 

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, Weiner Warrior said:

Our furnace quit working this AM... A good sign it's coming.

Great timing.

Side note.  Our furnace is over 50 years old and still working fine.  When we bought the house over 20 years ago the inspector called it a dead man walking.  They don't make em like they used to!

[Slushy Inch]

3 minutes ago, RentonHill said:

This is still just amazing to me. @iFred you really think there is something about the weekend runs/lack of human data validation that may have caused this?

 

Yeah something fishy going on there. Is nailing it for a couple days and then bails once other models agree.

[LowerGarfield]

23 minutes ago, SnowWillarrive said:

They talked to Cliff 

Back in the 90's there was an old IHOP commercial with a kid saying "Logistics, Cliff!"

[snow_wizard]

For the person who requested Spire.

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

For the person who requested Spire.

Got a loop?

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, Slushy Inch said:

Yeah something fishy going on there. Is nailing it for a couple days and then bails once other models agree.

12z is way better though.

[runninthruda206]

Imma be honest. I love the cold temps and it’d be cool to break records in that department if we can but I want at least a few inches of snow

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

45 minutes ago, MossMan said:

1st shade of grey!! 

Small spot of blue for me sucker!!

[TacomaWx]

It’s coming…and coming in big time. 

[Sunriver Snow Zone]

Just now, runninthruda206 said:

Imma be honest. I love the cold temps and it’d be cool to break records in that department if we can but I want at least a few inches of snow

Widespread 2-3 inches is all I ask for. Doesn't sound like too much for the weather gods to give, is it?

 

Preferably more but we get what we get.