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January Weather In The PNW 2024 (Part III) - The Warming Shot


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5 minutes ago, westcoastexpat said:

NWS snowfall accumulation analysis for the 2023-24 season so far, as of this morning 

Screenshot_20240118-175412.png

Shows me in the darker shade of blue.. They think I’ve had more snow than Randy!

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(Previous name: MillCreekMike)

Everett, WA (elev. 180’)

2023-2024 Snowfall:

1/11: Tr.

1/18: Tr.

Go M’s

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Hope this helps re: freezing rain. Cliff Mass is either misinformed or making stuff up.

http://www.theweatherprediction.com/habyhints/210/

“The rain drops could be well above freezing before striking a freezing surface. The warmth of the rain drops could even be enough to warm the temperature above freezing and end the freezing rain event. The depth and maximum warmth of the elevated warm layer aloft and the depth and minimum chill of the low level PBL determine the temperature of a rain drop just before it strikes the surface. A warm and deep EWL and a shallow layer of lower PBL temperatures below freezing will allow raindrops to fall that may be well above freezing. These "warm" raindrops will take much longer to freeze than the "supercooled" raindrops. The warm raindrops must be both cooled to the freezing point and crystallized to ice.”

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3 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

These past two weeks, we have had Cliff Mass destroy his reputation and Sean leave his legacy on here. What a time🤣🤣

This Arctic Blast may not have given us good snow but it definitely gave us some good content

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(Previous name: MillCreekMike)

Everett, WA (elev. 180’)

2023-2024 Snowfall:

1/11: Tr.

1/18: Tr.

Go M’s

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But actually, the article I linked also contains an error re: latent heat release during freezing. :lol: I just spotted it now.

The release of latent heat occurs *during the phase change* from liquid to solid. A supercooled droplet hasn’t undergone a phase change yet, and has not released latent heat to freeze.

Surprised how many professional meteorologists seem to get that wrong. It’s important! 

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13 minutes ago, westcoastexpat said:

NWS snowfall accumulation analysis for the 2023-24 season so far, as of this morning 

Screenshot_20240118-175412.png

55EAAE75-356C-4179-8CAA-C6156C4BD6C3.gif

Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 20 (Most recent: Feb 13, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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The reason latent heat release is tied to the phase change is because the molecular re-arrangement (from the amorphous state to a lattice) cannot occur without a loss of potential/kinetic energy.

So no, super-cooled droplets do not negate the release of latent heat during the freezing process. It just happens faster when the phase change ultimately occurs.

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1 hour ago, CliffMassYelledAtMe said:

If you're bored and want to know some of what fed Cliff's big ego, you could read this from 2009: https://www.seattlemet.com/news-and-city-life/2009/09/weather-1009

The fact that Cliff doesn't get those numbers anymore and that YouTube folks like Snyder are getting some of the following Cliff had may have somehting to do with it. But as in most cases of classical tragedy, his downfall has continued to be his own hubris.

Thanks for that link. I skimmed through it and found it to be quite interesting. 

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36 minutes ago, westcoastexpat said:

NWS snowfall accumulation analysis for the 2023-24 season so far, as of this morning 

Screenshot_20240118-175412.png

Here's a higher resolution version: Seasonal Snowfall

snowfall_season_d.2024011812.0_600_600._13369_557._12503_1423_dem.shading_im.m.0.0.0.0.0.0.0.png.7cbf31d82e97fe19bc119d80add16c13.png

And specifically for the Puget Sound

snowfall_season_d.2024011812.0_600_600._13393_694._12970_1117_dem.shading_im.m.0.0.0.0.0.0.0.png.800cf94f0b4de683b9cb3fa3994c955b.png

legend_snowfall_season_d_dem_152_522_0_0_0_0_0_0.png.3b230a3045587e34ea4fff08966209e1.png

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Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008):

Max Temp: 96.3F (2009)   Min Temp: 2.0F (2008)   Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021)   Wettest Day: 2.34 (11/4/22)   Avg Yearly Precip: 37"   10yr Avg Snow: 8.0"

Snowfall Totals

'08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5" | '21-22: 21.75" | '22-23: 10.0" 

2023-24: 5.0" (1/17: 3", 1/18: 1.5", 0.5" 2/26, Flakes: 1/11, 1/16)

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We have been have major fluctuations with our power. In the past hour our power has gone off and on 10 times. I was outside and a big chunk of ice fell off the fir tree. My sister took the picture. This is what we have been dealing with all day today. If you like, you can pin this so everyone can see it 🌧🥶

Resized_20240118_181845_1705631148412.jpeg

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30.1 in SE PDX (Mt Tabor).  Winds picking up and gusting.  Trees are more iced up than they were yesterday and power's flickering.  Couple branches already cracked off the tree in back, one smacked the patio cover pretty good.  Dog went downstairs, like F this I'm out.  

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Cliff Mass thinks that warm raindrops hitting the ground can warm up the air around it and warm the current temperature. Do I have that right? So In Portland when we have ice storms such as in 2004 for instance. when my thermometer was stuck on 17 degrees for five days.I was just seeing things. I think he needs to spend some time in and near the gorge when we have an ice storm.  It always takes an extra two or three days to come out of a ice storm, first Portland, warms, then the mouth of the gorge and finally in the gorge. It's a slow process.

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6 minutes ago, Doinko said:

Another thin layer of ice on most surfaces, this snow is definitely not melting fully soon. Lot of snow/slush on roads and sidewalks are pretty icy in places.

Yeah 32F here and moderate rain. I can see the drops of water on the trees have re-frozen. Both the cold and snowcover have had impressive longevity with this event. 

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It was a freezing rain ice storm in places. Jesus h christ what it wrong with that assshole. Maybe a few spots around the area didn't freeze but 90% did. What does this look like Cliff Mass you coward, I know your looking here.

20240116_231558.jpg

20240116_231632.jpg

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We come from the land of the ice and snow.

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Nothing like 34 degree rain all day. This is a weenie post, but I thought this location would be better for snow when I moved here. Seems like we are too far south to capitalize on CZ’s, too far east that our precip gets shredded by east winds, and too low in elevation to capitalize on marginal situations like North Bend. It is what it is and I feel @snow_wizard’s pain.

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6 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Wow seatac is 36 dewpoint 28 with rain. I have never seen that last without changing to snow.  This was very close to being a widespread huge snow event

Farther than it appears at the surface though.

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-t925-5622400.png

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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30 minutes ago, Skagit Weather said:

Here's a higher resolution version: Seasonal Snowfall

snowfall_season_d.2024011812.0_600_600._13369_557._12503_1423_dem.shading_im.m.0.0.0.0.0.0.0.png.7cbf31d82e97fe19bc119d80add16c13.png

And specifically for the Puget Sound

snowfall_season_d.2024011812.0_600_600._13393_694._12970_1117_dem.shading_im.m.0.0.0.0.0.0.0.png.800cf94f0b4de683b9cb3fa3994c955b.png

legend_snowfall_season_d_dem_152_522_0_0_0_0_0_0.png.3b230a3045587e34ea4fff08966209e1.png

It cuts Leavenworth in half pretty much.  The 36-48 and the 48-72 line runs right through town.

Actually not a bad map.  The accumulated snowfall here this winter is approximately 55-60 inches so far.  

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11 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Farther than it appears at the surface though.

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-t925-5622400.png

My temp is back down to 32.8 from 35 about 1 hr ago, I think when the precip gets lighter the airmass cools from evaporative cooling. Bizarre.  It could switch back to snow here, I can see flakes.

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We come from the land of the ice and snow.

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Solidly in freezing rain territory here (or is it rain that freezes?), we have not gotten above 30 degrees, but it switched completely over to rain around 2:45 or so.  Thankfully, the rain has been extremely light, so not too much ice accumulation, but the trees are starting to sag a bit. 

Took the dog for a walk in crunchy snow, and when we got back, knocked the snow/ice off the windshield of both cars.  Had good traction for the most part, but while I was looking where I was going to step, there was all this commotion with the dog and I looked over to see what her issue was as she was picking herself up off the ground.  Didn't 2+2=4 the situation, and proceeded to step where she was, and the next thing I knew I was staring at the sky.  I guess a bunch of water came off the car and created a nice sheet of ice under the snow layer.

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26 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

My temp is back down to 32.8 from 35 about 1 hr ago, I think when the precip gets lighter the airmass cools from evaporative cooling. Bizarre.  It could switch back to snow here, I can see flakes.

It is pretty crazy.   Our power came back on for an hour late this afternoon and on our front door cam I saw a gust of wind that blew snow off the roof in swirls.   That doesn't seem like something that would happen with the current 925mb temps.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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6 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

It is pretty crazy.   Our power came back on for an hour late this afternoon and on our front door cam I saw a gust of wind that blew snow off the roof in swirls.   That doesn't seem like something that would happen with the the current 925mb temps.

Are you not home?

We come from the land of the ice and snow.

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2 hours ago, FroYoBro said:

The temperature reading at pdx must be wrong. Still at 36 even though much of the Portland metro area is back down to 31-33 degrees. They are also reporting freezing rain which is tough to do at 36 degrees. 

I do wonder about that station sometimes. They often tend to be at least 1-3 warmer than stations in their immediate surroundings.

Hit a high of 36 here today, in the morning. Has been gradually dropping as the day has gone on, and back down to 32 now with a light glaze accumulating on everything again.

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Summer ☀️ grows while Winter ❄️  goes

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1 minute ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Are you not home?

Nah... needed to work and couldn't count on power or internet at home so me and daughter went to hotel in Bellevue.    My wife is in MN this week taking care of her dad... she traded an ice storm for even colder temps! 

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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