bud2380 Posted January 24, 2021 Report Share Posted January 24, 2021 GFS also lower qpf in eastern Iowa. Although still has a foot for Iowa city. I guess I have to accept that we won’t be in the 12-18” band over here. 6-11” is the official NWS forecast and is probably pretty good. Although it’s a pretty wide range. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 24, 2021 Author Report Share Posted January 24, 2021 NWS... 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 24, 2021 Report Share Posted January 24, 2021 Gfs v16 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 24, 2021 Report Share Posted January 24, 2021 GFS lingers accumulating snow in eastern Iowa through Tuesday mid morning. Adds a couple more inches. Solid 13.5” for Iowa city. I could live with that. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted January 24, 2021 Report Share Posted January 24, 2021 3 minutes ago, Tom said: NWS... You wanna post this for our area too Tom when you get a chance? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 24, 2021 Report Share Posted January 24, 2021 I thought there was a dome in the LNK area Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 24, 2021 Author Report Share Posted January 24, 2021 19 minutes ago, indianajohn said: @Tom Finally is right!! Last few years everything has been either north or south of me. What are the chances this overproduces? 50/50 I'd say...if you can get underneath a heavy band or two it can stack up. The heaviest totals with this system are going to be very close to our area. I don't think you'll benefit from the lake as much as on our side, but maybe later in the week when the next storm tracks to our south the lake can produce even more lake effect. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pjjanthony Posted January 24, 2021 Report Share Posted January 24, 2021 It looks like all of the models are coming into an agreement with the bullseye being Omaha Nebraska. Even the GFS, which had been the outlier, is in agreement. It will be fun to follow. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 24, 2021 Report Share Posted January 24, 2021 So far, my area is in store for a 3-6 inch event, which I will gladly approve. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 24, 2021 Report Share Posted January 24, 2021 These little wobbles make a huge difference on the north edge. Dang high pressure 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 24, 2021 Report Share Posted January 24, 2021 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 24, 2021 Report Share Posted January 24, 2021 Cmc 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BMT Posted January 24, 2021 Report Share Posted January 24, 2021 Beautiful snow falling here at the moment. Had 2.5” here this morning. Still had a base of about 3” as well. I’m primed for a 6”+ snow, fingers crossed. It’s a shame the wind isn’t looking as strong. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 24, 2021 Author Report Share Posted January 24, 2021 4 minutes ago, gabel23 said: You wanna post this for our area too Tom when you get a chance? Boom... 2 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted January 24, 2021 Report Share Posted January 24, 2021 3 minutes ago, Tom said: Boom... Thanks Tom!!! Wow the snow shield for the state has really expanded! Bring on a back loaded winter baby! PS. Smoking some ribs and poor man's burnt ends and will be routing on my Buffalo Bills! We have a layer of ice from last night's snow/drizzle throw on the snow we are about to receive and things are gonna be slick as heck. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 24, 2021 Report Share Posted January 24, 2021 GDPS also weaker in eastern Iowa. Still 10” for MBY. So no real complaints. Just would be fun to see those 1 foot totals extend all the way across the state like models had been showing 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstorm83 Posted January 24, 2021 Report Share Posted January 24, 2021 2 1 Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4" 2018-19: 55.5" 2019-20: 17.6" 2020-21: 49.4" 2021-22: 5.1" Average: 26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted January 24, 2021 Report Share Posted January 24, 2021 Models looking good this morning. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 24, 2021 Report Share Posted January 24, 2021 Another burst of snow after I went to bed boosted my overnight snow total to 2.6"... an overperformer. Regarding the big storm, it's just not ideal to have the system shearing out as it traverses the region. The snow band over se NE into sw IA should be quite intense. 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstorm83 Posted January 24, 2021 Report Share Posted January 24, 2021 GEFS has moved north, looks similar to OP 2 1 Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4" 2018-19: 55.5" 2019-20: 17.6" 2020-21: 49.4" 2021-22: 5.1" Average: 26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Snowman Posted January 24, 2021 Report Share Posted January 24, 2021 Latest NWS preferred blend of models, continues to keep a relatively higher ceiling for the Omaha area compared to what the office is actually forecasting. 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 24, 2021 Report Share Posted January 24, 2021 UK has dropped totals a few inches in eastern Iowa. Had 10.8” last night for IC. Down to 7” this run Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 24, 2021 Report Share Posted January 24, 2021 Ukie 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 24, 2021 Report Share Posted January 24, 2021 Wave1 about to kick in mby! Hazardous Weather Outlook Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 332 AM EST Sun Jan 24 2021 MIZ063-068>070-075-076-082-083-250845- St. Clair-Livingston-Oakland-Macomb-Washtenaw-Wayne-Lenawee-Monroe- 332 AM EST Sun Jan 24 2021 This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southeast Michigan. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight An inch or two of snow is expected today as an upper level frontal system moves across the region. Special Weather Statement Special Weather Statement National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 1142 AM EST Sun Jan 24 2021 MIZ068>070-075-076-241815- Livingston-Oakland-Macomb-Washtenaw-Wayne- Including the cities of Howell, Pontiac, Warren, Ann Arbor, and Detroit 1142 AM EST Sun Jan 24 2021 ...CAUTIOUS TRAVEL IS ADVISED FOR SNOW-COVERED ROADWAYS AND HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON... WEATHER... * Light to occasional bursts of moderate snow will move through the greater Detroit metro region, Ann Arbor, and remaining areas between I-94 and M-59 through early afternoon. * Quick snowfall rates of around a half inch per hour will lead to snow-covered roadways as temperatures remain in the mid 20s, and will lead to slippery and hazardous travel conditions especially for untreated roadways. Untreated surfaces such as sidewalks and parking lots will also become slippery as a quick coating of snow is achieved. * Snow will taper off to periodic snow showers by 1 to 2 pm. IMPACTS... * Visibility less than one mile within any heavier bursts of snow. * Accumulating snow may lead to slippery roads particularly on bridges, exit ramps and overpasses. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 24, 2021 Report Share Posted January 24, 2021 4 minutes ago, bud2380 said: UK has dropped totals a few inches in eastern Iowa. Had 10.8” last night for IC. Down to 7” this run We do have to remember that all model runs up to last night's 00z include the wave 1 snowfall. 1 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted January 24, 2021 Report Share Posted January 24, 2021 5 minutes ago, jcwxguy said: Ukie Still looking very good for 10:1. I keep hearing it will be a wet snow, but my high temp is 20 on Monday and 19 Tuesday. Have you heard this? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 24, 2021 Report Share Posted January 24, 2021 I think some of these maps also include the mid week wave.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 24, 2021 Report Share Posted January 24, 2021 Finally got out to measure up here in Vadnais Heights. Just 3" but I think it compacted some. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Snowman Posted January 24, 2021 Report Share Posted January 24, 2021 00z parallel ECMWF just a tick north of the operational. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 24, 2021 Report Share Posted January 24, 2021 Yes model runs today look generally on track with what was expected last night save for the UK and HRRR which were actually drier, and the GFS which was wetter. That said, there is the possibility that models are weakening the snow too quickly as it goes east. All that said, OMA and LNK are locked in for 8” or more. I still could feasibly see 10” or more in CR/IC, but 8” is a more reasonable bet. We’d be locked in for a foot if only the wave didn’t decay so fast. Sad! 3 Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Snowman Posted January 24, 2021 Report Share Posted January 24, 2021 Looking like we'll actually see snow ratios in the realm of 12:1 (per a coalition of RAP/NAM), in contrast to the ~10:1 ratios previously expected. Canadian guidance starts ratios out at 14:1 early tomorrow morning before narrowing a bit towards 12:1 ... all in all, looking like the Kuchera maps could be a little more realistic (at least locally) than I was under the impression of. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 24, 2021 Report Share Posted January 24, 2021 7 hours ago, Tom said: They must feel darn confident....I'm not really surprised though, the models are pretty much locked in for E NE/IA folks. As I expected, LOT just issued a watch for our region! I'm digging this set up for my locale. Congrats on another Winter Storm warning buddy...keep 'em coming as they say. Congrats amigo! I bet it feels great to be in the game. Looks like I'll be waiting longer to get blue boxed. Had such hopes after early Euro runs like this one. Been trolled by that model way too much the past 3 seasons. 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
indianajohn Posted January 24, 2021 Report Share Posted January 24, 2021 30 minutes ago, snowstorm83 said: GEFS has moved north, looks similar to OP Well Looks like it’s heading north... on going story for our parts.. worried twe might miss out on the heavy snow... 1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Snowman Posted January 24, 2021 Report Share Posted January 24, 2021 NWS Omaha tinkering with the WSWarning text within the last half hour: Quote 1056 AM CST Sun Jan 24 2021 ...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM MONDAY TO 3 AM CST TUESDAY... * WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 6 to 13 inches. * WHERE...Portions of east central and southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa. * WHEN...From 6 AM Monday to 3 AM CST Tuesday. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 24, 2021 Author Report Share Posted January 24, 2021 14 minutes ago, jaster220 said: Congrats amigo! I bet it feels great to be in the game. Looks like I'll be waiting longer to get blue boxed. Had such hopes after early Euro runs like this one. Been trolled by that model way too much the past 3 seasons. Thanks Jaster! It does feel nice to finally be in the mix, however, the weakening of the wave as it heads East has me a bit concerned. As of now, I’m thinking the 6” threshold is a safe bet, not including the wild card for lehs. I feel for ya bud, you and I have been on the sidelines way to much in recent years. Hey, at least you’ll get something rather than nothing or a RN/SN mix slop fest. Gotta look at the bright side of things. 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstorm83 Posted January 24, 2021 Report Share Posted January 24, 2021 Taking 12z GFS verbatim: 1.5 QPF at KLNK with temps in the mid 20s, falling as all snow. Literally something you would see at hour 360, not hour 24. Kind of a random comment, but it just feels unreal. 7 Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4" 2018-19: 55.5" 2019-20: 17.6" 2020-21: 49.4" 2021-22: 5.1" Average: 26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryan1117 Posted January 24, 2021 Report Share Posted January 24, 2021 5 minutes ago, snowstorm83 said: Taking 12z GFS verbatim: 1.5 QPF at KLNK with temps in the mid 20s, falling as all snow. Literally something you would see at hour 360, not hour 24. Kind of a random comment, but it just feels unreal. Things are looking really good for Omaha and Lincoln... this looks to be the type of Winter storm system that we have all been waiting several years for. One thing that is going to be a big bonus with this storm is that the heaviest snow will be falling during the day time hours. 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OmahaSnowFan Posted January 24, 2021 Report Share Posted January 24, 2021 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Snowman Posted January 24, 2021 Report Share Posted January 24, 2021 For fun, NWS Omaha's 18"+ probabilities (per the 4am update) are non-zero in parts of the area! 1% chance for Omaha! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 24, 2021 Report Share Posted January 24, 2021 euro appears to be much weaker in Eastern Iowa. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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