January 2024 Weather in the PNW (Part II)

[Doinko]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

ECMWF still coming in south on Friday... and still way south of GFS.  

What time does PDX fall below freezing on Friday?

[Blizzard777]

Happy for ya all down south…..enjoy !! 
I’m chewing down cheddar chips and I have FroYoBo’s wine  

While I enjoy your photos 

[GHweatherChris]

First official "trace" of snow tonight, nice to see a little appetizer.  It has stopped now, but noice!!

[lowlandsnow]

This run is way colder

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, Doinko said:

What time does PDX fall below freezing on Friday?

10 p.m. on Friday evening and then down into low 20s by morning.  

[lowlandsnow]

[TT-SEA]

Just now, lowlandsnow said:

This run is way colder

Not sure yet... but Portland might be right on the northern fringe on this run.  

[Timmy]

Looks like the low is tracking right over the krtx radar tower

[Doinko]

Just now, lowlandsnow said:

Wow, crazy crash in temps here

[TT-SEA]

Just now, lowlandsnow said:

Keeps dropping... PDX goes below freezing on Friday evening and then falls into the teens by mid morning! 

[Front Ranger]

Absolutely wild how much colder and drier the Euro is for western WA in 72 hours compared to the GFS. It's honestly getting to the point that I'm not sure we've seen this much divergence this close for an Arctic air mass.

[TT-SEA]

Portland now needs the northward shift.   Welcome to Seattle's pain.  

[lowlandsnow]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Not sure yet... but Portland might be right on the northern fringe on this run.  

Yeah Portland is right on the northern fringe only gets a dusting, I think any hope for Seattle is gone

[Mid Valley Duck]

Euro is just so dry to the NE side of the low. 

[the_convergence_zone]

Looks like I’m going to need my sunglasses on Saturday. 

[MossMan]

Feel a bit better now that I just watched MS’s new update. I have a feeling that secondary low on Saturday will become more well known in the models and deliver some good stuff to Western Wa. I have to remind myself that this happens so often with these setups where not much shows in the model world until we are almost up against it. That happened in December 2008 among many many other events. I don’t think this is over for us up here…It could just be the beginning. 
Temp down to 36.9 with more lumps. 

[SnowWillarrive]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Portland now needs the northward shift.   Welcome to Seattle's pain.  

Pretty soon San Francisco will get all the snow

[Requiem]

I'm sure Euro will swing north... but maybe at face value this gets Eugene in on some arctic fun 

[TT-SEA]

Total snow from Friday evening through Saturday evening.     Maybe nobody gets much snow.   Did not expect that.  

[SnowySeeker50]

Euro doesn't even want to cross the WA border with precip

[Mid Valley Duck]

Euro is very dry. The GFS is world's apart with track, landfall and QPF with that system. The euro doesnt even show the surface low out ahead of the parent low.

[Snownerd3000]

[TT-SEA]

So the 12Z ECMWF run shifted way south... the 00Z run shifts way south again.      

[Rubus Leucodermis]

15 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Arctic front snow on Thursday... 

Well, at least it saves it from being a totally dry blast.

[Christensen87]

GFS is right. 

[Roman-Dallas Snow-Zone]

1 minute ago, Mid Valley Duck said:

Euro is very dry. The GFS is world's apart with track, landfall and QPF with that system. The euro doesnt even show the surface low out ahead of the parent low.

Central/southern WV special coming up?

[SnowWillarrive]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

So the 12Z ECMWF run shifted way south... the 00Z run shifts way south again.      

Germans  led the way 

[Doinko]

1 minute ago, Mid Valley Duck said:

Euro is very dry. The GFS is world's apart with track, landfall and QPF with that system. The euro doesnt even show the surface low out ahead of the parent low.

Wonder if it'll be like Feb 2014 when the surface lows showed up almost right before the event

[Front Ranger]

3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Total snow from Friday evening through Saturday evening.     Maybe nobody gets much snow.   Did not expect that.  

While I'm in Tahoe...f*ck, I'd give it all up for you guys.

[TT-SEA]

The comparison between the 00Z run last night (on top) and new 00Z tonight (bottom) is pretty stark. 

And the GFS also shifted south.  

[lowlandsnow]

1 minute ago, SnowWillarrive said:

Germans  led the way 

Never thought the ICON would be right

[GobBluth]

And no second low for Seattle.

[Requiem]

Just now, Doinko said:

Wonder if it'll be like Feb 2014 when the surface lows showed up almost right before the event

I'm also thinking that. GEM and GFS like a more battleground type event with a pretty sharp temp gradient-- EURO on the other hand is much colder and like 2014 shifts those lows very far south.

[OysterPrintout]

Considering the current GFS progression doesn't feel like the low going a little south on this run is that bad at all for PDX. Still just rain here tonight.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

3 minutes ago, Mid Valley Duck said:

Euro is very dry. The GFS is world's apart with track, landfall and QPF with that system. The euro doesnt even show the surface low out ahead of the parent low.

[Mid Valley Duck]

Just now, GobBluth said:

And no second low for Seattle.

No first low. The second low is the parent low. The Euro is bearish on the surface low developing out ahead of the parent low. The Euro and UKMET say no to that feature. The NCEP products and GEM say yes. For Oregon we'd want the structure to be the GFS with the Euro's track and landfall. 

[MossMan]

1 minute ago, GobBluth said:

And no second low for Seattle.

Yet. Don’t forget this is still Tuesday…We are still several days away from this unfolding. 

[Christensen87]

1 minute ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Literally just watched this episode

[Blizzard777]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

The comparison between the 00Z run last night (on top) and new 00Z tonight (bottom) is pretty stark. 

And the GFS also shifted south.  

I can cut and paste it back up north!  Wine does wonders 

[Doinko]

1 minute ago, Requiem said:

I'm also thinking that. GEM and GFS like a more battleground type event with a pretty sharp temp gradient-- EURO on the other hand is much colder and like 2014 shifts those lows very far south.

You can kind of see something like that on the ICON, with those lows nailing Salem with snow