Meatyorologist Posted October 31, 2021 Report Share Posted October 31, 2021 5 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: Looking like first half of November is going to torch big time. Best time to do it. 2 2 1 Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted October 31, 2021 Report Share Posted October 31, 2021 13 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: Looking like first half of November is going to torch big time. If we're getting mackerel sky sunsets, YUUGE analogs!! 6 1 1 Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 21 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, 5/4, 5/5, 5/6, 5/7 5/8, Severe storms: 2 ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 31, 2021 Report Share Posted October 31, 2021 18z GFS 10 Day Rainfall, Snowfall totals. Nice to see 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anti Marine Layer Posted November 1, 2021 Report Share Posted November 1, 2021 2 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said: 18z GFS 10 Day Rainfall, Snowfall totals. Nice to see Let's hope it materializes. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anti Marine Layer Posted November 1, 2021 Report Share Posted November 1, 2021 Dry springs followed by wet winters seem to create the highest fire danger. 2 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted November 1, 2021 Report Share Posted November 1, 2021 11 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said: 18z GFS 10 Day Rainfall, Snowfall totals. Nice to see Looks fairly lubed up vs prior runs, or am I mistaken 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 1, 2021 Report Share Posted November 1, 2021 Warm enough today too have short sleeves on. Saw 62° in quite a few spots on the eastside. Now a good 5 to 7° cooler out. 2 Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 1, 2021 Report Share Posted November 1, 2021 Some really dry air in place this evening. Anywhere that's able to decouple could get pretty chilly indeed. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 1, 2021 Report Share Posted November 1, 2021 17 minutes ago, Geos said: Warm enough today too have short sleeves on. Saw 62° in quite a few spots on the eastside. Now a good 5 to 7° cooler out. It actually felt pretty good this afternoon. Most places are dropping like a rock now. I kind of like November in a case like this year. If it's warm that's a great sign going forward, and if it's cold....I always like cold. I think my wish for November would be plenty of mild weather, but with a period of cold zonal flow followed by a cold trough later on. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted November 1, 2021 Report Share Posted November 1, 2021 11 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: Some really dry air in place this evening. Anywhere that's able to decouple could get pretty chilly indeed. are you getting paid by the post or something 1 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted November 1, 2021 Report Share Posted November 1, 2021 8 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: It actually felt pretty good this afternoon. Most places are dropping like a rock now. I kind of like November in a case like this year. If it's warm that's a great sign going forward, and if it's cold....I always like cold. I think my wish for November would be plenty of mild weather, but with a period of cold zonal flow followed by a cold trough later on. So warm but cold? 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 1, 2021 Report Share Posted November 1, 2021 Its absolutely perfect out trick-or-treating with my daughter and her friends right now. 55 degrees and just the slightest breeze. One of the most pleasant Halloween evenings we can remember. My wife says this is the best one in our 17 years of trick-or-treating with our kids here. 4 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted November 1, 2021 Report Share Posted November 1, 2021 I really wish we could see an r-squared or confidence rating for model runs. I know we can read between the lines by looking at consistency between runs and comparing ensembles v mean v deterministic etc. Maybe that type of simple output isnt really possible with weather models and forecasting and the finance nerd in me is just going to have to accept that. Plus i know there are like 100 other variables that go into specific location forecasting, and especially PNW where small differences can mean all or nothing for some locations due to rain shadow or convergence zones etc. What spurred this thought was looking at the meteograms for precip.....both EPS + GEFS are sort of all over the place on timing and amounts after monday night. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted November 1, 2021 Report Share Posted November 1, 2021 Nice sunset again tonight. Will be heading home tomorrow morning…had a great time but super sore and tired from all the hiking and sightseeing this weekend. Ready to head home hopefully I don’t have to wait tooooo long to get on a ferry in the morning. 7 Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 1, 2021 Report Share Posted November 1, 2021 1 hour ago, RentonHillTC said: Looks fairly lubed up vs prior runs, or am I mistaken 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 1, 2021 Report Share Posted November 1, 2021 37 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said: are you getting paid by the post or something Dang! 684? Looks like I have my work cut out for me, n stuff. Fairly soon I will hopefully be posting every 6h-12hr frame of every model run, and model trends (past 4-8 runs) of every 24 hour frame. I should be in the top 3 at least. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 1, 2021 Report Share Posted November 1, 2021 Beautiful evening. 4 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted November 1, 2021 Report Share Posted November 1, 2021 3 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said: Dang! 684? Looks like I have my work cut out for me, n stuff. Fairly soon I will hopefully be posting every 6h-12hr frame of every model run, and model trends (past 4-8 runs) of every 24 hour frame. I should be in the top 3 at least. 95% of your posts have maps, you have my full endorsement to post as much as you want for the 9/10 people on here who probably dont post at all and definitely dont have a sub anywhere. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 1, 2021 Report Share Posted November 1, 2021 3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: Beautiful evening. Quite windy here, and today it has a bit more bite to it, more brisk n stuff. Very enjoyable. Let's play a game. Post how many kids you've had trick or treating, and every time a new kid(s) does so you have to post the updated tally as well..... and GO! I'm at 1 kid so far in a Spider-Man costume. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 1, 2021 Report Share Posted November 1, 2021 2 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: Looking like first half of November is going to torch big time. I'm far from sure about that. The ensemble mean is below normal a good part of the time. At least that's the case for SEA. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 1, 2021 Report Share Posted November 1, 2021 1 minute ago, DJ Droppin said: Quite windy here, and today it has a bit more bite to it, more brisk n stuff. Very enjoyable. Let's play a game. Post how many kids you've had trick or treating, and every time a new kid(s) does so you have to post the updated tally as well..... and GO! I'm at 1 kid so far in a Spider-Man costume. We've had two groups so far for a total of about 10. Way more than last year for the entire evening. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubus Leucodermis Posted November 1, 2021 Report Share Posted November 1, 2021 Got up to 57°F today. Now 46°F. That’s 4 degrees cooler than yesterday at this time — and there was a freeze this morning. 1 Quote It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted November 1, 2021 Report Share Posted November 1, 2021 46 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said: are you getting paid by the post or something Lol tims not in the lead! 2 1 Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T-Town Posted November 1, 2021 Report Share Posted November 1, 2021 9 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: We've had two groups so far for a total of about 10. Way more than last year for the entire evening. This is our fifth halloween in this house and we are at zero trick or treaters all time. No sidewalks, no streetlights, almost no kids in the neighborhood. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T-Town Posted November 1, 2021 Report Share Posted November 1, 2021 Some sunset pics and also a ship. 4 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted November 1, 2021 Report Share Posted November 1, 2021 4 minutes ago, T-Town said: This is our fifth halloween in this house and we are at zero trick or treaters all time. No sidewalks, no streetlights, almost no kids in the neighborhood. Hardly ever get any trick or treaters in my neighborhood either. Haven’t been in Tacoma for Halloween the last 3 years but even before that usually don’t see any. 1 Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted November 1, 2021 Report Share Posted November 1, 2021 2 minutes ago, T-Town said: Some sunset pics and also a ship. Wow that shot of the ship looks really clear even with it zoomed in. I gotta upgrade my phone. 1 Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T-Town Posted November 1, 2021 Report Share Posted November 1, 2021 5 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said: Hardly ever get any trick or treaters in my neighborhood either. Haven’t been in Tacoma for Halloween the last 3 years but even before that usually don’t see any. Aren’t you in the Proctor area? That’s kind of surprising. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T-Town Posted November 1, 2021 Report Share Posted November 1, 2021 7 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said: Wow that shot of the ship looks really clear even with it zoomed in. I gotta upgrade my phone. Yeah the camera on this phone is really something. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted November 1, 2021 Report Share Posted November 1, 2021 31 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said: Quite windy here, and today it has a bit more bite to it, more brisk n stuff. Very enjoyable. Let's play a game. Post how many kids you've had trick or treating, and every time a new kid(s) does so you have to post the updated tally as well..... and GO! I'm at 1 kid so far in a Spider-Man costume. Zero here for the 2nd straight year. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Blob Posted November 1, 2021 Author Report Share Posted November 1, 2021 Really great night for trick or treating. And I'm not stuck at work because my car wants to vomit coolant. 4 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T-Town Posted November 1, 2021 Report Share Posted November 1, 2021 #willpower 2 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted November 1, 2021 Report Share Posted November 1, 2021 18 minutes ago, BLI snowman said: Zero here for the 2nd straight year. Virus fears seem as bad as last year, surprisingly. A few houses literally roped off their driveways with “no Halloween because of covid” signs. 1 1 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 1, 2021 Report Share Posted November 1, 2021 52 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said: Quite windy here, and today it has a bit more bite to it, more brisk n stuff. Very enjoyable. Let's play a game. Post how many kids you've had trick or treating, and every time a new kid(s) does so you have to post the updated tally as well..... and GO! I'm at 1 kid so far in a Spider-Man costume. 0. Every year. We go to silverton to trick or treat. It was a madhouse on snob hill. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 1, 2021 Report Share Posted November 1, 2021 2 minutes ago, Phil said: Virus fears seem as bad as last year, surprisingly. A few houses literally roped off their driveways with “no Halloween because of covid” signs. Haha wow. There were a few people wearing masks, but that was the worst of it. 6 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted November 1, 2021 Report Share Posted November 1, 2021 7 minutes ago, T-Town said: #willpower Diverse your portfolio! Get some gummy bears and Skittles! Side note.... Down to 30 pieces of candy left. Kids have been coming in huge groups in Kent. Easily had 100-150 kids already 1 1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 1, 2021 Report Share Posted November 1, 2021 5 minutes ago, Phil said: Virus fears seem as bad as last year, surprisingly. A few houses literally roped off their driveways with “no Halloween because of covid” signs. Wow that's just pathetically ridiculous. What a shame if anyone chooses to live in fear and paranoia. NOPE! 00z GFS in 37 minutes 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fircrest Posted November 1, 2021 Report Share Posted November 1, 2021 55 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said: Quite windy here, and today it has a bit more bite to it, more brisk n stuff. Very enjoyable. Let's play a game. Post how many kids you've had trick or treating, and every time a new kid(s) does so you have to post the updated tally as well..... and GO! I'm at 1 kid so far in a Spider-Man costume. Ok, reporting from Fircrest, we have had 45 show up so far. We have had as many as 100 kids on some Halloweens in the past. Popular area I guess. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted November 1, 2021 Report Share Posted November 1, 2021 Up to 5 now, mostly older kids who are on a mission. All good costumes/effort, which is nice. When I was 12/13 I basically put a mask on and that was it, one time I just put my ski goggles on. I’m not that old but man I would have really hated my teenage self 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 1, 2021 Report Share Posted November 1, 2021 We ended up with 1 kid. ONE! and after that little Spider-Man went around my cul-de-sac from house to house, 2 of my neighbors turned off their porch lights, so it's very dark now on my street and that's likely why no additional Goblins and Ghouls showed up! 00z ECMWF in 2 hours 44 minutes 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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