February 2014 in the PNW

[Parksvillewx]

To Weather101, I'm not sure, that is a really tricky place.  Didn't they have a jewelry store there at one time who offered free diamonds when they had over a certain amount of snow?  I'm sure they'd only do that if it were rare.

 

In Bellingham, any onset snow will be tempered by strong outflow that will be drying things out (very cold/dry source air to the NE).  The best chance of significant snow in the Fraser valley will be with overrunning precipitation later in the period if the Seattle-Everett-Mt Vernon core gets in on the cold. Lighter outflow and a more northern solution would favor the northern portions of the area. Vancouver ... depends where you are. Water all around, elevation differences are huge even within the city, ...   glad I'm in Washington!  Victoria may do well (especially in away from the water).

 

What about East Van Island?  Chance of some sea effect snow or will the outflow not be strong enough?  Probably a nowcasting scenario like usual Im assuming.

[Snowman5678]

This is one of the main things I'm worried about for the EPSL. I think we'll get cold and we'll get moisture but I'm praying to whatever weather gods exist that the downslope east wind off the Cascades doesn't dry us out too much.

Ya i hope so too...

[jaya]

Just a note, the official NWS forecast will likely be a mixture of the model solutions, good and bad.  The forecasters really want their forecasts and warnings to verify well. Uncertainty abounds in these situations on a normal winter day. It is higher now. The forecasters need to take many things into account - impacts, cost of a bad forecast, etc. when uncertainty is high.  They really try to do a good job, despite what some posts above imply.  They will not jump on a fun model and go with it on a whim (at least the experienced ones won't). 

[Jesse]

Jaya - any thoughts on the Columbia Gorge?

[jaya]

Btw, it is easier to forecast snow in Spokane (it snows there and gets cold on a more regular basis). Portland gets east wind out the gorge (can help with snow and freezing rain).  Seattle is unlucky (lucky if you are not a fan of snow and cold) because of its geography (I guess the settlers had an idea on why Seattle would be a good location to build a great city as back in the old days people liked mild and protected!)

[jaya]

Hi Jesse, I'll defer to my friends in Portland and Pendleton.  It does seem that cold air will spill into eastern Washington, but will it make it that far south?  The same issues that will impact Seattle (how the pv evoloves, surface low pressure development offshore, etc) will have impacts to the east of the Cascades as well. The cold air could hang up north of the Horse Heaven hills, or not. 

[jaya]

18z gfs appears that it will show weaker cold advection across the northwest with the pv elongating more westward, then southern stream taking over more quickly on Sunday. Much more marginal for western Washington snow unless you are up toward Bellingham. Quicker warm up all around.

[Snowman5678]

Awesome analysis Jaya! Concerned about A. being on the southern edge of the snow range but also the east winds drying the EPSL out a bit...fingers crossed it shifts south a bit. 

[jaya]

Snowman5678, East wind may be your friend if precipitation is heavy enough.  The 3 inch snowfall we got back on the 8th or 9th (I forget) was with a screaming east wind, and the models said NO SNOW FOR SEATTLE!.  Got burned by that one!  As long as the east wind is deep cold, and precip rates are heavy, it can precip. While the WRF can sure look pretty and give a good deal of specifics on the details, it is bad about overdoing both shadowing and upslope precip amounts.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Snowman5678, East wind may be your friend if precipitation is heavy enough.  The 3 inch snowfall we got back on the 8th or 9th (I forget) was with a screaming east wind, and the models said NO SNOW FOR SEATTLE!.  Got burned by that one!  As long as the east wind is deep cold, and precip rates are heavy, it can precip. While the WRF can sure look pretty and give a good deal of specifics on the details, it is bad about overdoing both shadowing and upslope precip amounts.

What about hood canal?

[Snowman5678]

Snowman5678, East wind may be your friend if precipitation is heavy enough.  The 3 inch snowfall we got back on the 8th or 9th (I forget) was with a screaming east wind, and the models said NO SNOW FOR SEATTLE!.  Got burned by that one!  As long as the east wind is deep cold, and precip rates are heavy, it can precip. While the WRF can sure look pretty and give a good deal of specifics on the details, it is bad about overdoing both shadowing and upslope precip amounts.

 

Yes true, i've seen both times when they have aided us but also when they have screwed us over...Hopefully the precip is heavy enough!

[East Dubzz]

In other news, what a winter this has been for the Midwest. Cities all over the place are breaking their all-time records for # of lows <0F. These records in some cases go back to the 19th century. I've been de-railing threads with this observation for years now, but we're now leaving the 1998-2012 regime, which witnessed a dramatic poleward migration and broadening/weakening of the Hadley Cells, especially over the IO/SE Asian domain.

 

The broad forcing state has been changing dramatically since 2009 in response to the now evident positive disequilibrium in the tropics (Raw NOAA 15/16 - - - CERES, AIRS, and the Sonde network are now in agreement here). Once we leave the current solar maximum, the changes will be rapid in the Northern Hemisphere, with an especially dramatic shift in climate north of 40N.

 

 

In other news, what a winter this has been for the Midwest. Cities all over the place are breaking their all-time records for # of lows <0F. These records in some cases go back to the 19th century. I've been de-railing threads with this observation for years now, but we're now leaving the 1998-2012 regime, which witnessed a dramatic poleward migration and broadening/weakening of the Hadley Cells, especially over the IO/SE Asian domain.

 

The broad forcing state has been changing dramatically since 2009 in response to the now evident positive disequilibrium in the tropics (Raw NOAA 15/16 - - - CERES, AIRS, and the Sonde network are now in agreement here). Once we leave the current solar maximum, the changes will be rapid in the Northern Hemisphere, with an especially dramatic shift in climate north of 40N.

This winter is straight up misery. It started off fun, but this constant brutal cold is just terrible now. A low of -14 forecasted today, only got up to 7 here today. I wish I had some of the weather you guys get, I miss warm weather.

[Weather101]

Snowman5678, East wind may be your friend if precipitation is heavy enough. The 3 inch snowfall we got back on the 8th or 9th (I forget) was with a screaming east wind, and the models said NO SNOW FOR SEATTLE!. Got burned by that one! As long as the east wind is deep cold, and precip rates are heavy, it can precip. While the WRF can sure look pretty and give a good deal of specifics on the details, it is bad about overdoing both shadowing and upslope precip amounts.

You think being up north Vancouver BC is a good spot like last weekend?

[Timmy]

This winter is straight up misery. It started off fun, but this constant brutal cold is just terrible now. A low of -14 forecasted today, only got up to 7 here today. I wish I had some of the weather you guys get, I miss warm weather.

the grass is always greener... Especially in warmer, wetter areas.

[Phil]

This winter is straight up misery. It started off fun, but this constant brutal cold is just terrible now. A low of -14 forecasted today, only got up to 7 here today. I wish I had some of the weather you guys get, I miss warm weather.

Where do you reside? Yeah, it's been nuts. I'm forecasted to drop to -2F tonight.

 

The sub-zero lows have been routine this winter..I can't remember anything like it..

 

I can't recall my forecast ever looking like this in Mar: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=39.546941396253146&lon=-79.37347412109375#.Uw_G_Hi9LCS

[East Dubzz]

Where do you reside? Yeah, it's been nuts. I'm forecasted to drop to -2F tonight.

 

The sub-zero lows have been routine this winter..I can't remember anything like it..

 

I can't recall my forecast ever looking like this in Mar: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=39.546941396253146&lon=-79.37347412109375#.Uw_G_Hi9LCS

I live in East Dubuque, Illinois, literally the town in very NW Illinois where Iowa, Wisconsin, and Illinois meet.

[Phil]

I live in East Dubuque, Illinois, literally the town in very NW Illinois where Iowa, Wisconsin, and Illinois meet.

In other words, the North Pole of winter 2013-14.

 

I can't imagine how you've coped with the -20F stuff all winter. I had one low below -20F in January, and it was literally painful to go outside. I lost all feeling in my face just getting the mail.

[MossMan]

Just a note, the official NWS forecast will likely be a mixture of the model solutions, good and bad.  The forecasters really want their forecasts and warnings to verify well. Uncertainty abounds in these situations on a normal winter day. It is higher now. The forecasters need to take many things into account - impacts, cost of a bad forecast, etc. when uncertainty is high.  They really try to do a good job, despite what some posts above imply.  They will not jump on a fun model and go with it on a whim (at least the experienced ones won't).

 

I do apologize for dogging on your co-workers at NWS, we are all just weather geeks that are starved for snow around here, and also ALWAYS want the top dogs analysis all the time!

[Jesse]

In other news, what a winter this has been for the Midwest. Cities all over the place are breaking their all-time records for # of lows

 

The broad forcing state has been changing dramatically since 2009 in response to the now evident positive disequilibrium in the tropics (Raw NOAA 15/16 - - - CERES, AIRS, and the Sonde network are now in agreement here). Once we leave the current solar maximum, the changes will be rapid in the Northern Hemisphere, with an especially dramatic shift in climate north of 40N.

When are you expecting the current solar max to fade?

[Weather101]

3. Potential for more accumulating snow over Vancouver Island and into the Vancouver, BC, area Sunday into Monday. Too early to have a good idea on accumulations but potential is certainly there for significant accumulations. I will keep you posted.

 

Brett Anderson weather blog

[seattleweatherguy]

According to the NWS the ecwf has turned warmer. True if so this event probably is over for seattle.

[Phil]

When are you expecting the current solar max to fade?

A good way to determine this is to look at the IMF polarity from the previous cycle. It's a great predictor for cycle-length and amplitude.

 

This suggests that the while the current solar cycle should last 13-14 years, we're passed the cycle peak, and should see a notable decline begin between 2016-2018. Also, in watching the current IMF/polar field developments, we're essentially watching solar cycle 25 take shape. The closer to zero the IMF ends up at peak deviation, the weaker solar cycle 25 will be.

 

We can see that this method predicted the rapid incline of solar cycle 24, and the early peak (the 2000-2004 period correlates to 2007-2011, for example)..

 

http://www.leif.org/research/Solar-Polar-Fields-1966-now.png

[pscz1140]

Just took a look at the 18z ensembles. I can't remember the last time that all of the ensembles were in one camp and the operational was so drastically different at such a short range. It's like 6 degrees warmer than the ensemble mean two days out. I understand the terrain issues, but wow.

 

[Phil]

Just took a look at the 18z ensembles. I can't remember the last time that all of the ensembles were in one camp and the operational was so drastically different at such a short range. It's like 6 degrees warmer than the ensemble mean two days out. I understand the terrain issues, but wow.

 

temp_49.png

That's essentially what I've been trying to say. The fact is the GEFS does not have the resolution to adequately handle the Cascades. There could be more to it than that...I have not compared the GEFS with the OP @ 500 mb.

 

However, given the trajectory of the airmass and the coinciding wind-field, I would expect the differences to be especially glaring with this one.

[GHweatherChris]

That's essentially what I've been trying to say. The fact is the GEFS does not have the resolution to adequately handle the Cascades. There could be more to it than that...I have not compared the GEFS with the OP @ 500 mb.

 

However, given the trajectory of the airmass and the coinciding wind-field, I would expect the differences to be especially glaring with this one.

The discrepancy is insane right now OP vs Ensembles, something has to give.  Or, I guess the GFS can just be totally written off moving forward.  I for one think the ensembles are showing the more likely scenario.

[Bryant]

The discrepancy is insane right now OP vs Ensembles, something has to give.  Or, I guess the GFS can just be totally written off moving forward.  I for one think the ensembles are showing the more likely scenario.

We've seen this before, and as Phil has mentioned, the op should be used when closer to the event. It's a higher resolution, and typically does better.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

Its frustrating to see people here talk utter crap about promets (not you 'hawkstwelve', but using your post as a springboard). It is one thing to comment about how [insert name of prominent PDX or SEA TV Met] hates snow, or is too focused on the gorge, but another to bash people like Cliff Mass or those with the Weather Service, just because they don't put the same faith some of you do in the 06z NAM-GFS-ROMANIAN. I am working hard to bring more pro mets onto the board, but not everyone wants to jump into a forum that will tar and feather them for a forecast they don't like.

I completely agree.  Whatever these guys feel about snow and cold, their livelihood depends on them being accurate.  Whether you are talking about TV mets, local NWS pros, or even Joe Bastardi, if their forecasts are as inaccurate as mine would be (which is why I do not even try), they would end up bagging groceries instead of forecasting weather. 

 

And they also have forecasting tools that we do not have, as well as more training and knowledge.  If you read one of the real technical AFD's, especially some of the ones Spokane puts out, you will know what I am talking about.

[The Swamp]

I completely agree.  Whatever these guys feel about snow and cold, their livelihood depends on them being accurate.  Whether you are talking about TV mets, local NWS pros, or even Joe Bastardi, if their forecasts are as inaccurate as mine would be (which is why I do not even try), they would end up bagging groceries instead of forecasting weather. 

 

And they also have forecasting tools that we do not have, as well as more training and knowledge.  If you read one of the real technical AFD's, especially some of the ones Spokane puts out, you will know what I am talking about.

 

The Seattle AFD's are garbage and you know it.  it has nothing to do with snow, rain, wind, sun or lightning.  Overall their write ups just suck balls.  That's my only beef with the Seattle NWS folks.  Folks who frequent this forum want a little more detail than they continually put out(not just winter/snow related).

[GHweatherChris]

We've seen this before, and as Phil has mentioned, the op should be used when closer to the event. It's a higher resolution, and typically does better.

Maybe.

 

But if that is the case, then I don't wanna see anyone get excited about the ensembles ever again.

 

The ensembles are available for a reason, and if they all show something entirely different than the OP (which they are) then I would tend to lean their way.  But what do I know, I am not a Pro Met.

[Phil]

Maybe.

 

But if that is the case, then I don't wanna see anyone get excited about the ensembles ever again.

 

The ensembles are available for a reason, and if they all show something entirely different than the OP (which they are) then I would tend to lean their way.  But what do I know, I am not a Pro Met.

The OP runs should be weighted over the ensembles in the short range. The ensembles are a medium/long range forecasting tool.

[GHweatherChris]

The Seattle AFD's are garbage and you know it.  it has nothing to do with snow, rain, wind, sun or lightning.  Overall their write ups just suck balls.  That's my only beef with the Seattle NWS folks.  Folks who frequent this forum want a little more detail than they continually put out(not just winter/snow related).

Well said Jon,

 

When the weather is slow, the SEA AFD's say nothing different other than the time posted and the person who posted it's last name.  No matter what the PDX and Spokan AFD's always explain whats going on in detail, and the funny thing is the local weather posers(on the news) use the AFD's to explain their 38 day forecasts.

 

The possibilities this weekend shown across all the models should be explained in more detail or they should just start directing people towards this forum for better information.

[GHweatherChris]

The OP runs should be weighted over the ensembles in the short range. The ensembles are a medium/long range forecasting tool.

OK i get it, you feel the OP is better short term, but I am allowed my own opinion as well.

 

I am not saying either one will be correct, but when you have every single ensemble in the short term screaming a totally different outcome than the OP, they cannot be ignored considering the major differences of outcome that could occur.  And, other models have shown something more close to the GFS ensembles than the GFS OP recently as well.

 

We shall wait and see.

 

I am not expecting a major event of snow at all, but all possibilities are in play.

[Abbotsford_wx]

The WRF has been much closer to the GFS ensembles than the operational. Any idea why that is? I thought the WRF was specially designed to handle the terrain in this area, which I would think gives it some weight over the operational and lends some credibility to the ensembles.

[GHweatherChris]

The WRF has been much closer to the GFS ensembles than the operational. Any idea why that is? I thought the WRF was specially designed to handle the terrain in this area, which I would think gives it some weight over the operational and lends some credibility to the ensembles.

Nope, the OP is the best.

 

Oh wait, no, the GEM is the best. 

 

I keep losing track.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Nope, the OP is the best.

 

Oh wait, no, the GEM is the best. 

 

I keep losing track.

I like the avn.

[Weather101]

Nope, the OP is the best.

 

Oh wait, no, the GEM is the best.

 

I keep losing track.

Wait wait.. Isn't the Euro the best?

[GHweatherChris]

Wait wait.. Isn't the Euro the best?

Nope, thats the Gold Standard.  But we don't use it anymore.  Its foreign.

[TT-SEA]

MM5 NAM is now dry for Saturday and then scours out the cold air as the precip arrives on Sunday except in Bellingham.

 

Looks just like the last event for Seattle.

[GHweatherChris]

I like the avn.

I like the WEOEUBR model. 

 

I have a smiley ready for whoever figures that out.

[GHweatherChris]

MM5 NAM is now dry for Saturday and then scours out the cold air as the precip arrives on Sunday except in Bellingham.

 

Looks just like the last event for Seattle.

The last event for Seattle meant zero snow there and over a foot in alot of places up north.  Will it happen again?