snow_wizard Posted January 17, 2021 Report Share Posted January 17, 2021 If this run verifies I see now way we avoid fairly widespread lowland snow. Probably a case of different areas getting it at different times. 2 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 17, 2021 Report Share Posted January 17, 2021 8 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: OMG. This run has an even colder trough after day 10 now. Amazing how fast these model changes are happening. Important to remember that the EPS has been very consistent with just minor tweaks. The rest is just model volatility (Matt's word of the month). Side note... you using 'OMG' might be the single biggest jinx on here. 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted January 17, 2021 Report Share Posted January 17, 2021 I hadn't purchased a sled in many years so I did some research. This sled is pricey but built very good and is extremely fast. I tried it on road to my cabin and I hit 22 mph on my phone and the typical cheap sled would probably do 10 mph. Next time I'm wearing helmet! 2 2 1 Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 17, 2021 Report Share Posted January 17, 2021 The parallel look similar to the operational up to around day 10. It hasn't run any further than that yet. At this point what's being shown is decent. Nothing to write home about, but decent. The way things are changing big stuff is still possible. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted January 17, 2021 Report Share Posted January 17, 2021 10 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: OMG. This run has an even colder trough after day 10 now. Amazing how fast these model changes are happening. Something memorable at the end of January? :0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 17, 2021 Report Share Posted January 17, 2021 3 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said: I hadn't purchased a sled in many years so I did some research. This sled is pricey but built very good and is extremely fast. I tried it on road to my cabin and I hit 22 mph on my phone and the typical cheap sled would probably do 10 mph. Next time I'm wearing helmet! Those have come a long way since I was a kid. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 17, 2021 Author Report Share Posted January 17, 2021 This one is for Matt! 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheNewCulverJosh Posted January 17, 2021 Report Share Posted January 17, 2021 30 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said: One more. Here's the 12z EMCWF A 10 day model that shows maybe 0.7 of snow in PDX at the end of January. OUCH!!!!!! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MWG Posted January 17, 2021 Report Share Posted January 17, 2021 22 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said: This one better? This is the 12z GFS. 18z is still running oh wow! Would be something if this happens! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 17, 2021 Report Share Posted January 17, 2021 2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: The parallel look similar to the operational up to around day. It hasn't run any further than that yet. At this point what's being shown is decent. Nothing to write home about, but decent. The way things are changing big stuff is still possible. Potential is there... but the EPS showing continued retrogression after day 10 has me thinking there might need to be another reset in early February. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 17, 2021 Report Share Posted January 17, 2021 6 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: Important to remember that the EPS has been very consistent with just minor tweaks. The rest is just model volatility (Matt's word of the month). Side note... you using 'OMG' might be the single biggest jinx on here. The EPS has trended slowly better with every run with the 6 to 10 day period. Beyond that I think big changes could still be possible with little warning. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 17, 2021 Report Share Posted January 17, 2021 1 minute ago, TT-SEA said: Potential is there... but the EPS showing continued retrogression after day 10 has me thinking there will need to be another reset in early February. A phase 7 MJO could do it. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 17, 2021 Report Share Posted January 17, 2021 Just now, snow_wizard said: The EPS has trended slowly better with every run with the 6 to 10 day period. Beyond that I think big changes could still be possible with little warning. A little better in the 6-10 day period but its just a minor adjustments. Its been pretty consistent for many days. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 17, 2021 Report Share Posted January 17, 2021 2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: A phase 7 MJO could do it. February seems like the easiest month lately in our current climate regime. Does not seem to take much to get cold and snow in that month! Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 17, 2021 Report Share Posted January 17, 2021 I really like how weak the surface pressure gradients are shown to be during the reign of the cold trough. It ranges from weak offshore flow to very weak onshore. Weak gradients are usually more favorable for snow in this area at least. Cold air is able to stay put with no down sloping from too much east wind or cold air getting scoured out from too much onshore flow. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prairiedog Posted January 17, 2021 Report Share Posted January 17, 2021 6 minutes ago, TheNewCulverJosh said: A 10 day model that shows maybe 0.7 of snow in PDX at the end of January. OUCH!!!!!! In dog years, that's got to be close to a foot where I live near the Clackamas River. I'll take .7' the way things have gone. My dogs are happy! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OysterPrintout Posted January 17, 2021 Report Share Posted January 17, 2021 Just a slight bit more cold air to the north than the 12z 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheNewCulverJosh Posted January 17, 2021 Report Share Posted January 17, 2021 3 minutes ago, Prairiedog said: In dog years, that's got to be close to a foot where I live near the Clackamas River. I'll take .7' the way things have gone. My dogs are happy! Where are you?? Out there towards Eagle Crest? Redland? Those areas actually can overperform in certain situations. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hyperbolic Trendz Posted January 17, 2021 Report Share Posted January 17, 2021 2 minutes ago, TheNewCulverJosh said: Where are you?? Out there towards Eagle Crest? Redland? Those areas actually can overperform in certain situations. I think he’s mentioned being out in the Fisher’s Mill/ Springwater area before. Could be wrong. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheNewCulverJosh Posted January 17, 2021 Report Share Posted January 17, 2021 3 minutes ago, Runtmc said: I think he’s mentioned being out in the Fisher’s Mill/ Springwater area before. Could be wrong. Makes sense, most of that area is between 300-600'. They can get warm-nosed badly though. I bet he watches the wind direction as badly as I do. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prairiedog Posted January 17, 2021 Report Share Posted January 17, 2021 3 minutes ago, TheNewCulverJosh said: Where are you?? Out there towards Eagle Crest? Redland? Those areas actually can overperform in certain situations. I'm across the Clackamas from Eagle Creek on Clear Creek at 310ft. We get warm nosed a lot here. When Portland got buried in '19 I got barely 4". Cold rain till 4am in the am before it changed over. By then much of the metro was buried. Happens a lot when warmer air moves up along the Cascade foothills. 8 miles from here towards Sunnyside road same elevation it's like another climate zone esp in an east wind event. It has to be a good solid overriding event for me to get good snow. I'm the first to transition out because of mid level warming. Estacada only gets a little more in town at about 450ft elevation. Up on Springwater Rd on the south eastern end where it climes to about 1K is there a substantial more amount of snow. More east wind exposure there too than I get. I'm down in a little valley along Clear Creek and it's a bit protected from east winds unless its strong gap winds. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kolk1604 Posted January 17, 2021 Report Share Posted January 17, 2021 Think I'll put all my money on the GFS. I've always loved underdogs 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jakeinthevalley Posted January 17, 2021 Report Share Posted January 17, 2021 29 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said: I hadn't purchased a sled in many years so I did some research. This sled is pricey but built very good and is extremely fast. I tried it on road to my cabin and I hit 22 mph on my phone and the typical cheap sled would probably do 10 mph. Next time I'm wearing helmet! Spray on some of Clark Griswold's kitchen lubricant and you'll really be travelling!! 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 17, 2021 Report Share Posted January 17, 2021 1 minute ago, AbbyJr said: Phil what's going on? Even the ensembles are showing a warming trend. We need your insight. This run is actually colder in the believable range. No sense of paying much attention to beyond day 10 right now. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheNewCulverJosh Posted January 17, 2021 Report Share Posted January 17, 2021 6 minutes ago, Prairiedog said: I'm across the Clackamas from Eagle Creek on Clear Creek at 310ft. We get warm nosed a lot here. When Portland got buried in '19 I got barely 4". Cold rain till 4am in the am before it changed over. By then much of the metro was buried. Happens a lot when warmer air moves up along the Cascade foothills. 8 miles from here towards Sunnyside road same elevation it's like another climate zone esp in an east wind event. It has to be a good solid overriding event for me to get good snow. I'm the first to transition out because of mid level warming. Estacada only gets a little more in town at about 450ft elevation. Up on Springwater Rd on the south eastern end where it climes to about 1K is there a substantial more amount of snow. More east wind exposure there too than I get. I'm down in a little valley along Clear Creek and it's a bit protected from east winds unless its strong gap winds. Yessir. My dad lives at 800' elevation off of Beavercreek rd., between Clarkes and the Meadowbrook store. Mulino address. Portland down to Wilsonville can be getting buried and he is getting rain/snow mix. And let us not even talk about Molalla. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 17, 2021 Report Share Posted January 17, 2021 Looks like our first round of northerly flow has kicked in here. Puffy clouds moving at a nice clip from the north. Looks like it's going to clear out. Maybe some frost tonight! 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted January 17, 2021 Report Share Posted January 17, 2021 49/43 spread so far today...0.06” this morning to hit 8.39” on the month. Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prairiedog Posted January 17, 2021 Report Share Posted January 17, 2021 1 minute ago, TheNewCulverJosh said: Yessir. My dad lives at 800' elevation off of Beavercreek rd., between Clarkes and the Meadowbrook store. Mulino address. Portland down to Wilsonville can be getting buried and he is getting rain/snow mix. And let us not even talk about Molalla. One of my steelhead/salmon fishing buddies lives up near Clarks at 1,200ft. He surprisingly doesn't get that much more snow than I do. A little but not significantly more. I'm about a mile upstream from Fishers Mill on Clear Creek. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted January 17, 2021 Report Share Posted January 17, 2021 2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: Looks like our first round of northerly flow has kicked in here. Puffy clouds moving at a nice clip from the north. Looks like it's going to clear out. Maybe some frost tonight! We had about 15 freezes here at this point last winter...just 6 so far at my house and it’s about to be late January. Looks like colder times are ahead so we should bump those numbers up. Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubus Leucodermis Posted January 17, 2021 Report Share Posted January 17, 2021 4 hours ago, Deweydog said: After all the noise and fury, perhaps we are headed to a fairly traditional late winter nina look. Backloaded again. Oh well, beats no-loaded. 1 Quote It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 17, 2021 Report Share Posted January 17, 2021 No doubt the trough in the 7 to day 10 period has steadily trended east and colder and now the trough after that has trended east on both the regular GFS and the parallel. Looks like a trend. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 17, 2021 Report Share Posted January 17, 2021 7 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said: Backloaded again. Oh well, beats no-loaded. It’s January 17th of what has been a remarkably warm winter. Forced choice. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kokaneekidz Posted January 17, 2021 Report Share Posted January 17, 2021 NWS SEA is prognosticating a NorthWesterly flow with too much Pacific Ocean influence to amount to a hill of beans for any of us other than Andrew and Tim..... .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...A cool upper low will drop down from the northwest on Thursday--it is not impressive and will probably not have much precip as it mostly misses Western Washington on its way to northern California. A more substantial front and upper trough reaches the area around Sunday and a third system a few days after that. Each front and upper trough has colder air aloft. Looking at GEFS 850mb temps--forecast members are clustered mostly in a range of -4c to -7c, but those temps are merely flirting with wintry weather if there is onshore flow. The upper ridge around 145w next Thursday shifts to 160w into the last week of January and we see a series of colder upper troughs with a lot of over-water trajectory. That looks like a good recipe for a low snow level and great skiing but not a lot of anguish for the lowlands. 19 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted January 17, 2021 Report Share Posted January 17, 2021 Still nothing showing up today in the believable range, but it is a notch closer. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fubario Posted January 17, 2021 Report Share Posted January 17, 2021 3 hours ago, MossMan said: "..a TRUSTED human weather source.." heh 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 17, 2021 Author Report Share Posted January 17, 2021 10 minutes ago, kokaneekidz said: NWS SEA is prognosticating a NorthWesterly flow with too much Pacific Ocean influence to amount to a hill of beans for any of us other than Andrew and Tim..... .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...A cool upper low will drop down from the northwest on Thursday--it is not impressive and will probably not have much precip as it mostly misses Western Washington on its way to northern California. A more substantial front and upper trough reaches the area around Sunday and a third system a few days after that. Each front and upper trough has colder air aloft. Looking at GEFS 850mb temps--forecast members are clustered mostly in a range of -4c to -7c, but those temps are merely flirting with wintry weather if there is onshore flow. The upper ridge around 145w next Thursday shifts to 160w into the last week of January and we see a series of colder upper troughs with a lot of over-water trajectory. That looks like a good recipe for a low snow level and great skiing but not a lot of anguish for the lowlands. 19 Perfect! We don’t want NWS Seattle onboard too soon. 3 2 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 17, 2021 Report Share Posted January 17, 2021 1 hour ago, snow_wizard said: It's cyclical at least to some extent. The period of time we are living in is way too short to draw any kind of conclusions. Most people aren't even aware of drastically the climate has shifted in the recent past (50,000 years). What we've seen in the last 100 years isn't even a blip in the big picture. A bigger problem for record keeping is contamination by UHI/land use changes. Most of the USHCN data records are poisoned beyond repair, and there seems to be little interest developing a surface station based data record away from urban/suburban locations. Which is flummoxing given this so called “climate emergency” politicians have been whining about. 1 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MWG Posted January 17, 2021 Report Share Posted January 17, 2021 From Medford NWS Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlTahoe Posted January 18, 2021 Report Share Posted January 18, 2021 Went mt biking today up to 7200'. The only other year we could mt bike in Jan was 2015. #worstwinterever. 5 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 18, 2021 Report Share Posted January 18, 2021 North wind kicking in. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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