February 2021 PacNW Weather Discussion

[Meatyorologist 1998]

9 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

It is slightly cooler on that side of the mountains!  

And look at Canada... just a bit warm!

 

[GHweatherChris 3483]

40 minutes ago, Acer said:

I don't think this run is going to pull Chris out of his believable range funk.

Nope, and there is nothing shown for anyone to be excited.

[GHweatherChris 3483]

14 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

My son is actually going to Cozumel on that same day!  

Why Cozumel?

[TT-SEA 3620]

11 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said:

Nope, and there is nothing shown for anyone to be excited.

Unless someone enjoys the thrill of the chase and a highly volatile pattern with lots of uncertainty... which is understandable.   

[TT-SEA 3620]

Just now, GHweatherChris said:

Why Cozumel?

He is going with his girlfriend's family.  

[SilverFallsAndrew 14731]

Another night of positive trends! See ya'll tomorrow!

[bainbridgekid 3853]

5 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Another night of positive trends! See ya'll tomorrow!

How much snow you got now?

[SilverFallsAndrew 14731]

1 minute ago, bainbridgekid said:

How much snow you got now?

0"

[SilverFallsAndrew 14731]

Snowed late this afternoon, just a dusting. The next shower around 7p was 100% rain. This current shower started as rain turned to snow, no accumulation. 

[bainbridgekid 3853]

2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Snowed late this afternoon, just a dusting. The next shower around 7p was 100% rain. This current shower started as rain turned to snow, no accumulation. 

Dancing with the magical 528 thickness line.

[ShawniganLake 5442]

It’s raining here. No splats. I just checked. 

[SilverFallsAndrew 14731]

1 minute ago, bainbridgekid said:

Dancing with the magical 528 thickness line.

Just stepped out and it is coming down moderately right now. Plenty of moisture to the west still, but has been very sporadic so far tonight over here along the foothills. I suspect if we get steady moderate precip, we will start to see accumulations. Either way, all kidding aside, I am not to invested in this one, anything we get will be a nice bonus. 

[FroYoBro 2648]

21 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Just stepped out and it is coming down moderately right now. Plenty of moisture to the west still, but has been very sporadic so far tonight over here along the foothills. I suspect if we get steady moderate precip, we will start to see accumulations. Either way, all kidding aside, I am not to invested in this one, anything we get will be a nice bonus. 

It is really pouring here right now and the radar looks pretty healthy. Gotta think you will see some accumulation over the next couple of hours. 

[Snowdrift 409]

1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

The 00Z ECMWF is about as bad as it gets for cold and snow at that point... GOA troughing and huge trough in the SE with arctic moving into Atlanta.

The south is the place to go for cold and snow.

[Cloud 1510]

Shannon seems to think winter is doomed. And she got daffodils/other bloomies to prove it. 
 

 

[Link 4]

10 minutes ago, Cloud said:

Shannon seems to think winter is doomed. And she got daffodils/other bloomies to prove it. 
 

 

I can advocate for her as our flowers are in late March mode.  You have to have some keen sense of plants to understand but city folks like most on here won't sadly. 

Planters are either enthusiastic for the early spring or very scared 'as they should be' since generally early warmth greatly increases the odds of a severe cold wave in April. This could easily wipe it all out in just a few hours then.

[bainbridgekid 3853]

4 minutes ago, Cloud said:

Shannon seems to think winter is doomed. And she got daffodils/other bloomies to prove it. 
 

 

It's been a very warm Winter so makes sense they'd be blooming ahead of schedule. No predictive value there though.

[DJ Droppin 9299]

It snowed L A S T

M  A  R  C  H

[TigerWoodsLibido 5557]

Very blustery, gusts up to 35mph. Not too shabby. 41F with light rain.

[GHweatherChris 3483]

1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

He is going with his girlfriend's family.  

That doesn't sound like essential travel. But, whatever.

[DJ Droppin 9299]

10 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Very blustery, gusts up to 35mph. Not too shabby. 41F with light rain.

Windy here too and no one forecast this. Salem area gusting over 40mph.

Decent little storm around 1000-10002mb

[DJ Droppin 9299]

6z GFS Day 4 (Past 4 runs) UMM......

[DJ Droppin 9299]

Closer, but nope

[DJ Droppin 9299]

Somehow, colder air modified arctic air makes it into the Columbia Basin Day 8-9. Very wacky, wonky pattern.

[Andrew M 201]

Woke up to big wet flakes here this morning about 30 minutes ago in the West Hills of Portland, nothing sticking though, 34.7 degrees.

[MWG 194]

Woke up to just rain. It's currently 36 degrees. 

[umadbro 778]

45 minutes ago, Andrew M said:

Woke up to big wet flakes here this morning about 30 minutes ago in the West Hills of Portland, nothing sticking though, 34.7 degrees.

It was nearly all snow around up by Sylvan on 26 on my way to work this morning.

[Andrew M 201]

1 minute ago, umadbro said:

It was nearly all snow around up by Sylvan on 26 on my way to work this morning.

Yep same here, another degree or two colder and it could have been an interesting morning. I am just slightly up the hill above Sylvan.

[SilverFallsAndrew 14731]

Woke up around 2am with about 1" on the ground and heavy snow falling. Had 3" by 4a, ended up with 3.5". 

[SilverFallsAndrew 14731]

L

[TigerWoodsLibido 5557]

Looks like 36F and cloudy this morning.

[TT-SEA 3620]

Snow level not as impressive here this morning...

[hawkstwelve 7241]

12z GFS looks to be making a move towards the Euro through D3. Block is slightly more west allowing the downstream trough to follow suit. 

[MossMan 10551]

Memories...Nothing more than Memories...

Day 1 of like 44 straight FB memories of snow that will be popping up. Got way more than a foot! 

[TT-SEA 3620]

6 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

12z GFS looks to be making a move towards the Euro through D3. Block is slightly more west allowing the downstream trough to follow suit. 

12Z GFS is vastly different than its 00Z run by next Monday.    Looks ripe for potential on this run.

 

[paulb/eugene 583]

GFS:  “my bad, sorry I forgot to give you some cold air...so here’s some.  I won’t forget you next winter”

[TT-SEA 3620]

Just checked the 00Z EPS... it actually shows a progression like the 12Z GFS is showing.    But it was an ugly run overall.   

[SilverFallsAndrew 14731]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Just checked the 00Z EPS... it actually shows a progression like the 12Z GFS is showing.    But it was an ugly run overall.   

Phew that's a relief. 

[TT-SEA 3620]

Looks like the 12Z GFS delivers some chilly air early next week and maybe a little snow in places as it comes around to the ECMWF and EPS solution... but that also means it won't be nearly as good as previous runs later on.  

[SilverFallsAndrew 14731]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Looks like the 12Z GFS delivers some chilly air early next week and maybe a little snow in places as it comes around to the ECMWF and EPS solution... but that also means it won't be nearly as good as previous runs later on.  

So our choice is immediate returns or false hope of a good future. 

[TT-SEA 3620]

This run is so different later next week.   Looks much more like what the ECMWF was showing last night.

Compare the 12Z GFS on top to the 00Z GFS on the bottom... complete flip. 

 

[TT-SEA 3620]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

So our choice is immediate returns or false hope of a good future. 

Yeah... this is true.   Always better to have improvements in the shorter term.

[MossMan 10551]

For a split second I thought there might have been some positive vibes with the posts...Luckily Tim is here to make sure I keep with my NOT ONBOARD and this winter is over mindset. 
Can’t wait to go Jetsking! 

[SilverFallsAndrew 14731]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Yeah... this is true.   Always better to have improvements in the shorter term.

EURO will probably flip now. 

[iFred 5151]

Just now, MossMan said:

For a split second I thought there might have been some positive vibes with the posts...Luckily Tim is here to make sure I keep with my NOT ONBOARD and this winter is over mindset. 

Probably should shut the place down.

[MossMan 10551]

2 minutes ago, iFred said:

Probably should shut the place down.

Until December 2021...It’s going to Rock our worlds! 

[TT-SEA 3620]

3 minutes ago, MossMan said:

For a split second I thought there might have been some positive vibes with the posts...Luckily Tim is here to make sure I keep with my NOT ONBOARD and this winter is over mindset. 
Can’t wait to go Jetsking! 

You might get snow on Monday!  

[TT-SEA 3620]

3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

EURO will probably flip now. 

Yeah... would not surprise me.   

But the GFS did completely cave to the ECMWF this morning.

[TT-SEA 3620]

Snow over the next week per the 12Z GFS... Randy!! 

[TT-SEA 3620]

8 minutes ago, MossMan said:

For a split second I thought there might have been some positive vibes with the posts...Luckily Tim is here to make sure I keep with my NOT ONBOARD and this winter is over mindset. 
Can’t wait to go Jetsking! 

I was actually pretty hopeful about where the 12Z GFS was going when it was out to about 96 hours... but then it turned into this by day 10.