Roman-Dallas Snow-Zone Posted January 16 Report Share Posted January 16 2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: You have a little elevation don't you? How did you do last February/March? I’m only at 500’ and got a few inches of slush. But anyone 800’ and up got double Atleast during that time 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 16 Report Share Posted January 16 2 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said: RGEm is my new favorite model Amazingly... it has been trending a little north with lower snow amounts each run (18Z continues this trend) and still ends up like this. 2 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted January 16 Report Share Posted January 16 1 hour ago, Cascadia_Wx said: Seems like whenever I make a post there’s some typo I feel compelled to fix, which means I get the ugly edited tag. I wonder why other posters don’t have that. Who's gonna tell him? 1 Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted January 16 Report Share Posted January 16 6 minutes ago, Front Ranger said: For the PNW, the most impressive aspect of this Arctic event has undoubtedly been the high temps. A few examples. BLI's high of 10 on 1/12 was their coldest January high temp on record, and their second coldest ever after the 9 seen in Dec 1968 SEA's high of 22 was their coldest high since Dec 1990, and their coldest January high since 1969 SLE's high of 23 was their coldest since Dec 1998, and their coldest in January since 1979 Omak's high of 1 was their coldest since January 1969 The lows were equally impressive for some areas. I made a post about this in the Mountain West topic: https://theweatherforums.com/index.php?/topic/20-mountain-west-discussion/page/129/#comments Some highlights... Great Falls, MT hit -37 (tied their all-time coldest January temp from 1969, only colder temps on record are Dec 1983 and Dec 1968) Bozeman hit -45 (coldest January temp since 1957, tied with Dec 2022 as second coldest temp on record after Jan 1957 and Dec 1983) Havre, MT hit -44 (coldest January temperature since 1969) Gillette, WY hit -35 (coldest January temp since 1930) Greeley, CO hit -29 (coldest January temp since 1962) Pullman, WA hit -21 (coldest January temp since 1982, on par with what they saw in 1950 and 1957) Mazama, WA hit -29 (second coldest January temp on record, after January 1969) Walla Walla: -14 (coldest January temp since 1957) Bend: -6 (coldest January temp since 1980) 8 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dave Posted January 16 Report Share Posted January 16 Light ZR now. 27 degrees. It is dead calm. This cold won't scour out very quickly without some mixing from up above. I'm a bit concerned. 4 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 16 Report Share Posted January 16 7 minutes ago, iFred said: The summer of 2019 was pretty active and thinking back, a lot of our Nino-to-Nina summers have had some pretty fun light shows and bouts of active weather to enjoy. That said, still feeling pretty great about end-of-month and February for our next shot. Summer 2019 was technically a 2nd year niño summer (uncommon but they have a unique character to them). Niño-to-Niña summers are the absolute worst. I don’t think there’s anything enjoyable or interesting about them, but that’s just me. Especially ones with descending westerly shear (which this year will have). I’m not ready to jump on the Niña bandwagon yet. But if that is the route we’re taking..just please no? I’m not ready. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 16 Report Share Posted January 16 18Z GFS shifted a little north. I don't think freezing rain totals will this significant out here thanks to the east wind. 1 1 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted January 16 Report Share Posted January 16 3 minutes ago, Front Ranger said: The lows were equally impressive for some areas. I made a post about this in the Mountain West topic: https://theweatherforums.com/index.php?/topic/20-mountain-west-discussion/page/129/#comments Some highlights... Great Falls, MT hit -37 (tied their all-time coldest January temp from 1969, only colder temps on record are Dec 1983 and Dec 1968) Bozeman hit -45 (coldest January temp since 1957, tied with Dec 2022 as second coldest temp on record after Jan 1957 and Dec 1983) Havre, MT hit -44 (coldest January temperature since 1969) Gillette, WY hit -35 (coldest January temp since 1930) Greeley, CO hit -29 (coldest January temp since 1962) Pullman, WA hit -21 (coldest January temp since 1982, on par with what they saw in 1950 and 1957) Mazama, WA hit -29 (second coldest January temp on record, after January 1969) Walla Walla: -14 (coldest January temp since 1957) Bend: -6 (coldest January temp since 1980) The station a few miles south of my cabin hit -36! cabin was -29. 4 2 Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 16 Report Share Posted January 16 Just now, Phil said: Summer 2019 was technically a 2nd year niño summer (uncommon but they have a unique character to them). Niño-to-Niña summers are the absolute worst. I don’t think there’s anything enjoyable or interesting about them, but that’s just me. Especially ones with descending westerly shear (which this year will have). I’m not ready to jump on the Niña bandwagon yet. But if that is the route we’re taking..just please no? I’m not ready. 2010 was one of the last truly nice summers we had around here. Strong Nino to Nina transition. 4 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 16 Report Share Posted January 16 3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: Amazingly... it has been trending a little north with lower snow amounts each run (18Z continues this trend) and still ends up like this. It will wobble south by 10 miles and I will be in the Pepto after a bunch of freezing rain!! Let’s do this! Let’s make this event better than 2009 or 2014 or whatever lame dry blast there has been Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted January 16 Report Share Posted January 16 Just now, TT-SEA said: 18Z GFS shifted a little north. I don't think freezing rain totals will this significant out here thanks to the east wind. Thursday night might end up messy also. Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 16 Report Share Posted January 16 1 minute ago, TT-SEA said: 18Z GFS shifted a little north. I don't think freezing rain totals will this significant out here thanks to the east wind. Thanks for ruining my day Tim. 1 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snownerd3000 Posted January 16 Report Share Posted January 16 1 hour ago, BLI snowman said: My 2nd favorite Portland viral snow video after this legendary gem. Hoping for some 10th anniversary magic! I lowkey hope this couple is on this forum, lurking. 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 16 Report Share Posted January 16 Just now, TT-SEA said: 18Z GFS shifted a little north. I don't think freezing rain totals will this significant out here thanks to the east wind. The good news is those ZR totals for the WV are not incredibly damaging either. Other than they will be piling on existing ZR in some areas. You can see the dry area eating into the precip shield as it approaches SLE. Not a great sign for low levels mixing out quickly, but on the other hand less ice is probably better. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cascadia_Wx Posted January 16 Report Share Posted January 16 1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: 2010 was one of the last truly nice summers we had around here. Strong Nino to Nina transition. I loved that summer so much. Still can remember the late night marine pushes and lots of evening temps in the upper 50s before midnight in July. 5 Quote Summer grows while Winter goes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 16 Report Share Posted January 16 1 minute ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said: Thursday night might end up messy also. Not buying that... ECMWF is not even close on Thursday Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post Roman-Dallas Snow-Zone Posted January 16 Popular Post Report Share Posted January 16 Awesome looking sky to the southwest. love the contrast of dark clouds with snow on ground 15 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dave Posted January 16 Report Share Posted January 16 7 minutes ago, MossMan said: Thanks for ruining my day Tim. You're supposed to put your plow blade on after the snow has already fallen. It's pretty much your fault. 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tanis Leach Posted January 16 Report Share Posted January 16 3 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: I'm looking at @Deweydog and @BLI snowman for this one. What would a couple historical comps be for this stretch? This reminds me quite a bit of 2004, but on the other end the temps west of the Cascades have been so impressive. Some kind of hybrid between 2004 and 1968? A hybrid between the 2 is accurate. 1968 had more time for the cold to get established, especially in the middle to upper atmosphere? which was enough to keep Portland in snow, plus the airmass appeared to be stronger for west of the rockies. 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frontal Snowsquall Posted January 16 Report Share Posted January 16 1 hour ago, Dave said: Incoming! 1 hour ago, bainbridgekid said: Usually radar coverage is awful down by Eugene. The fact it's showing up so well must mean it's pretty intense down there I would think. Leading edge of moisture is looking pretty intense. Just looked at the ODOT cameras and things are rapidly deteriorating down there. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 16 Report Share Posted January 16 3 minutes ago, MossMan said: Thanks for ruining my day Tim. Did you see the RGEM map I posted?? Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 16 Report Share Posted January 16 Just now, TT-SEA said: Not buying that... ECMWF is not even close on Thursday We cannot buy any excitement this winter. I am still holding hope that February will bring a nice to epic event that actual flows some frozen moisture over us this time. What a terrible outcome from this lovely cold air mass we have had…A complete waste. 2 2 2 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted January 16 Report Share Posted January 16 4 hours ago, LowerGarfield said: PAE doesn't? Nope, and unfortunately Everett is a really tricky spot for long term snowfall history. The existing co-op station there in town dates back to the late 1800s but has a really spotty and inaccurate record when it comes to snow. In fact, a lot of the PSCZ microclimate isn't well reflected by any official station's records around there. Though there is a long term station in Monroe that's at least a little better than Everett. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 16 Report Share Posted January 16 Just now, TT-SEA said: Did you see the RGEM map I posted?? I’m in a bad mood (like Jim Nov 2006 bad mood) now and there is no going back. Was going to pull the plow up to the front of the garage but there really is no need now. 1 1 1 2 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted January 16 Report Share Posted January 16 6 minutes ago, Phil said: Summer 2019 was technically a 2nd year niño summer (uncommon but they have a unique character to them). Niño-to-Niña summers are the absolute worst. I don’t think there’s anything enjoyable or interesting about them, but that’s just me. Especially ones with descending westerly shear (which this year will have). I’m not ready to jump on the Niña bandwagon yet. But if that is the route we’re taking..just please no? I’m not ready. Last five: 2016, 2010, 2007, 2005, 1998. Seem like a pretty mixed bag overall, though I can see why you haven't enjoyed most of them. Second or third year Ninas tend to be the worst (hottest) here. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 16 Report Share Posted January 16 I think if anything js going to happen up there in February it’ll have to be late in the month (especially with the PV restrengthening). Forcing from the MJO and El Niño spatiotemporally align from 1/25 to 2/15. I’d expect a strong niño pattern to establish at the beginning of that window (nationwide torch centered in Midwest/Plains) followed by a westward retrogression of the ridge into a +TNH/+PNA type pattern. After that, I’m not sure yet. 1 1 1 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cascadia_Wx Posted January 16 Report Share Posted January 16 PDX holding at 26 on the hour. 26 here as well. Temperatures should peak for the day in the next hour or so. 9 Quote Summer grows while Winter goes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWx Posted January 16 Report Share Posted January 16 1 minute ago, Phil said: I think if anything js going to happen up there in February it’ll have to be late in the month (especially with the PV restrengthening). Forcing from the MJO and El Niño spatiotemporally align from 1/25 to 2/15. I’d expect a strong niño pattern to establish at the beginning of that window (nationwide torch centered in Midwest/Plains) followed by a westward retrogression of the ridge into a +TNH/+PNA type pattern. After that, I’m not sure yet. Lol we just had a historic blast Phillip. You said it wasn’t coming and it came so I don’t believe you. 6 2 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 16 Report Share Posted January 16 1 minute ago, Phil said: I think if anything js going to happen up there in February it’ll have to be late in the month (especially with the PV restrengthening). Forcing from the MJO and El Niño spatiotemporally align from 1/25 to 2/15. I’d expect a strong niño pattern to establish at the beginning of that window (nationwide torch centered in Midwest/Plains) followed by a westward retrogression of the ridge into a +TNH/+PNA type pattern. After that, I’m not sure yet. This actually makes me feel better since you were so epically wrong about January here! 1 1 2 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted January 16 Report Share Posted January 16 2 minutes ago, Phil said: I think if anything js going to happen up there in February it’ll have to be late in the month (especially with the PV restrengthening). Forcing from the MJO and El Niño spatiotemporally align from 1/25 to 2/15. I’d expect a strong niño pattern to establish at the beginning of that window (nationwide torch centered in Midwest/Plains) followed by a westward retrogression of the ridge into a +TNH/+PNA type pattern. After that, I’m not sure yet. Already looks like that pattern is establishing by day 7. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frontal Snowsquall Posted January 16 Report Share Posted January 16 15 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: Amazingly... it has been trending a little north with lower snow amounts each run (18Z continues this trend) and still ends up like this. Looks like a good snowstorm for Vancouver BC. I saw they were calling for 10-20cm snow in their Metro area. Which is around 4”-8”. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWx Posted January 16 Report Share Posted January 16 Looking like another sub 40 day here. 35 degrees at 2pm. Will be interesting to see how long the cold air holds out here at the surface. It’s definitely not going to snow here at all with this. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted January 16 Report Share Posted January 16 6 minutes ago, MossMan said: We cannot buy any excitement this winter. I am still holding hope that February will bring a nice to epic event that actual flows some frozen moisture over us this time. What a terrible outcome from this lovely cold air mass we have had…A complete waste. If i was you i would be excited for tonight, you have a better chance than me. My chance will be Thursday evening. Maybe some tonight. 7 Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doinko Posted January 16 Report Share Posted January 16 4 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said: PDX holding at 26 on the hour. 26 here as well. Temperatures should peak for the day in the next hour or so. I wonder if the freezing rain coming will keep our snowpack in place for longer. It's been a pretty great stretch with snow on the ground. 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phishy Wx Posted January 16 Report Share Posted January 16 40 minutes ago, iFred said: The summer of 2019 was pretty active and thinking back, a lot of our Nino-to-Nina summers have had some pretty fun light shows and bouts of active weather to enjoy. That said, still feeling pretty great about end-of-month and February for our next shot. Graupel season gunna be LIT 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowWillarrive Posted January 16 Report Share Posted January 16 6 minutes ago, MossMan said: I’m in a bad mood (like Jim Nov 2006 bad mood) now and there is no going back. Was going to pull the plow up to the front of the garage but there really is no need now. You are not the only one. Everyone around us is getting blasted with snow and ice. This might be my least favorite event in years. 5 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted January 16 Report Share Posted January 16 1 minute ago, TacomaWx said: Looking like another sub 40 day here. 35 degrees at 2pm. Will be interesting to see how long the cold air holds out here at the surface. It’s definitely not going to snow here at all with this. With offshore i bet the cold will hold on well. 1 Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 16 Report Share Posted January 16 5 minutes ago, Phil said: I think if anything js going to happen up there in February it’ll have to be late in the month (especially with the PV restrengthening). Forcing from the MJO and El Niño spatiotemporally align from 1/25 to 2/15. I’d expect a strong niño pattern to establish at the beginning of that window (nationwide torch centered in Midwest/Plains) followed by a westward retrogression of the ridge into a +TNH/+PNA type pattern. After that, I’m not sure yet. 3 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted January 16 Report Share Posted January 16 12 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said: I loved that summer so much. Still can remember the late night marine pushes and lots of evening temps in the upper 50s before midnight in July. It almost made Tim leave! 1 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post Lars43 Posted January 16 Popular Post Report Share Posted January 16 12 minutes ago, Frontal Snowsquall said: Leading edge of moisture is looking pretty intense. Just looked at the ODOT cameras and things are rapidly deteriorating down there. Sitting at 24, rain has started. It’s an absolute glacier. 9 1 4 2 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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