December 2020 Observations and Discussion

[Omegaraptor]

Looks like one of the two stations in Rapid City, SD got to 70ºF today. +30 departure.

[Madtown]

1 hour ago, FAR_Weather said:

Back to zero flakes for me on extended GFS.

Just unreal to not have anything...even lake effect over this way for close to 3 weeks

[Niko]

Not as cold tanite w temps even at this hour holding in the 30s. Skies are overcast.

[Grizzcoat]

That last 70 days of December-- First 8 of 2020, 31 in 2019 and 31 in 2018 have seen only 20 days below normal here at DSM.  Those 70 days have added up snowfall of a whopping 4.0". December has forgot how to be cold and snowy for many reading this.

[Madtown]

20 minutes ago, Grizzcoat said:

That last 70 days of December-- First 8 of 2020, 31 in 2019 and 31 in 2018 have seen only 20 days below normal here at DSM.  Those 70 days have added up snowfall of a whopping 4.0". December has forgot how to be cold and snowy for many reading this.

is there any hope goin forward

[OKwx2k4]

3 hours ago, Grizzcoat said:

That last 70 days of December-- First 8 of 2020, 31 in 2019 and 31 in 2018 have seen only 20 days below normal here at DSM.  Those 70 days have added up snowfall of a whopping 4.0". December has forgot how to be cold and snowy for many reading this.

I know. This is really the most remarkable stretch of warm Decembers that I can remember. 6 years running here...

[Tom]

Since writing my post yesterday with regards to the status of the Strat, I'm seeing notable shifts in the NE PAC pattern just beyond the Winter Solstice period that line up with where the warm pool is growing.  This is precisely what I had envisioned the models to "correct".  Instead of a dominant trough near the W NAMER coast, I was looking for more ridging to develop.  Low and Behold, the NE PAC ridge seems to be showing signs of returning.  It's not just the EPS that is showing this, both the GEFS/GEPS are indicating the same thing.  Not to mention, can you say hello -AO???  My goodness, we haven't seen this type of blocking over the pole in what seems like ages...coincide the long standing -NAO.  Something has got to give.  You can't just block up the atmosphere and deliver the goods down below.  Winter is coming and it's going to Snow.  While it can do so in marginal set ups like this weekends storm system, as we progress through this transition period, by the time we get into astronomical Winter things are going to fire up Bigly IMHO.

Check out the N Hemisphere 500mb maps below...

 

 

 

In terms of storm systems, there is a wave train on the agenda and an interesting system is setting up for the middle of next week.  Marginal cold is again going to be the issue but the general theme of blocking "over the top" causing a storm track right through our Sub is indeed going to manifest into a wintry period for those lucky enough to score some snow.  Judging by the 10mb animation below, there will be a very slight SER developing Christmas week characterized by the small warm pool developing over FL around Dec 5th/6th.  Fast forward 2-3 weeks...you can see where this is heading...

I see you NE PAC ridge....these developments are massive over the N PAC...

 

I see you NE PAC ridge...trends are now becoming our friends...saddle up folks, we may be seeing a Festive Miracle in the works...

[Minny_Weather]

10 hours ago, jaster220 said:

Euro tho??

Mood flakes.

[Niko]

Now, this is something you don't see in your forecast quite often.......

"A Geomagnetic Storm Watch"

It will get close enough to lower MI, where residents in the Metro Detroit Area have a possibility to see the Aurora Borealis later tanite or tomorrow evening. Hopefully my skies are clear and this happens while is dark and not daylight. If I get lucky enough to see (Northern Lights) in my area, I will capture it on vid.

[Niko]

Attm, its cloudy and 36F. Hopefully the sun breaks out later today. Highs expected to top off in the lower 40s. That is AN by 5 degrees or so.

 

[Niko]

As for the weekend storm, the main piece is still in the Pacific and will not be onshore till perhaps Thurs at the latest, so nothing set in stone as of today. As I have said, by weeks end (tomorrow at the earliest) is when models should be getting some idea of what/who/when/where will occur. Stay tuned. In the meantime, have fun model hugging.

 

 

[Clinton]

12z UKIE with more snow moving into W. Kansas and Nebraska.  Has a closed low over the western panhandle of Texas.  There may be some hope down my way if not for me maybe @OKwx2k4 if it's cold enough.

[Stacsh]

Can't believe it's 12/9 and I have received .4" of total snowfall.    Almost a month behind average FIRST 1" snowfall for the area.  With rain coming (maybe mix/1" of slop at the end) and nothing coming in the next week after that we are looking at an early start/chance for record LOW snowfall.  

[westMJim]

The sun has now been out for a few hours and the temperature is now up to 47 here. The last official reading at GRR was 43. There only has been a trace of snow fall at Grand Rapids so far this December and for the winters season so far only 0.4" of a inch has fallen Grand Rapids is now over a foot below average for this date.

[whatitdo]

6 minutes ago, Stacsh said:

Can't believe it's 12/9 and I have received .4" of total snowfall.    Almost a month behind average FIRST 1" snowfall for the area.  With rain coming (maybe mix/1" of slop at the end) and nothing coming in the next week after that we are looking at an early start/chance for record LOW snowfall.  

Until people start getting serious about global warming and climate change, we should get used to this.

https://twitter.com/ajplus/status/1335964206743646209?s=20 

[westMJim]

10 minutes ago, Stacsh said:

Can't believe it's 12/9 and I have received .4" of total snowfall.    Almost a month behind average FIRST 1" snowfall for the area.  With rain coming (maybe mix/1" of slop at the end) and nothing coming in the next week after that we are looking at an early start/chance for record LOW snowfall.  

You would have to go back to 1999/00 to find a start to winter where it has gone deeper into the winter season without have at lest one inch of snow fall at Grand Rapids.

[Minny_Weather]

7 minutes ago, whatitdo said:

Until people start getting serious about global warming and climate change, we should get used to this.

https://twitter.com/ajplus/status/1335964206743646209?s=20 

Yeah, cuz THAT'S how climate change works.

[Niko]

Snowing now in the NYC area as a disturbance moves on it. Temp there is at 35F. Nice!

[Niko]

@Clinton

What is your latest snowfall date ever and your earliest.

[Clinton]

8 minutes ago, Niko said:

@Clinton

What is your latest snowfall date ever and your earliest.

I know my earliest is Oct 6th, I think it was in '93.  Not sure on the latest.

[Minny_Weather]

I'm in KC. It's 60°F here currently and I saw a bee. 

[Clinton]

Just now, FAR_Weather said:

I'm in KC. It's 60°F here currently and I saw a bee. 

D**n your down here and didn't buy me lunch lol.  Enjoy the heat we may get to a record high of 68.

[Minny_Weather]

2 minutes ago, Clinton said:

D**n your down here and didn't buy me lunch lol.  Enjoy the heat we may get to a record high of 68.

Yeah I'm uncomfortable in a hoodie! I'm just here to sell a car and I'm flying back home tonight.

Did manage to get me a burnt ends sandwich, though. Yum.

[Clinton]

5 minutes ago, FAR_Weather said:

Yeah I'm uncomfortable in a hoodie! I'm just here to sell a car and I'm flying back home tonight.

Did manage to get me a burnt ends sandwich, though. Yum.

Joe's bbq?

[Niko]

Looks like cloudy skies will dominate my area. The inversion is massive along w a westerly flow off LM, so I dought clouds break.

[Minny_Weather]

GFS gives me an overnight dusting next week!!!!!

[Minny_Weather]

22 minutes ago, Clinton said:

Joe's bbq?

Jack Stack at the Country Club Plaza.

[OmahaSnowFan]

62.2 so far today. I believe the record is 64.

[OmahaSnowFan]

Lol, where's the cold?

[St Paul Storm]

52F and clear skies. I love cold and snow, but this is awesome for Dec 9. There are people golfing on area courses today. Normal high is 29F. 

[Clinton]

We have tied a record high so far.

Update: We have officially tied the record high for today's date at 68 degrees, which happens to be a 123 year old record! https://twitter.com/NWSKansasCity/status/1336750339425325056

25m

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[whatitdo]

1 hour ago, FAR_Weather said:

Yeah, cuz THAT'S how climate change works.

Not sure what you mean by sarcastically saying that's how it works, but it's pretty supported that our winters are shrinking, which is the emphasis of what I was referring to regardless of the implicit exaggeration in my post

 

 

[Madtown]

https://www.producer.com/markets/north-american-farmers-warned-to-prepare-for-long-dry-spell/

 

interesting 

[Stacsh]

36 minutes ago, whatitdo said:

Not sure what you mean by sarcastically saying that's how it works, but it's pretty supported that our winters are shrinking, which is the emphasis of what I was referring to regardless of the implicit exaggeration in my post

 

 

yeah, early starts to winter are hard to find, but they seem to last longer.  Maybe it's because the oceans and Arctic are warmer and the season/climate has shifted MET winter to match ACT winter.  

[Grizzcoat]

59F for high in DSM. Record is 62F set in 1946- but a "weak" record with 69F being reported in 1946 on the 8th and 66F in 1890 for the 10th.

[CentralNebWeather]

Drought rages on. These are astounding numbers from one year to the next. 

[Niko]

Currently at 40F under cloudy skies.

- My area will not experience 50s and 60s like some of you on here, but definitely 40s, which is a good 5-10 degrees AN.

[Niko]

Next week features dry weather and seasonably cold and by weeks end, a milder airflow arrives w readings climbing back up to near 40F, if not slightly higher, but not by much. There could be a chance for showers as well.

[Niko]

MI peeps...don't forget to check out the "Northern Lights" tanite....that is, weather permitted. You will have another final shot at tomorrow nite, but it will be a little lower than tanites view. In my area, I should have an unobstructed view of the sky by 10pm or so.

[Niko]

As far as the weekend storm goes, rain/snow line will be darn close here in SEMI, in terms from getting a lot of hvy wet snow versus hvy rain changing to snow w no accumulations or maybe minor at best. I'll tell ya this, any last min shift south and that will change the whole entire forecast drastically. Stay tuned. Still waiting for that piece of energy to move on in from the NW Pacific, which will be sometime tomorrow.