January 2024 Weather in the PNW (Part II)

[RentonHill]

Just now, Christensen87 said:

So, who is who? Nice to see some faces! 

A lady never tells 

[SnowySeeker50]

Just need it to continue for an hour.

[TacomaWx]

4 minutes ago, SnowySeeker50 said:

Nvm, now moderate snow and 26f

Yeah the grounds starting to get coated a bit here atleast. Slow process so far this evening but it works lol 

[Blizzard777]

28 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Just did!! Then they might go into the freezer along with Christmas 2017 and February 2022 snowballs! 

Lol, I still have a plastic baggy of Heat from the 2021 heatwave!!  I also remember cooking and egg on the ground didn’t work for me

[DeepFriedEgg]

4 minutes ago, Perturbed Member said:

A little worried with the increasing WAA aloft being shown on some of these models. RGEM shoves warm air between 800-900mb with up to +2c or +3c at 850mb. Gross...

I hope this is models being a bit too aggressive with warming aloft. Would be a shame to waste our precip this way. 

 

It is a delicate balance because from what I understand that WAA is what is causing more precip in the first place.

Kinda seems like there wasn’t enough time to establish a deep enough cold layer before precip arrived. Fully expecting a Dec 2021 (I think)  repeat when we basically had a half sleet half snow storm.

[Olive1010]

D**n I hope we get a major snowstorm and not crappy ice

[Sandy rocks]

Well something must be going to happen, the schools here in Sandy closed for tomorrow. Although the district does go up to Timberline. Glad to see the Washingtonians getting so much snow. The pictures are beautiful. The best snow is when it's a surprise.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

14 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said:

Deformation Saturday, let's go..... 

It will hit you, I almost feel 100% on that. This moisture shield will go way north and I still think the low will come ashore close to Astoria or seaside 

[SouthHillFrosty]

2 minutes ago, SnowySeeker50 said:

Just need it to continue for an hour.

Is this on the east hill?

[Olive1010]

Just now, Sandy rocks said:

Well something must be going to happen, the schools here in Sandy closed for tomorrow. Although the district does go up to Timberline. Glad to see the Washingtonians getting so much snow. The pictures are beautiful. The best snow is when it's a surprise.

My school is ending at 1, cut short

[TT-SEA]

Just got a text that Snoqualmie Valley schools are closed tomorrow.   Pretty wimpy for maybe 1-2 inches of snow across the district.   They have had school in session with this much snow many times particularly since the snow is done now and it won't be snowing in the morning.   But apparently they had not one but two buses sideways on hills this afternoon so I guess they figured they could burn a snow day in a Nino winter.  

[LowerGarfield]

Correction to my earlier post. I am sitting at 3.5 inches of snow today. I previously misread my 2.8 as 3.8.

Snow is starting to taper off. 25F

[MossMan]

Now this is something we all must experience in our lifetime! 

[ShawniganLake]

5 minutes ago, Blizzard777 said:

Lol, I still have a plastic baggy of Heat from the 2021 heatwave!!  I also remember cooking and egg on the ground didn’t work for me

I always bag up some wildfire smoke each summer now.  Just for the memories. 

[MossMan]

4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Just got a text that Snoqualmie Valley schools are closed tomorrow.   Pretty wimpy for maybe 1-2 inches of snow across the district.   They have had school in session with this much snow many times particularly since the snow is done now and it won't be snowing in the morning.   But apparently they had not one but two buses sideways on hills this afternoon so I guess they figured they could burn a snow day in a Nino winter.  

Little do they know they will need to shut down for weeks in February! It’s coming! 

[SnowySeeker50]

2 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Is this on the east hill?

Lake Tapps PKWY. Also it looks like the drier air is starting to win out a bit. Radar great overhead but back to light snow

[Fircrest]

I'm in the sweet spot here with that band of snow streaming in. 

[Blizzard777]

1 minute ago, ShawniganLake said:

I always bag up some wildfire smoke each summer now.  Just for the memories. 

Omg lol  

 

[ShawniganLake]

19.9F.  I’ve left the 20s behind.  Still a few flurries here. 2” on the ground. 

[Sandy rocks]

I still do not understand why we would get ice. The storm is far south of us, arctic air will be south of us, the gorge will be raging, it makes no sense. I have have lived east of Portland for almost 40 years and this is not playing by any rules that I know. Freezing rain generally happens when a warm system is coming over us and the ground is frozen or a storm is north of us. Please someone explain this. 

[TacomaWx]

It ain’t much but enough for the ground to be white and still coming down decently! Should go on a bit longer atleast. 

[BlvuSumit]

Satisfied. 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

19.4˚F. Buh-bye 20’s! See you again Saturday.

[Cloud]

If SEA gets something out of this (future events tbd) it will have recorded 8 consecutive winters with measurable snowfall dating back to 2016-2017. Least was 0.7” in 2019-2020, which was almost a dud but not quite. That’s a decent stretch. 

[Perturbed Member]

15 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Hope to maintain the sleet profile…

What are your thoughts on where this is going? Seems like the models are still in flux. 

[DeepFriedEgg]

2 minutes ago, Sandy rocks said:

I still do not understand why we would get ice. The storm is far south of us, arctic air will be south of us, the gorge will be raging, it makes no sense. I have have lived east of Portland for almost 40 years and this is not playing by any rules that I know. Freezing rain generally happens when a warm system is coming over us and the ground is frozen or a storm is north of us. Please someone explain this. 

Pretty sure Dec 2021 was mostly sleet west metro. Damaging ice south metro.
Right now northeast metro is in a good spot as usual.

[jcmcgaffey]

11 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Just got a text that Snoqualmie Valley schools are closed tomorrow.   Pretty wimpy for maybe 1-2 inches of snow across the district.   They have had school in session with this much snow many times particularly since the snow is done now and it won't be snowing in the morning.   But apparently they had not one but two buses sideways on hills this afternoon so I guess they figured they could burn a snow day in a Nino winter.  

Seattle schools announced at the beginning of the school year that there would be no school closures but just remote learning days so that no days have to be made up during the summer. Sort of ruins snow days for the kids though. 

[BLI snowman]

5 minutes ago, Sandy rocks said:

I still do not understand why we would get ice. The storm is far south of us, arctic air will be south of us, the gorge will be raging, it makes no sense. I have have lived east of Portland for almost 40 years and this is not playing by any rules that I know. Freezing rain generally happens when a warm system is coming over us and the ground is frozen or a storm is north of us. Please someone explain this. 

No serious threat of freezing rain for the Portland metro this weekend. The possibility of an icy transition next week has been tossed around, but the ZR threat on Saturday ends roughly around Salem.

What is looking increasingly likely however is a fair amount of sleet mixed in with the snow on Saturday, due to a warm layer of air aloft advecting in as the offshore low deepens. It will be a delicate balance, particularly as you move south from the river.

Edited January 12 by BLI snowman

[SilverFallsAndrew]

24 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

I’ve always figured every 100 feet of elevation probably makes about a 15% increase in snow on average around here. Assuming 5” at sea level that would work out to . .  . 

Sea level: 5”

100 ft: 5.8”

200 ft: 6.7”

300 ft: 7.7”

400 ft: 8.9”

500 ft: 10.2”

600 ft: 11.7

700 ft: 13.5”

800 ft: 15.5”

900 ft: 17.8”

1,000 ft: 20.5”

 

That seems really accurate as a rule of thumb. I’ve averaged close to 40” here at 1600’ but being further south it makes sense I would average a bit less than a similar elevation up there. But the 15% rule checks out too based on what I observe driving from 1600’ down to 200’ every day. 

[Phil]

Wind chill down to -10°F at BLI. With the exception of last December, we haven’t had a wind chill that low since 2019.

[MV_snow]

13 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Just got a text that Snoqualmie Valley schools are closed tomorrow.   Pretty wimpy for maybe 1-2 inches of snow across the district.   They have had school in session with this much snow many times particularly since the snow is done now and it won't be snowing in the morning.   But apparently they had not one but two buses sideways on hills this afternoon so I guess they figured they could burn a snow day in a Nino winter.  

Apparently they haven’t seen the latest GEM if they think they can just throw away a snow day!

[LowerGarfield]

20 minutes ago, Christensen87 said:

So colorful

I'm enjoying my time in the pink!

[Phil]

1 hour ago, Jakewestsalem said:

Got a tornado watch issued for tonight in central Arkansas.

I may not get much sleep tonight!

Careful dude, these nocturnal events are the ones that kill.

[DeepFriedEgg]

1 minute ago, Perturbed Member said:

What are your thoughts on where this is going? Seems like the models are still in flux. 

Yes pretty much have no idea where this is going. Maybe 00z euro will finally lock in.

Kind of disappointed the Friday moisture completely fizzled, seemed like that would have been snow.

has there ever been a case where low dove south in the lead up to an event? Seems like they always trend north last minute as @MR.SNOWMIZER is thinking.

[Cascadia_Wx]

Just now, Phil said:

Careful dude, these nocturnal events are the ones that kill.

Is that what you told your girlfriend last week?

[Deweydog]

2 minutes ago, Sandy rocks said:

I still do not understand why we would get ice. The storm is far south of us, arctic air will be south of us, the gorge will be raging, it makes no sense. I have have lived east of Portland for almost 40 years and this is not playing by any rules that I know. Freezing rain generally happens when a warm system is coming over us and the ground is frozen or a storm is north of us. Please someone explain this. 

The cold is mainly low level. We briefly get some deep (although not THAT deep) advection tomorrow but that diminishes pretty quickly tomorrow night and we transition almost immediately to a gap event. The approaching low is purely a Pacific system with stout warm advection even north of the low, hence some of the precip amounts. The difference between this and, say, January 2017 is the fact that storm had quite a bit of mid level cold advecting into the system. This is not the case this time around.

All this being said, it’s a close call and the warm layer only lasts a few hours but they may be the most critical hours. Never a dull moment!!!!

[Blizzard777]

7 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

It ain’t much but enough for the ground to be white and still coming down decently! Should go on a bit longer atleast. 

We did slightly better than Randy perhaps even twice as much!   Do we count this as a win?   Go South Sound! 

[TT-SEA]

4 minutes ago, jcmcgaffey said:

Seattle schools announced at the beginning of the school year that there would be no school closures but just remote learning days so that no days have to be made up during the summer. Sort of ruins snow days for the kids though. 

Yeah... it really sucks when they have to eat into summer so it makes sense.  

Fridays are early release here and MLK day is Monday so its a 4 day weekend for my daughter.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

12 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Now this is something we all must experience in our lifetime! 

I have spent hrs researching this and thinking about it. If it happened now it would be the same damage as a hurricane hitting the golf coast. In some of the snowier spots it was more like 6 and 7 feet. I always wonder how deep it was around hood canal. I know the track of the storm was ideal and if Seattle had 5 feet some places might of had 8 feet. It's just incredible.  

 

[Sandy rocks]

Thanks for the info about the ice. I would think it would be ice if it was transitioning. I have seen that many times. It has started snowing here in Sandy, temperature dropped from 38 to 34 in the last few minutes. Surprising.