January 2024 Weather in the PNW (Part II)

[Gradient Keeper]

18z NAM 4 pm Tuesday (12-run trend) Nice trend to amplify the ridge and watch the base of the block closely scoot further west a notch.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

47 minutes ago, Tyler Mode said:

For PDX

Here’s the text output. Saturday would be a lot of fun. 6 inches of snow with raging east winds while temps are mainly in the teens. Then no thawing out until Thursday.

[RentonHill]

7 minutes ago, Doinko said:

NAM looks good

 

temps look a little warm?? 

 

[The Winter Warlock]

#TeamGFS

[Eugene-5SW]

10 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Significantly less aggressive across the region, with some laughably big differences in places (21 degrees at PDX). And this is with the same input data being fed into each....

If you compare the Euro to the EPS at the same time, the differences are comparatively minute.

All that tells me is that there just happens to be less spread between the operational and the ensemble mean on the EPS than on the GFS.

The overall ensemble 2m temp spread on the EPS is also plenty wide at that time frame.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Just now, Frontal Snowsquall said:

Here’s the text output. Saturday would be a lot of fun. 6 inches of snow with raging east winds while temps are mainly in the teens. Then no thawing out until Thursday.

When was the last time something like that happened?

[KingstonWX]

I was planning on spending today winterizing and covering spigots. After seeing the latest model runs, I think I might have to take one for the team here. If I avoid winterizing, then surely we will get a foot of snow and a week of below freezing temps. 

I will sacrifice my pipes for the cause. Wish me luck. 

[Perturbed Member]

18z 3km NAM for tonight

[Doinko]

1 minute ago, RentonHill said:

temps look a little warm?? 

 

Should at least be a nice show of snow in the air

[westcoastexpat]

12Z ECMWF ensembles for precipitation in Seattle vs. Portland 

[GobBluth]

3 minutes ago, Frontal Snowsquall said:

Here’s the text output. Saturday would be a lot of fun. 6 inches of snow with raging east winds while temps are mainly in the teens. Then no thawing out until Thursday.

14 degrees with 850 temps above 0? 

[westcoastexpat]

12Z GFS ensembles definitely hinting that the operational run is not to be trusted in the long range - clearly an outlier 

[Front Ranger]

26 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Looks like Whitefish is forecast to hit -30F

The Euro has a -50 burger near there at hour 90 lol. This thing is really not looking watered down much at all now.

[Cascadia_Wx]

2 minutes ago, GobBluth said:

14 degrees with 850 temps above 0? 

Yes

[BLI snowman]

5 minutes ago, Eugene-5SW said:

All that tells me is that there just happens to be less spread between the operational and the ensemble mean on the EPS than on the GFS.

The overall ensemble 2m temp spread on the EPS is also plenty wide at that time frame.

Yes, which absolutely is meaningful at this range.

Of course there is still going to be some spread.

[SeanNyberg]

Big branch down in my front yard from this morning’s winds.

[Deweydog]

3 minutes ago, GobBluth said:

14 degrees with 850 temps barely below 0? 

It can happen.

[Deweydog]

1 minute ago, SeanNyberg said:

Big branch down in my front yard from this morning’s winds.

Did it come off one of those trees?

[BLI snowman]

7 minutes ago, RentonHill said:

temps look a little warm?? 

 

Our window for accumulations looks like it's a little earlier around 09z during the peak precip rates.

Very, very short window and then warms right back up.

[Perturbed Member]

Weather.com/IBM Weather getting colder here. Keeps PDX below freezing Friday night into Tuesday afternoon. Increased the snow totals too. 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

2 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Did it come off one of those trees?

No, it came off a 737 MAX 9.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Looks chilly but we'll see if we can get some surface Arctic air down here. Gonna be close.

[Deweydog]

Just now, Rubus Leucodermis said:

No, it came off a 737 MAX 9.

Found out this morning a fella I went to HS with was on that flight. Lucky…

[MossMan]

Just now, Rubus Leucodermis said:

No, it came off a 737 MAX 9.

That would have been a fun ride if you were sitting in that row of seats, especially the one closest to the gaping hole! Especially super fun if it was snowing as they were rapidly descending (not sure what altitude they were at when that fake door blew out) 

[SeanNyberg]

6 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Did it come off one of those trees?

Yeah, it was pretty loud. Thank God no one was out and about

[Gradient Keeper]

12 minutes ago, GobBluth said:

14 degrees with 850 temps above 0? 

Bitter low level cold/925s

[MossMan]

Speaking of wind…Looks like I might get another good shot in a few hours! 

[Phishy Wx]

Big story looks like the potential (record breaking?) cold over here in Spokane area.  I'd really like to get some snow on the ground prior to the chill down.  need some clear skies, calm winds and snow cover if we're going to challenge records IMO. even without snow cover it has significant potential

[T-Town]

Happy 80th birthday to Jimmy Page. 

[Deweydog]

Just now, SeanNyberg said:

Yeah, it was pretty loud. Thank God no one was out and about

We were at Lewisville Park several years ago, middle of summer without a breath of wind and a branch about that size just decided it was done and fell from about 25 feet onto a 16 year old kid’s head right in front of us. He was out like a light and it about tore his ear off. Can’t remember which year, so tough to make much of it from and analog perspective.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Just now, T-Town said:

Happy 80th birthday to Jimmy Page. 

I BET those guys have had a party or 2 lol

[Rubus Leucodermis]

4 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Found out this morning a fella I went to HS with was on that flight. Lucky…

Lucky it happened on ascent while the fasten seat belts sign was still on. Else more than a few shirts and phones would have been sucked out.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Dewey what is your take on the gfs and euro battle with the weekend deal?

[Phishy Wx]

2 minutes ago, T-Town said:

Happy 80th birthday to Jimmy Page. 

def saw the latest GFS

[Phishy Wx]

2 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

I BET those guys have had a party or 2 lol

probably prefers the UKMET

[Front Ranger]

4 minutes ago, T-Town said:

Happy 80th birthday to Jimmy Page. 

Apparently Jack Daniels is good for your health.

[Winterdog]

All I want out of this is 2" of snow on the ground.  Is that too much to ask?  Let Portland have 15" of snow.  I just want snow on the ground while it's cold and clear. Long live the GFS

[Deweydog]

Just now, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Lucky it happened on ascent while the fasten seat belts sign was still on. Else more than a few shirts and phones would have been sucked out.

There's about 100 things that all had to go right for it to have that outcome. He was apparently about 10 rows forward of it and said the sound was deafening to the point of making him physically ill, although that might have been from the depressurization. He’s been a complete mess since then.

Everyone on that plane is getting paid.

[SnowWillarrive]

6 minutes ago, T-Town said:

Happy 80th birthday to Jimmy Page. 

Vancouver BC folks. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

2 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Apparently Jack Daniels is good for your health.

Well John Belushi enjoyed it.