Timmy Supercell Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 2 minutes ago, FroYoBro said: It is pretty obvious that this exact scenario is going to happen. Prepare now. Go to the store and BUY BUY BUY. SCREAM SCREAM SCREAM! Don't give them ideas. 1 1 Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 16 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, Severe storms: 2 ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 The key is to delay the low offshore merging with the arctic trough. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frontal Snowsquall Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 4 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: And the GFS is colder than the 18z at hour 108. Take that! Great start to the night! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perturbed Member Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 Please make this verify 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 5 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said: Looks like 850s bottom out at -18c for Seattle. Nice improvement from 18z overall. -18 is pretty epic. All we need is for the ECMWF to blink even a little bit and we are golden. 5 2 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 The gradient out of the Frazer is about 30mb from Seattle to Williams lake and that is crazy. 1 2 We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 1 minute ago, DJ Droppin said: ALERT! Oh my GOD. I saw someone in Rob's group post a map showing SLE getting 3/4" of ZR before switching to snow. 4 1 1 Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OysterPrintout Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 If the shoe were on the other foot it's one of those scenarios where you're happier to have the euro on your side but it looks a little more unsure about that low placement than the last 3 GFS runs and now you have to go hold serve at the 00z run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frontal Snowsquall Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 3 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said: Day 5 850s This works! PLEASE let the EURO follow this!!!! Praying that it will! This place will go crazy if it does. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 oh my god... Longview could see either 0 or subzero. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmet Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 2 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said: lol how is Longview at 1? Snow cover mostly likely 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 OMG that next low is hauling a** towards the SE. 2 Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skagit Weather Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 I predict a subsequent crash of forum emotions in about 2 hours. 1 1 1 Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008): Max Temp: 96.3F (2009) Min Temp: 2.0F (2008) Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021) Wettest Day: 2.34 (11/4/22) Avg Yearly Precip: 37" 10yr Avg Snow: 8.0" Snowfall Totals '08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5" | '21-22: 21.75" | '22-23: 10.0" 2023-24: 7.0" (1/17: 3", 1/18: 1.5", 2/26: 0.5", 3/4: 2.0", Flakes: 1/11, 1/16) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perturbed Member Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 Precip on the NE side of the low getting shredded by easterlies 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 1 minute ago, Deweydog said: One thing is for sure, the GFS 2m temp progs are still as ridiculous as they were back in January 2020. It has that January 2020 vibe to it, but comparing the two is a little disingenuous. There is a tad more help from the Pacific than 2020, and last year there was a raging +NAO, which offered no help whatsoever. There are drivers for Arctic air, in fact better so than 2020, though IMO their influence may be overdone. 4 Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perturbed Member Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 Off shore flow absolutely SHREDS it. 4 Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 Let's go get those teens and single digits! Holy shiet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmet Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: OMG that next low is hauling a** towards the SE. Doesn't really have a choice with this jet orientation 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 I'll be damned if the thing doesn't end up too suppressed now. This is ridiculous. 4 1 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jbolin Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 5 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said: The gradient out of the Frazer is about 30mb from Seattle to Williams lake and that is crazy. F*** that, nope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 The Euro is a better model than the GFS, but that doesn't mean some sort of compromise between the two of them isn't still usually the most likely scenario when they differ so drastically. GFS takes the weekend system well South too. WA stays cold and mainly dry. 3 Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 1 minute ago, Meatyorologist said: It has that January 2020 vibe to it, but comparing the two is a little disingenuous. There is a tad more help from the Pacific than 2020, and last year there was a raging +NAO, which offered no help whatsoever. There are drivers for Arctic air, in fact better so than 2020, though IMO their influence may be overdone. I’m not comparing the setups, just the model’s insane cold bias with low level continental air. 3 My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow drift Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 1 minute ago, snow_wizard said: I'll be damned if the thing doesn't end up too suppressed now. This is ridiculous. Historic cold potential 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmet Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 The 18z GFS was better regionally in terms of snow but it's nice to see the cold air settle on the 00z. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 1 minute ago, Deweydog said: I’m not comparing the setups, just the model’s insane cold bias with low level continental air. Ah, I see. The GFS is very advection-happy overall, yeah. It does help though that we have an established snowpack up in BC, something we sorely lacked last year. Another ace up our sleeves I suppose. I still think we end up somewhere in between the Euro and the GFS. 2 Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perturbed Member Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 5 minutes ago, wxmet said: Doesn't really have a choice with this jet orientation Yeah I like that trajectory with the lows heading SE. Wish the Euro would do that too. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 Well alright. 2 2 Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 3 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said: The Euro is a better model than the GFS, but that doesn't mean some sort of compromise between the two of them isn't still usually the most likely scenario when they differ so drastically. GFS takes the weekend system well South too. WA stays cold and mainly dry. Th truth is a compromise would be dead nuts on for all of us. All we need is for the ECMWF to blink just a tiny bit. That's it. 1 1 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jbolin Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 The burning question we all want answered, Is Randy going to be the only one plowing his driveway? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kolk1604 Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 1 minute ago, snow_wizard said: Th truth is a compromise would be dead nuts on for all of us. All we need is for the ECMWF to blink just a tiny bit. That's it. Yeah blink back to the 00z and forget the 12z 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 1 minute ago, Meatyorologist said: Ah, I see. The GFS is very advection-happy overall, yeah. It does help though that we have an established snowpack up in BC, something we sorely lacked last year. Another ace up our sleeves I suppose. I still think we end up somewhere in between the Euro and the GFS. Another aspect is the cold is already there in BC. It's having time to build up so it can flood in when the gradients become right. 1 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard777 Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 10 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said: lol how is Longview at 1? Someone must of paid Mr Snow Miser off in Longview! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 WTF 4 2 Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perturbed Member Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 Just keeps going 3 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 A nice steady drop in temperature since the CZ developed. Down to 39! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmet Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 2 minutes ago, nwsnow said: Yeah I like that trajectory with the lows heading SE. Wish the Euro would do that too. Heh. This where the IMBY comes into play. Not a good trajectory for Washington especially with an easterly gradient. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 3 1 1 1 Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulb/eugene Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 Holy ship 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow drift Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 We probably won't get much snow over here. I'll take some wind and some cold. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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