Dave Posted January 6, 2021 Report Share Posted January 6, 2021 2 minutes ago, AlTahoe said: I know you guys have said that Jan has disappeared as a winter month in the last decade. Look at what it has done in Tahoe. How does this even happen? It normally is our snowiest month with a 44" average. 2011 - 7" 2012 - 17" 2013 - 4.5" 2014 - 4" 2015 - 0" (first snowless Jan ever!) 2016 - 32.5" 2017 - 136.5" 2018 - 17" 2019 - 44.5" 2020 - 18" 2020 - (most likely another 0") I will move to Culver if Tahoe has 0" this January. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted January 6, 2021 Report Share Posted January 6, 2021 4 minutes ago, dolt said: Can't wait until I can move to Florida where they see real winters, unlike this bush league monotony over here. Don’t let frozen iguanas drop on you! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 6, 2021 Report Share Posted January 6, 2021 I blame Trump. 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dave Posted January 6, 2021 Report Share Posted January 6, 2021 1 minute ago, Deweydog said: I blame Trump. Our cold winter has been fraudulently stolen from us. I suppose we should storm the local NWS offices and rummage through their desks. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlTahoe Posted January 6, 2021 Report Share Posted January 6, 2021 8 minutes ago, dolt said: I will move to Culver if Tahoe has 0" this January. Hopefully we squeeze something in at the very end of the month but models don't show anything for us so far. We were supposed to be getting 60" this week according to the GFS, CMC, and Euro from last week Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dave Posted January 6, 2021 Report Share Posted January 6, 2021 1 minute ago, AlTahoe said: Hopefully we squeeze something in at the very end of the month but models don't show anything for us so far. We were supposed to be getting 60" this week according to the GFS, CMC, and Euro from last week Ignore the models past 7 days. They don't know jack with the SSW effects just starting to emerge. Lots of January left. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted January 6, 2021 Report Share Posted January 6, 2021 3 minutes ago, dolt said: Ignore the models past 7 days. They don't know jack with the SSW effects just starting to emerge. Lots of January left. ftfy Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Blob Posted January 6, 2021 Report Share Posted January 6, 2021 Speaking of February 2018... 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Blob Posted January 6, 2021 Report Share Posted January 6, 2021 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted January 7, 2021 Report Share Posted January 7, 2021 3 hours ago, TT-SEA said: Definitely... he first mentioned it in February 2019. It was cold then Never seen the EPS even half as anomalous 300 hours out as it was then. 1 Quote Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian_in_Leavenworth Posted January 7, 2021 Report Share Posted January 7, 2021 18 GEFS remains consistent with past runs. However reliable it is or isnt, it is probably more reliable at that range than the operational. 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 7, 2021 Report Share Posted January 7, 2021 13 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said: Never seen the EPS even half as anomalous 300 hours out as it was then. Looks good! Things are starting to come together!!! Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted January 7, 2021 Report Share Posted January 7, 2021 5 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said: 18 GEFS remains consistent with past runs. However reliable it is or isnt, it is probably more reliable at that range than the operational. That's a strong signal for offshore ridging on an ensemble mean. 3 Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted January 7, 2021 Report Share Posted January 7, 2021 1 hour ago, AlTahoe said: I know you guys have said that Jan has disappeared as a winter month in the last decade. Look at what it has done in Tahoe. How does this even happen? It normally is our snowiest month with a 44" average. 2011 - 7" 2012 - 17" 2013 - 4.5" 2014 - 4" 2015 - 0" (first snowless Jan ever!) 2016 - 32.5" 2017 - 136.5" 2018 - 17" 2019 - 44.5" 2020 - 18" 2020 - (most likely another 0") Most likely not another 0"....it's 1/6. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 7, 2021 Report Share Posted January 7, 2021 On this date: PDX began its long trip to mid July and an average high of 82 (maybe 83?) degrees. 1 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted January 7, 2021 Report Share Posted January 7, 2021 50F with some light rain. 1 Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 7, 2021 Author Report Share Posted January 7, 2021 Currently 39 degrees. Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted January 7, 2021 Report Share Posted January 7, 2021 Quite a damp evening! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 7, 2021 Report Share Posted January 7, 2021 7 minutes ago, BLI snowman said: Quite a damp evening! Another setup where if the air mass was (in this case drastically) colder we’d be in good shape. 1 1 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SalemDuck Posted January 7, 2021 Report Share Posted January 7, 2021 Last nights GEFS extended control run fumbles around with the ridge for about 10 days before setting up this beauty 3 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterdog Posted January 7, 2021 Report Share Posted January 7, 2021 26 minutes ago, SalemDuck said: Last nights GEFS extended control run fumbles around with the ridge for about 10 days before setting up this beauty I'm sure stoked. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted January 7, 2021 Report Share Posted January 7, 2021 It did start lightly snowing just now. Enough to glaze everything, but not really significant. 1 Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 16 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, Severe storms: 2 ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian_in_Leavenworth Posted January 7, 2021 Report Share Posted January 7, 2021 44 minutes ago, SalemDuck said: Last nights GEFS extended control run fumbles around with the ridge for about 10 days before setting up this beauty GEFS mean continues the same basic pattern for at least two weeks beyond day 16. Through Feb. 7th for now. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SalemDuck Posted January 7, 2021 Report Share Posted January 7, 2021 1 minute ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said: GEFS mean continues the same basic pattern for at least two weeks beyond day 16. Through Feb. 7th for now. If one is to believe the long range models (euro weeklies and GEFS extended).Weeks 3-5 have constant ridging in the gulf and at times into Alaska. Depending where the ridging sets up it could be awesome or could be a dud. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SalemDuck Posted January 7, 2021 Report Share Posted January 7, 2021 53 minutes ago, SalemDuck said: Last nights GEFS extended control run fumbles around with the ridge for about 10 days before setting up this beauty Crazy control run! This is 1 week later. 1 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted January 7, 2021 Report Share Posted January 7, 2021 2 minutes ago, SalemDuck said: Crazy control run! This is 1 week later. Geez, look at all that cold air just to the north that can be tapped into. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheNewCulverJosh Posted January 7, 2021 Report Share Posted January 7, 2021 2 minutes ago, Cloud said: Geez, look at all that cold air just to the north that can be tapped into. And 50's and 60's in the midwest, most likely. Anchorage perhaps colder than Fairbanks. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 7, 2021 Report Share Posted January 7, 2021 Wow that trough digs into Southern California. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterdog Posted January 7, 2021 Report Share Posted January 7, 2021 9 minutes ago, Cloud said: Geez, look at all that cold air just to the north that can be tapped into. And all only 792 hours away! ️ 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheNewCulverJosh Posted January 7, 2021 Report Share Posted January 7, 2021 3 minutes ago, Acer said: And all only 792 hours away! ️ You sound like me now. I was trying to be positive :). 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 7, 2021 Report Share Posted January 7, 2021 Extended GFS ensemble looks pretty good through the end of the run. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheNewCulverJosh Posted January 7, 2021 Report Share Posted January 7, 2021 4 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: Extended GFS ensemble looks pretty good through the end of the run. Any real data showing performance on the GFS ensembles, say after day 12? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian_in_Leavenworth Posted January 7, 2021 Report Share Posted January 7, 2021 2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: Extended GFS ensemble looks pretty good through the end of the run. They do. Here is the last 22 days. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 7, 2021 Report Share Posted January 7, 2021 Insane potential for the first week of February on there. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 7, 2021 Report Share Posted January 7, 2021 5 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said: Speaking of the GEFS extended, the latest run was a significant improvement over the previous one and at only 288 hours. Look at the difference around the Aleutians. That is really nice to see. It's coming. It will be a question of exactly how cold do we get? Not if the cold happens. 1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 7, 2021 Report Share Posted January 7, 2021 Yeah! Wednesday night Model Riding! Hosted by: That Bob Grimes guy Sponsored by: Sprite, Planters mixed nuts 00z GFS Day 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 7, 2021 Report Share Posted January 7, 2021 Day 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 7, 2021 Report Share Posted January 7, 2021 Day 3 (Past 4 runs) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 7, 2021 Report Share Posted January 7, 2021 Day 4 (Past 4 runs) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted January 7, 2021 Report Share Posted January 7, 2021 The three model runs I've watched over the last week have all been the top three worst. Going to do something else now every six hours! 1 Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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