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February 2021 PacNW Weather Discussion


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I just experienced the craziest day of my life. Normal, routine doctor's visit quickly spiraled into a seven hour stay in the ER for a MRI scan to check for malignant tumors or multiple sclerosis. Tha

Downvote this post if you want snow.

Good morning,  As you know, back in late December I decided to end my jovial "ranting" here among you soulless bastard's to focus on more personal matters.  Well despite my better judgement

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11 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said:

Nope, and there is nothing shown for anyone to be excited.

Unless someone enjoys the thrill of the chase and a highly volatile pattern with lots of uncertainty... which is understandable.   

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Just now, GHweatherChris said:

Why Cozumel?

He is going with his girlfriend's family.  

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Another night of positive trends! See ya'll tomorrow!

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 9.8"                        2020-21: 40.47"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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5 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Another night of positive trends! See ya'll tomorrow!

How much snow you got now?

Everett Snowfall

 

2018-19: 24.75"

2019-20: 10.5"

 

1/10: 0.5"

1/12: 5.5"

1/13: 1"

1/14: 1.5"

1/15: 2"

 

 

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1 minute ago, bainbridgekid said:

How much snow you got now?

0"

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 9.8"                        2020-21: 40.47"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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Snowed late this afternoon, just a dusting. The next shower around 7p was 100% rain. This current shower started as rain turned to snow, no accumulation. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 9.8"                        2020-21: 40.47"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Snowed late this afternoon, just a dusting. The next shower around 7p was 100% rain. This current shower started as rain turned to snow, no accumulation. 

Dancing with the magical 528 thickness line.

Everett Snowfall

 

2018-19: 24.75"

2019-20: 10.5"

 

1/10: 0.5"

1/12: 5.5"

1/13: 1"

1/14: 1.5"

1/15: 2"

 

 

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1 minute ago, bainbridgekid said:

Dancing with the magical 528 thickness line.

Just stepped out and it is coming down moderately right now. Plenty of moisture to the west still, but has been very sporadic so far tonight over here along the foothills. I suspect if we get steady moderate precip, we will start to see accumulations. Either way, all kidding aside, I am not to invested in this one, anything we get will be a nice bonus. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 9.8"                        2020-21: 40.47"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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21 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Just stepped out and it is coming down moderately right now. Plenty of moisture to the west still, but has been very sporadic so far tonight over here along the foothills. I suspect if we get steady moderate precip, we will start to see accumulations. Either way, all kidding aside, I am not to invested in this one, anything we get will be a nice bonus. 

It is really pouring here right now and the radar looks pretty healthy. Gotta think you will see some accumulation over the next couple of hours. 

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1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

The 00Z ECMWF is about as bad as it gets for cold and snow at that point... GOA troughing and huge trough in the SE with arctic moving into Atlanta.

The south is the place to go for cold and snow.

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10 minutes ago, Cloud said:

Shannon seems to think winter is doomed. And she got daffodils/other bloomies to prove it. 
 

 

I can advocate for her as our flowers are in late March mode.  You have to have some keen sense of plants to understand but city folks like most on here won't sadly. 

Planters are either enthusiastic for the early spring or very scared 'as they should be' since generally early warmth greatly increases the odds of a severe cold wave in April. This could easily wipe it all out in just a few hours then.

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4 minutes ago, Cloud said:

Shannon seems to think winter is doomed. And she got daffodils/other bloomies to prove it. 
 

 

It's been a very warm Winter so makes sense they'd be blooming ahead of schedule. No predictive value there though.

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Everett Snowfall

 

2018-19: 24.75"

2019-20: 10.5"

 

1/10: 0.5"

1/12: 5.5"

1/13: 1"

1/14: 1.5"

1/15: 2"

 

 

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Very blustery, gusts up to 35mph. Not too shabby. 41F with light rain.

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Springfield, Oregon cold season 20-21 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 38F (Nov 21)
  • Coldest low: 23F (Oct 26)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 36 (Most recent: Feb 24, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 3 (Most recent: Dec 24)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

GoFundMe: www.gofundme.com/CollegeBasketballvsEpilepsy

My Twitter @357jerseys4hope

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10 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Very blustery, gusts up to 35mph. Not too shabby. 41F with light rain.

Windy here too and no one forecast this. Salem area gusting over 40mph.


Decent little storm around 1000-10002mb

image.png

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45 minutes ago, Andrew M said:

Woke up to big wet flakes here this morning about 30 minutes ago in the West Hills of Portland, nothing sticking though, 34.7 degrees.

It was nearly all snow around up by Sylvan on 26 on my way to work this morning.

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1 minute ago, umadbro said:

It was nearly all snow around up by Sylvan on 26 on my way to work this morning.

Yep same here, another degree or two colder and it could have been an interesting morning. I am just slightly up the hill above Sylvan.

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Woke up around 2am with about 1" on the ground and heavy snow falling. Had 3" by 4a, ended up with 3.5". 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 9.8"                        2020-21: 40.47"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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Looks like 36F and cloudy this morning.

Springfield, Oregon cold season 20-21 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 38F (Nov 21)
  • Coldest low: 23F (Oct 26)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 36 (Most recent: Feb 24, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 3 (Most recent: Dec 24)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

GoFundMe: www.gofundme.com/CollegeBasketballvsEpilepsy

My Twitter @357jerseys4hope

24

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Snow level not as impressive here this morning...

20210203_075149.jpg

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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6 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

12z GFS looks to be making a move towards the Euro through D3. Block is slightly more west allowing the downstream trough to follow suit. 

gfs-deterministic-namer-z500_anom-2645200.png

gfs-deterministic-namer-z500_anom-2645200-1.png

12Z GFS is vastly different than its 00Z run by next Monday.    Looks ripe for potential on this run.

 

gfs-deterministic-namer-z500_anom-2807200 (1).png

gfs-deterministic-namer-z500_anom-2807200.png

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Just checked the 00Z EPS... it actually shows a progression like the 12Z GFS is showing.    But it was an ugly run overall.   

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-z500_anom-1612310400-1612310400-1613606400-20.gif

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2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Just checked the 00Z EPS... it actually shows a progression like the 12Z GFS is showing.    But it was an ugly run overall.   

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-z500_anom-1612310400-1612310400-1613606400-20.gif

Phew that's a relief. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 9.8"                        2020-21: 40.47"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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Looks like the 12Z GFS delivers some chilly air early next week and maybe a little snow in places as it comes around to the ECMWF and EPS solution... but that also means it won't be nearly as good as previous runs later on.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Looks like the 12Z GFS delivers some chilly air early next week and maybe a little snow in places as it comes around to the ECMWF and EPS solution... but that also means it won't be nearly as good as previous runs later on.  

So our choice is immediate returns or false hope of a good future. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 9.8"                        2020-21: 40.47"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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This run is so different later next week.   Looks much more like what the ECMWF was showing last night.

Compare the 12Z GFS on top to the 00Z GFS on the bottom... complete flip. 

 

gfs-deterministic-namer-z500_anom-3098800.png

gfs-deterministic-namer-z500_anom-3098800 (1).png

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1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

So our choice is immediate returns or false hope of a good future. 

Yeah... this is true.   Always better to have improvements in the shorter term.

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For a split second I thought there might have been some positive vibes with the posts...Luckily Tim is here to make sure I keep with my NOT ONBOARD and this winter is over mindset. 
Can’t wait to go Jetsking! 

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1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Yeah... this is true.   Always better to have improvements in the shorter term.

EURO will probably flip now. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 9.8"                        2020-21: 40.47"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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Just now, MossMan said:

For a split second I thought there might have been some positive vibes with the posts...Luckily Tim is here to make sure I keep with my NOT ONBOARD and this winter is over mindset. 

Probably should shut the place down.

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3 minutes ago, MossMan said:

For a split second I thought there might have been some positive vibes with the posts...Luckily Tim is here to make sure I keep with my NOT ONBOARD and this winter is over mindset. 
Can’t wait to go Jetsking! 

You might get snow on Monday!  

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3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

EURO will probably flip now. 

Yeah... would not surprise me.   

But the GFS did completely cave to the ECMWF this morning.

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Snow over the next week per the 12Z GFS... Randy!! 

Screenshot_20210203-083425_Chrome.jpg

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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8 minutes ago, MossMan said:

For a split second I thought there might have been some positive vibes with the posts...Luckily Tim is here to make sure I keep with my NOT ONBOARD and this winter is over mindset. 
Can’t wait to go Jetsking! 

I was actually pretty hopeful about where the 12Z GFS was going when it was out to about 96 hours... but then it turned into this by day 10.     

gfs-deterministic-namer-z500_anom-3217600.png

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