TT-SEA Posted January 27, 2021 Report Share Posted January 27, 2021 1 minute ago, Acer said: When I say winter is "cancelled" or "over" or "the ship has sailed", that means according to my interpretation of the model consensus it looks like there is nothing to really hang our hats on. In late January, when the models extend their coverage out to mid-February and show nothing indicating a real chance for snow or cold, the weenie in me thinks things are looking bad and I might half heartedly claim this winter is over out of exasperation. Sure, anything can happen but odds are against anything very noteworthy this late in the game. It's like a 180 from those that get unrealistically excited over some positive indicators that are not showing up in the models. We are all looking for the same thing and I never quit looking at the models even when I think it really is all over. I would say there are enough signs right now of something happening during the second week of February to be hopeful for cold and snow. 1 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted January 27, 2021 Report Share Posted January 27, 2021 7 hours ago, Jginmartini said: All runways way closed currently....update later this afternoon. Let’s see what magic they work. It helps that the airport is fairly small so they do a good job with it. It’s really coming down again there now and covering the runway/tarmac again — quite fast! Within half an hour everything is covered. Seems less windy today so the snow isn’t whipping around as much so it’s sticking a lot faster. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterdog Posted January 27, 2021 Report Share Posted January 27, 2021 7 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: I would say there are enough signs right now of something happening during the second week of February to be hopeful for cold and snow. Yeah, hopefully we can pull off something good. I ain't over till the fat lady sings anyway. Do we have any members that are fat ladies? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 27, 2021 Author Report Share Posted January 27, 2021 32 minutes ago, jakerepp said: But baseball starts I have a good feeling about those M’s this year!! 1 2 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
umadbro Posted January 27, 2021 Report Share Posted January 27, 2021 1 minute ago, MossMan said: I have a good feeling about those M’s this year!! There's always next year. Quote https://ambientweather.net/dashboard/efcb24c8a999dceddfaba7469ce5bd2f my personal weather station Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 27, 2021 Report Share Posted January 27, 2021 1 minute ago, umadbro said: There's always next year. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=okXhAC78d4Q 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prairiedog Posted January 27, 2021 Report Share Posted January 27, 2021 Just now, MossMan said: I have a good feeling about those M’s this year!! Maybe still a year away. When they bring up Kelenec, JRod, Gilbert, Hancock, and White matures, then we'll see more W's than L's. We'll see if there's the sophmore jinx for Lewis. Dipoto might still add pieces but after these kids come up that's when Dipoto will start adding some trade pieces but yea, I have that good feeling too. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MWG Posted January 28, 2021 Report Share Posted January 28, 2021 Almost 50 degrees today! Still some rain/snow forecast for tonight and tomorrow morning but with downslope effects I doubt we get anything. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterdog Posted January 28, 2021 Report Share Posted January 28, 2021 Justin already posted on this but it's so lovely I had to post the 850 chart. -20 850's over Seattle.. 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 28, 2021 Author Report Share Posted January 28, 2021 7 minutes ago, Acer said: Justin already posted on this but it's so lovely I had to post the 850 chart. -20 850's over Seattle.. Oh how I would love to see that verify! Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prairiedog Posted January 28, 2021 Report Share Posted January 28, 2021 Sends chills down my spine. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
seattleweatherguy Posted January 28, 2021 Report Share Posted January 28, 2021 10 minutes ago, Acer said: Justin already posted on this but it's so lovely I had to post the 850 chart. -20 850's over Seattle.. I would love this, it be close to epic. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterdog Posted January 28, 2021 Report Share Posted January 28, 2021 4 minutes ago, seattleweatherguy said: I would love this, it be close to epic. I just checked and it shows -32 850's over northern eastern Washington. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted January 28, 2021 Report Share Posted January 28, 2021 22 minutes ago, Acer said: Justin already posted on this but it's so lovely I had to post the 850 chart. -20 850's over Seattle.. Winter Unshunned! Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 21 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, 5/4, 5/5, 5/6, 5/7 5/8, Severe storms: 2 ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted January 28, 2021 Report Share Posted January 28, 2021 Winds are loud. The side of the house facing south is rumbling. 1 1 Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 21 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, 5/4, 5/5, 5/6, 5/7 5/8, Severe storms: 2 ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weather_fan Posted January 28, 2021 Report Share Posted January 28, 2021 28 minutes ago, Acer said: Justin already posted on this but it's so lovely I had to post the 850 chart. -20 850's over Seattle.. Only if these can be wrong be less than 35 degrees Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
umadbro Posted January 28, 2021 Report Share Posted January 28, 2021 28 minutes ago, Acer said: Justin already posted on this but it's so lovely I had to post the 850 chart. -20 850's over Seattle.. Is this the FV16 or the regular ol GFS? Quote https://ambientweather.net/dashboard/efcb24c8a999dceddfaba7469ce5bd2f my personal weather station Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted January 28, 2021 Report Share Posted January 28, 2021 18 minutes ago, Acer said: Justin already posted on this but it's so lovely I had to post the 850 chart. -20 850's over Seattle.. The "upgrade" needs a major overhaul. It's really frustrating but hopefully they work out the kinks and biases to help actually make a better GFS in the next year or two. Quote Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 28, 2021 Report Share Posted January 28, 2021 32 minutes ago, Acer said: Justin already posted on this but it's so lovely I had to post the 850 chart. -20 850's over Seattle.. Nice! Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterdog Posted January 28, 2021 Report Share Posted January 28, 2021 5 minutes ago, umadbro said: Is this the FV16 or the regular ol GFS? The FV16 unfortunately. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chewbacca Defense Posted January 28, 2021 Report Share Posted January 28, 2021 4 hours ago, Jginmartini said: Apparently the roads were in ok shape. Looks beautiful and peaceful and it’s all yours Yeah, I decided to go for it and turn around if it started to get dicey. Going up was just fine, alternated between snow and rain until I started the final climb up the mountain, then all snow. One bridge on that climb was a little exciting. Coming back was a different story, it snowed the whole time I was there, and intensified alot as I was putting my gear away. I took a drive to the top after I got done. It was 32 when I got up there but 29 when I was leaving. Heather Meadows was closed (not sure why or if that was typical for during the week) but there will still a few people up sledding or back country skiiing. The roads were quite snotty up there, but I managed just fine, especially after I disabled traction control. Snowed all the way off the mountain, then had sunbreaks on the way home. Currently sitting at 39 here at the house. 2 Quote Britton Rd Bellingham Weather Station: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KWABELLI103?cm_ven=localwx_pwsdash Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterdog Posted January 28, 2021 Report Share Posted January 28, 2021 3 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said: The "upgrade" needs a major overhaul. It's really frustrating but hopefully they work out the kinks and biases to help actually make a better GFS in the next year or two. For sure but wasn't there times last year when this version did pretty good? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AbbyJr Posted January 28, 2021 Report Share Posted January 28, 2021 Seriously, whats going on with the GFS Parallel??? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted January 28, 2021 Report Share Posted January 28, 2021 Lots of random variations in the GEFS, but very close to something good. Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted January 28, 2021 Report Share Posted January 28, 2021 Just now, AbbyJr said: Seriously, whats going on with the GFS Parallel??? Not enough terrain influence IMO. Like the GFS from the last decade, but not quite as bad. Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterdog Posted January 28, 2021 Report Share Posted January 28, 2021 10 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said: Not enough terrain influence IMO. Like the GFS from the last decade, but not quite as bad. Yeah, but the best part of this is the block which really isn't a terrain affected feature. If we have a block like that we would get cold, how cold it gets is where the terrain plays it's role I think. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 28, 2021 Author Report Share Posted January 28, 2021 11 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said: The "upgrade" needs a major overhaul. It's really frustrating but hopefully they work out the kinks and biases to help actually make a better GFS in the next year or two. You you saying this is not going to verify... Negitive Nancy. 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 28, 2021 Author Report Share Posted January 28, 2021 5 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said: Not enough terrain influence IMO. Like the GFS from the last decade, but not quite as bad. C’MON!! The MRF was a weather weenie’s damp dream! 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Link Posted January 28, 2021 Report Share Posted January 28, 2021 1 hour ago, Acer said: Yeah, hopefully we can pull off something good. I ain't over till the fat lady sings anyway. Do we have any members that are fat ladies? You mean something like this?You mean this? Fat lady sings - YouTube Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 28, 2021 Report Share Posted January 28, 2021 I'm really getting stoked about the prospects for February now. Another epic parallel GFS run and the the 18z also had a very cold run on the GFS ensemble control. Besides that the EPS was much better also. The idea of a bridge between the PNA block and the NAO block is gaining more support all the time which means a displaced PV is pretty possible. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jakerepp Posted January 28, 2021 Report Share Posted January 28, 2021 1 hour ago, Prairiedog said: Maybe still a year away. When they bring up Kelenec, JRod, Gilbert, Hancock, and White matures, then we'll see more W's than L's. We'll see if there's the sophmore jinx for Lewis. Dipoto might still add pieces but after these kids come up that's when Dipoto will start adding some trade pieces but yea, I have that good feeling too. I’m still not sold on Lewis. Too many strikeouts, although his walk rate last year was encouraging. But he definitely slumped in the second half of the season. Hard to believe he’s only played 76 MLB games, so there’s room to develop still. But there’s a lot to be excited about, for sure. I expect a fun, if not middling season in 2021, but then a real breakout and contending team in 2022 and beyond. Quote Home Weather Station Stats for 2023 High - Satans Bunghole Lowest High - Not sure Low - I don't have the data Sub 40 highs - Not quite Sub-freezing highs - Try again Lows below 25 - You're joking Lows below 20 - No 2023 Snowfall - LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 28, 2021 Report Share Posted January 28, 2021 49 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said: Not enough terrain influence IMO. Like the GFS from the last decade, but not quite as bad. It shows a PV over Alberta at the 500mb level. Terrain has no influence that high up. People get too hung up on that when talking about upper level stuff. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted January 28, 2021 Report Share Posted January 28, 2021 1 minute ago, jakerepp said: I’m still not sold on Lewis. Too many strikeouts, although his walk rate last year was encouraging. But he definitely slumped in the second half of the season. Hard to believe he’s only played 76 MLB games, so there’s room to develop still. But there’s a lot to be excited about, for sure. I expect a fun, if not middling season in 2021, but then a real breakout and contending team in 2022 and beyond. The Mariners are like a artic blast, always a letdown and never happen Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 28, 2021 Author Report Share Posted January 28, 2021 Had a high of 43. Currently 38. .08” of lumpy rain on the day. Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 28, 2021 Report Share Posted January 28, 2021 45 minutes ago, MossMan said: You you saying this is not going to verify... Negitive Nancy. He stating it like he knows the model is bad. We haven't seen if it's going to be right yet. He's a definite GFS hater, but it has actually been pretty good this year. The ECMWF has laid some really rotten eggs as well. As of now we don't know enough about the parallel to make a judgement. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 28, 2021 Report Share Posted January 28, 2021 3 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said: The Mariners are like a artic blast, always a letdown and never happen We just had Feb 2019 less than two years ago. Why are people so negative on here all the time? 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 28, 2021 Author Report Share Posted January 28, 2021 We have had many many Arctic blasts since the M’s were last in the playoffs! 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterdog Posted January 28, 2021 Report Share Posted January 28, 2021 45/36 here today with only .01” of lumpless rain. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 28, 2021 Report Share Posted January 28, 2021 57 minutes ago, AbbyJr said: Seriously, whats going on with the GFS Parallel??? Interestingly there is some support for a displaced PV with tanked NAO and AO combining with a -PNA. Some EPS ensemble members are pretty extreme. Not saying an extreme outcome is likely, but it' possible. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 28, 2021 Report Share Posted January 28, 2021 4 minutes ago, MossMan said: We have had many many Arctic blasts since the M’s were last in the playoffs! Yeah. It's pretty ridiculous to say we never get Arctic air here. February has been pretty good the past decade. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Posted by OysterPrintout,
3 reactions
Go to this post
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.