January 2024 Weather in the PNW (Part II)

[Olive1010]

Dang dude

[Perturbed Member]

1 minute ago, TacomaWx said:

What Jim means is that precipitation fields usually extend further north. Like the precipitation swath would cover a much larger area on the northern extent. Not necessarily that the low will be north itself. 

Agree that the precip shield usually extends further north than modeled. That seems to very often be the case. 

Did the precip make it up to Tacoma in Feb 2014? I thought at least OLM had some light accumulations. 

[Front Ranger]

1 minute ago, Frontal Snowsquall said:

That's bad a**.

[iFred]

Just now, MossMan said:

Just vomited again. 

Just get it over with. We know how this plays out. What kind of lawn and boat prep do you have that you can take care of now for our warm February? I've already scheduled orders for dirt and stone for Feb 17th. El Nino is going to Nino. Embrace what your inner Weenie fears, live like a Californian and just let winter go.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

1 minute ago, MossMan said:

Just vomited again. 

We can make tumbleweed men this weekend!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

8 minutes ago, Mid Valley Duck said:

Absolutely gorgeous track and landfall for the Willamette Valley. I'd take my chances at my location with this track and landfall location.
 

Yeah it’s definitely overdoing WAA

[MossMan]

10 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Projected snow depth shown one week from this morning.  

I cannot stop vomiting…And it’s getting quite messy. 

[TacomaWx]

1 minute ago, Perturbed Member said:

Agree that the precip shield usually extends further north than modeled. That seems to very often be the case. 

Did the precip make it up to Tacoma in Feb 2014? I thought at least OLM had some light accumulations. 

I think it snowed but didn’t accumulate. Typically though with a system like this coming in if PDX is getting nailed we at least get something from it. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

2 minutes ago, Perturbed Member said:

Agree that the precip shield usually extends further north than modeled. That seems to very often be the case. 

Did the precip make it up to Tacoma in Feb 2014? I thought at least OLM had some light accumulations. 

But during arctic air events most of it can be virga, it will be flighting a very dry air mass.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

2 minutes ago, Perturbed Member said:

Agree that the precip shield usually extends further north than modeled. That seems to very often be the case. 

Did the precip make it up to Tacoma in Feb 2014? I thought at least OLM had some light accumulations. 

It made it all the way to Seattle! Was a big forecast bust for the NWS, which had only predicted flurries instead of a widespread 1–3".

[Front Ranger]

@AlTahoe if these southern solutions verify, we're gonna get buried this weekend.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Snowing at my place now, a bit to warm to stick.

[LowerGarfield]

5 minutes ago, MossMan said:

I just puked in my mouth…A lot…

Yes I will say this. I had the pleasure of experiencing Feb 2014 (Cannon Beach) and Feb 2019 (Stanwood). Both were amazing. There was even enough for the Oregon event that the college kids built an igloo and it lasted for 2-3 days. No one came to the conference center for a week so all the employees had a super easy week and enjoyed the snow at the high tide mark.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

1 minute ago, MossMan said:

I cannot stop vomiting…And it’s getting quite messy. 

Those maps are wrong 100% of the time. I remember in 2019 it showed me having 3 inches a few days in advance and i had 24 lol.

[Kolk1604]

24 members calling for significant snow 

[iFred]

2 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

We can make tumbleweed men this weekend!

Ha. A real ABQ tumbleweed man has several Smiths bags and a water bottle with apple juice at its feet.

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

1 minute ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Those maps are wrong 100% of the time. I remember in 2019 it showed me having 3 inches a few days in advance and i had 24 lol.

The night before the feb 2019 event I was forecast for up to 6", we got 28. 

[the_convergence_zone]

The giant El Niño magnet must be pulling this thing to California. 

I didn't think such a ridiculous GFS/Euro battle was still possible inside of 100 hours in these modern times. 

[runninthruda206]

Is it just the GFS alone fighting the rest of the models for snow in Seattle Fri night now? 

[Slushy Inch]

Upward trend 

[iFred]

1 minute ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

The night before the feb 2019 event I was forecast for up to 6", we got 28. 

A few days in advanced it looks like a decent event, but not 2008 grade, but then a I think a day before it looked like it was going to be something serious. My gut says there are a couple modeled bits that will pleasantly surprise most of us, but we wont see until maybe tomorrow.

[Mid Valley Duck]

3 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said:

24 members calling for significant snow 

These are the 6z GEFS

[Front Ranger]

Just now, the_convergence_zone said:

The giant El Niño magnet must be pulling this thing to California. 

I didn't think such a ridiculous GFS/Euro battle was still possible inside of 100 hours in these modern times. 

It's funny, when the GFS went into fail mode for this event a few days ago in the mid range, it was on its own for a bit - and looking like it was going to score a coup. Now it's looking like it will end up more wrong than most the other models.

It's probably off for 3-4 days out now as well.

[LowerGarfield]

Here was a fun photo we took on Feb 7th, 2014 taken at my place 1 block from Whale Park (the beach) in Cannon Beach. Some friends built the surfman.

[MossMan]

Just now, iFred said:

A few days in advanced it looks like a decent event, but not 2008 grade, but then a I think a day before it looked like it was going to be something serious. My gut says there are a couple modeled bits that will pleasantly surprise most of us, but we wont see until maybe tomorrow.

Thank you for that shot of anti-nausea med! 
I feel a little better now. 
TIM…No more posting snow maps that show me in the grey!!

[Cascadia_Wx]

1 minute ago, Front Ranger said:

It's funny, when the GFS went into fail mode for this event a few days ago in the mid range, it was on its own for a bit - and looking like it was going to score a coup. Now it's looking like it will end up more wrong than most the other models.

It's probably off for 3-4 days out now as well.

Only caveat is that 72 hours might as well be 720 hours when it comes to modeling arctic air around here.

[Kolk1604]

2 minutes ago, Mid Valley Duck said:

These are the 6z GEFS

Whoops figured the 12z would be out by now. It's slacking 

[Front Ranger]

2 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

Upward trend 

Puget Sounders definitely should not be giving up on snow with the Arctic front. That is one of the hardest things for model to predict.

Randy may be puking now, but come Friday he'll probably have 6" on the ground.

[westcoastexpat]

25 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

You can't disregard the stubborness of the GFS.

I don't think we can disregard the stubbornness of the other models either with their more southerly solution 

[Phishy Wx]

14 minutes ago, LowerGarfield said:

NWS Spokane is probably relying too hard on the GFS. Shocked they are going against the Euro even with the GFS bias. I mean obviously I'd love that but the GFS is on it's own other than partially the CMC. 

I don't see that on their webpage, did they take it down?

[Rubus Leucodermis]

1 minute ago, Front Ranger said:

Puget Sounders definitely should not be giving up on snow with the Arctic front. That is one of the hardest things for model to predict.

Randy may be puking now, but come Friday he'll probably have 6" on the ground.

He was this way last winter, too, yet ended up scoring in the end.

[Front Ranger]

1 minute ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Only caveat is that 72 hours might as well be 720 hours when it comes to modeling arctic air around here.

True to an extent. But gotta love the trends of speeding up the progress southward. This thing looks more legit than most recent ones.

[MossMan]

This was my total snowfall in February 2014!

[BLI snowman]

4 minutes ago, Doinko said:

What are your thoughts on this?

I think the GFS OP is fundamentally misreading the entire situation over the NE Pacific. It needs to be thrown out. 

Beyond that I'm really not sure of anything else. It's looking increasingly likely that we'll see the arctic air push into the Portland area on Friday morning and the offshore energy interact with that more on Saturday. There's still a whole range of possibilities with that. I definitely don't think a dry event is off the table up here though, particularly with what should be a pretty stout dry layer and offshore flow component in the lower/middle levels of the column by Saturday morning. The warm air advection and PWAT assistance pushing in at that point should combat that a little and give us a shot at a needle thread scenario.

We're already potentially getting one of those tonight so we'll see if lightning can strike twice inside of a week. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

These events almost never look good before they start lol.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I’m getting January 2004 vibes. 

[MossMan]

1 minute ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

He was this way last winter, too, yet ended up scoring in the end.

I am by far the biggest weenie on the forum! I learned from the prior weenie king…November 2006 Jim! 

[LowerGarfield]

1 minute ago, Phishy Wx said:

I don't see that on their webpage, did they take it down?

Click on "More Snow Thursday" it's the last side bar on the main page. It's new actually.

[SeanNyberg]

Gun to the head, bet the house, everything on the line, obviously the smart bet is to follow the Euro. It is just statistically more accurate. HOWEVER, and I think this is where a lot of you guys get lost, just because it is accurate more often, doesn't mean it is always more accurate.

The GFS is a great model, even though we love to mock it. And it puts the low farther north for a reason. The Euro is a fabulous model and it puts the low farther south for a reason. Meaning, they could "show their work" and describe why they're guessing what they're guessing. It is not just made up out of nothing.

There is a REASON the GFS wants to put it so far north. But there is also a REASON the Euro wants to drive it south. The Euro has a great track record, but it does screw things up sometimes. The GFS has a very good track record, but it too screws things up.

So this is far from done. Both have been pretty consistent with their placement of the low. There are a number of things that the GFS has sniffed out before the other models in the run up, but the same could be said for the Euro.

The point is (get to it already!) is that the uncertainty is real and not just wish casting. Just because the Euro has a better track record, doesn't mean it is always right, but it DOES have a better track record.

So... knowing ONLY what we know now, if I was forced to bet, I would bet on the Euro SIMPLY based it's better track record. But would I do so confidently? No. Would I be shocked if I lost my bet and the GFS was more accurate? Not at all. Is this still pretty far away with a NUMBER of rare components at play for this region? Yes.

This is the fun part. But disregard anyone who presents any model as gospel. The one thing I can guarantee is that the Thurs-Sunday period will NOT play out exactly as the Euro, GFS, or GEM are forecasting. But which will be closest? Time will tell!

[Front Ranger]

3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I’m getting January 2004 vibes. 

If 2004, 1998, 1968, 1980, 2014, and 2012 all had a baby...