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January 2021 weather observations for the PNW


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Some pics on the way up to my property.  The ones on the road are 1/4 mile down the road and the gate is the beginning of my 120 acre land.

I SEE FLAKES! WE DID IT!  I would like to thank every single poster and lurker on this board for working so hard this winter. Everyone gave it their all and it ended up with Tigard getting their

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Things are colder even though the off-shore system is in the same place as a result of the high being further south.

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Tim and Andrew will probably get lots of snow last week of January. 

Cold season stats  

Coldest low-25

Coldest high-32

Freezes-14

Monthly rainfall-5.03”

Cold season rainfall-31.85”

Snowfall-15.5”

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1 minute ago, bainbridgekid said:

Worth watching this low. 18z looked very similar.

 

b1d4e39d-85ee-4f4f-b402-d8fd98ade448.gif

Yeah although right now it's coming in at a bad angle. Definitely don't want to see it strengthen till it's gotten further enough south. The negative tilt is just gonna push the system over WA as it stands.

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3 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Looking very close to the 18z.

image.thumb.png.909ba4fa8970d144ff25a0d12a99e942.png

Appears to be a transition event.

 

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Just now, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

I'll probably get more.  But so far on the GFS nobody gets much.

Yeah... I don't see a big snow pattern for my area on any of the models.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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I will be canceling my weathermodels subscription and possibly going to weatherbell although I despise Bastardi. Here’s why:

1. Weather Models UI is terrible. Too many clicks to get to what I need to.

2. Mobile experience is undesirable. Tiny buttons to click between frames.

3. Data output is slow compared to public sites.

I do like the comparator though even though it’s cumbersome to setup.

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4 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

One “consistent” theme at the moment is that these troughs seem to universally hit a -6c barrier.

Good observation. Scanning 850s through Day 11 and that's pretty much what I see.

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This run is close. We have a nice sharp trough but it's a hair too far west and moderates too much. Then we get cold air close by but nothing to drive it south and so it spills over the Rockies. Precipitation chances are there too. 

It was pretty close to the 18z actually. Just some minor differences to make it not as snowy. Still ends up alright in the snow map department for Western WA, but some of this falls with very questionable temperatures.

Anyways, I feel like we have some pieces back on the board but they aren't fitting just right yet. See how that develops over the course of this week.

1611738000-6U5A6STsT2U.png

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Weather station: https://maplevalleywx.com

 

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2 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

This run is close. We have a nice sharp trough but it's a hair too far west and moderates too much. Then we get cold air close by but nothing to drive it south and so it spills over the Rockies. Precipitation chances are there too. 

It was pretty close to the 18z actually. Just some minor differences to make it not as snowy. Still ends up alright in the snow map department for Western WA, but some of this falls with very questionable temperatures.

Anyways, I feel like we have some pieces back on the board but they aren't fitting just right yet. See how that develops over the course of this week.

1611738000-6U5A6STsT2U.png

This snow map seems to be so much higher than the other one posted through 240 hours.   These GFS snow maps are pretty comical.   

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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This run shows quite a bit of snow up here next week. Still a long ways off though. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 9.8"                        2020-21: 40.47"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

This snow map seems to be so much higher than the other one posted through 240 hours.   These GFS snow maps are pretty comical.   

Seriously? If this pattern plays out you are going to see snow and perhaps a significant amount. You should be overjoyed.

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5 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

This run is close. We have a nice sharp trough but it's a hair too far west and moderates too much. Then we get cold air close by but nothing to drive it south and so it spills over the Rockies. Precipitation chances are there too. 

It was pretty close to the 18z actually. Just some minor differences to make it not as snowy. Still ends up alright in the snow map department for Western WA, but some of this falls with very questionable temperatures.

Anyways, I feel like we have some pieces back on the board but they aren't fitting just right yet. See how that develops over the course of this week.

1611738000-6U5A6STsT2U.png

I’m still in the purple! 

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2 minutes ago, Timmy said:

I’m back on the Canadian train

B821C814-8627-4FF6-B4A5-7617242451C6.png

Solid overrunning event next Sunday on the GEM. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 9.8"                        2020-21: 40.47"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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3 minutes ago, Timmy said:

I’m back on the Canadian train

B821C814-8627-4FF6-B4A5-7617242451C6.png

Yeah the GEM is MUCH better with the 2nd shortwave sliding down BC coast connected far better to the arctic air source in BC/AB. Day 6.5
500h_anom.na.png
 
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15 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

Seriously? If this pattern plays out you are going to see snow and perhaps a significant amount. You should be overjoyed.

Yeah... the GFS snow maps are inconsistent.    The WB version always seems to look overstated.    Compare it to the high resolution GFS snowfall map that was posted from Pivotal.

And I am not sold on getting lots of snow here yet.   The ECMWF showed a couple inches and then the pattern starts warming after day 10 per the EPS.   The pattern just does not look like a big snow maker here to me.    Could change.   

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Here is what I mean Rob... this is for the same period and the Pivotal map looks more realistic to me.

 

gfs-deterministic-washington-total_snow_kuchera-1792000.png

snodpc_acc.us_nw.png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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