January 2024 Weather in the PNW (Part II)

[TacomaWx]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

This one is a big big prize with that cold extension showing up now.  This is getting good!

Looks good for us wasn’t expecting there to be much in the Puget sound area besides some fringe stuff. Still not settled yet though… 

[Requiem]

This is a fantastic run for Seattle

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, Winterdog said:

The GFS is being itself again.  Yeah sure, Everett is going to get 10" of snow by Saturday night and be at 11 degrees by 1am Sunday morning.

 

Yeah... cut the snow totals in half for sure.    But still really nice event.  

[Christensen87]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Loop of the GFS... is the second wave that gets Seattle but the deck is cleared out after that wave.   Also sure the snow totals are way overstated per normal with the GFS.    But a really nice snow event with cold air if it verifies.  

Blizzard in North Bend/Enumclaw? Or would this be a situation where the dry east winds eat away at snow totals? 

[Mid Valley Duck]

The GFS shifted 100 miles south. It’s folding like the cheap tent it is. Sorry Seattle, you aren’t going to win this battle.

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, SnowySeeker50 said:

Temps at 1pm during the peak of the snowfall

Epic!

[Rubus Leucodermis]

2 minutes ago, Sandy rocks said:

I tell you what guys, I will happily take the cold and you can have the moisture, if I can escape having any ice. These maps are confusing to me, some say snow, some say ice. I don't know what to believe.

[TT-SEA]

GEM just kills that second wave in favor of putting energy in the first wave and its all gone by Saturday afternoon.  

[Deweydog]

24 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Also be nice if the power stopped flickering... I am recording the new episode of Fargo   A show with lots of winter weather scenes.   But frustratingly inconsistent... beautiful new fallen snow in one scene and then 10 minutes later in show time its all melting and dirty... then 10 minutes later its fresh white again.   I find it distracting.    My wife says she doesn't even notice it.   @Deweydogwould you be distracted?   

Dude… we’ve been watching it too and I’ve commented on this more than once! Loved the fact too that it was a snowed in landscape on Halloween.

[ajreich]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

You have got to be kidding.  This is the warmest frame for Saturday.

No way Portland is at 17 and that’s not all snow. 

[snow_wizard]

Below zero for OLM.

[MossMan]

7 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z GFS on top... new 00Z on the bottom.  

Not bad, it will jog a bit north again and also be juicer. My nausea has ended at least until about 10pm tonight. 

[Parrot]

14 minutes ago, Hawksfan2008 said:

Love the emotions people but at least wait for all the frames  

Aberdeen. Not a meaningful south shift at all, just a different looking system

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, Christensen87 said:

Blizzard in North Bend/Enumclaw? Or would this be a situation where the dry east winds eat away at snow totals? 

Not sure... I can never tell but have seen both.  

[Rubus Leucodermis]

5 minutes ago, SnowySeeker50 said:

Temps at 1pm during the peak of the snowfall

Oh, no! Another 50-burger for Tiger!

[KingstonWX]

2 minutes ago, Mid Valley Duck said:

The GFS shifted 100 miles south. It’s folding like the cheap tent it is. Sorry Seattle, you aren’t going to win this battle.

We don't need to win, we just need to get a participation trophy. 

[TT-SEA]

4 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Dude… we’ve been watching it too and I’ve commented on this more than once! Loved the fact too that it was a snowed in landscape on Halloween.

I was trying not to think of all the weather changes that happen so fast or I would not buy into the story.   The opening scene is on 10/29 and its typical fall scenes but then by 10/31 they have a foot of snow on the ground and we never saw the storm that put it there and no one bothers even mentioning the big storm that must have been impressive.  

 

[Dillymill217]

8 minutes ago, awright-31 said:

I thought I was going to hate this run more but I really can't complain.

My god! Lock it in! I’m approaching 2ft here!

[Cloud]

ridiculous. Teens for Seattle and 50 in Eugene. 

[Deweydog]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

I was trying not to think of all the changes so fast... the opening scene is on 10/29 and its typical fall scenes but then by 10/31 they have a foot of snow on the ground and we never saw the storm that put it there and no one seemed to bother even mentioning the big storm that must have been impressive!  

Kind of keeps with the fact it’s been a pretty bizarre season. We’ve loved it so far.

[Requiem]

Has a blizzard warning ever been issued for the immediate metro area? 2008, maybe? 2004?

[TT-SEA]

4 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Dude… we’ve been watching it too and I’ve commented on this more than once! Loved the fact too that it was a snowed in landscape on Halloween.

Another really annoying aspect for me is that they pretend they can go back and forth between Bismarck and the Twin Cities like its nothing.   Its 8 frickin hours.   We do it every summer.   You don't do it on a whim.   The show makes it seem like they are an hour apart.  

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Just now, Requiem said:

Has a blizzard warning ever been issued for the immediate metro area? 2008, maybe? 2004?

I remember one when I was living in Portland. Either 2004 or 2008. It was for areas east of I-205.

[awright-31]

1 minute ago, Dillymill217 said:

My god! Lock it in! I’m approaching 2ft here!

Careful, don't get too excited. Those snow totals are way overdone, the GFS always does that. 6-10" way more realistic on the high end of things. Maybe a foot in a few spots.

[Cloud]

Once Seattle gets to freezing it stays that way. Buy or sell?

[Frontal Snowsquall]

00z GEM and GFS precip totals Friday 4pm to Saturday 4pm. This system has some juice.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

13 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

This doesn't look like Seattle missing out to me.

The trend is bad, this run tomorrow night will show 3 inches in Seattle.  I'd be ok with that even. I'd love to see Seattle get buried and be cold a fee days below freezing cold. Been a long time.

 

[KingstonWX]

Just now, Cloud said:

Once Seattle gets to freezing it stays that way. Buy or sell?

Go long on 100x leverage. 

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Kind of keeps with the fact it’s been a pretty bizarre season. We’ve loved it so far.

Great story though... definitely back in form this season.   My wife has been complaining about having to wait a week between episodes.   We have become so used to being able to watch an entire season of shows whenever you want.  

[awright-31]

Just now, awright-31 said:

Careful, don't get too excited. Those snow totals are way overdone, the GFS always does that. 6-10" way more realistic on the high end of things. Maybe a foot in a few spots.

Then again, in the GFS' mind this snow falls with temps in the upper teens - low 20s so that ratio is going to be crazy.

[Mid Valley Duck]

7 minutes ago, Parrot said:

Aberdeen. Not a meaningful south shift at all, just a different looking system

Not a meaningful southern shift? I can’t say I agree with your assessment. 

 

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

1 minute ago, awright-31 said:

Careful, don't get too excited. Those snow totals are way overdone, the GFS always does that. 6-10" way more realistic on the high end of things. Maybe a foot in a few spots.

Not that we should believe the GFS literally, but if the temps are that cold, qpf would be higher than it normally is for a Seattle snow.  

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

Just now, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

Not that we should believe the GFS literally, but if the temps are that cold, qpf ratios would be higher than it normally is for a Seattle snow.  

 

[Timmy]

Snow already mixing in here. Gonna be a good night!

[Chewbacca Defense]

7 hours ago, jakerepp said:

Right, not entirely sure how ETOPS would work in that situation. Oxygen masks definitely wouldn't last very long. It's generally gives enough time for the plane to drop to an altitude you can breathe at. I think the number I remember was 7 minutes but it definitely depends on the aircraft. 

I know we are supposed to stop talking about airplanes, but just to close the loop on this, found out tonight that part of ETOPS is planning sufficient fuel to deal with emergencies such as rapid decompression or an engine failure.  So they would be able to drop to 10,000 feet and have sufficient fuel to fly the distance allowed by their ETOPS  certification.

[TT-SEA]

FWIW... the GEM is did not shift at all on Saturday.   It exactly the same as its 12Z run by then.   Consistency is what we are looking for. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

4 minutes ago, Cloud said:

Once Seattle gets to freezing it stays that way. Buy or sell?

Like forever?

[westcoastexpat]

2 minutes ago, awright-31 said:

Then again, in the GFS' mind this snow falls with temps in the upper teens - low 20s so that ratio is going to be crazy.

I can't tell you how many times in southern Ontario I was expecting amazing ratios because of the cold temps but ended up with crappy rods and columns as opposed to fluffy dendrites. Sometimes too cold aloft is a bad thing for ratios as well.

[MWG]

I just want enough snow tonight into tomorrow morning the school district cancel school because buses can't even ride on the snow routes lol!  

[Doinko]

Dumping rain and 39, hope we switch over soon