gusky Posted January 5, 2022 Report Share Posted January 5, 2022 Just now, MR.SNOWMIZER said: And this is where it's tricky. Depending on wind and precip rates if we can actually get snow falling then it will probably last longer than forecast says. Normally these events have snow falling longer. Yeah I know the HRRR isn't much of a measure here. NAM agrees but if the snow is heavier than predicted (which it definitely has been the past few weeks) then could be a little better. Models have done terribly with precip rates recently 1 Quote My Weather Station: https://ambientweather.net/dashboard/b415ff35b2d13f00c899051028f04466 Located in North Seattle, elevation ~150ft. Highest temperature ever recorded is 110.3, lowest is 14.5. My Twitter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted January 5, 2022 Report Share Posted January 5, 2022 Just now, MR.SNOWMIZER said: And this is where it's tricky. Depending on wind and precip rates if we can actually get snow falling then it will probably last longer than forecast says. Normally these events have snow falling longer. Agreed. Fairly significant boom and bust potential. If the cold air never quite makes it, the entire Sound may see nothing but 34-35 degree rain even up past Everett, but if it gets here enough to start as snow, we should stay snow till the Southerlies kick in which is often delayed an hour or two later than modeled. 2 Quote Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jakerepp Posted January 5, 2022 Report Share Posted January 5, 2022 Light rain/snow mix rolling through right now. 36.9 1 Quote Home Weather Station Stats for 2023 High - Satans Bunghole Lowest High - Not sure Low - I don't have the data Sub 40 highs - Not quite Sub-freezing highs - Try again Lows below 25 - You're joking Lows below 20 - No 2023 Snowfall - LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gusky Posted January 5, 2022 Report Share Posted January 5, 2022 1 minute ago, bainbridgekid said: Agreed. Fairly significant boom and bust potential. If the cold air never quite makes it, the entire Sound may see nothing but 34-35 degree rain even up past Everett, but if it gets here enough to start as snow, we should stay snow till the Southerlies kick in which is often delayed an hour or two later than modeled. A couple marginal events the past few days have been predicted as snow and they just came as rain. I definitely saw the bust potential the other night when Everett + North got snow but just rain in Seattle. Quote My Weather Station: https://ambientweather.net/dashboard/b415ff35b2d13f00c899051028f04466 Located in North Seattle, elevation ~150ft. Highest temperature ever recorded is 110.3, lowest is 14.5. My Twitter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted January 5, 2022 Report Share Posted January 5, 2022 8 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said: I'm going to loose my mind missing out on that storm in Eastern Washington. I could leave and I have workers here at my business but I have a hard time leaving and not feeling guilty. To get two storms there in a 96hr period that each dump 8 inches is rare there. We havent been able to get up to plow in between - so we will likely have 24-30" on our 3 mile long, somewhat steep driveway. Big problem with not being there for these events is that we will probably be walking in from the main road next time we go up. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gusky Posted January 5, 2022 Report Share Posted January 5, 2022 Seems to extend 2 inch mark slightly further south than the 4km 2 Quote My Weather Station: https://ambientweather.net/dashboard/b415ff35b2d13f00c899051028f04466 Located in North Seattle, elevation ~150ft. Highest temperature ever recorded is 110.3, lowest is 14.5. My Twitter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted January 5, 2022 Report Share Posted January 5, 2022 Been lightly drizzling all morning until now, light snow mixing in!! 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted January 5, 2022 Report Share Posted January 5, 2022 4 minutes ago, Tyler Mode said: Earlier it was looking strong for pdx, but now it’s shifted south some. Still quite a bit of spread on the models. The GFS takes it pretty far south and then the Canadian doesn't even develop a southern low. 12z UKMET looks like it would be the most favorable for a NW OR/SW WA blow. This is a fairly classic alignment, with a deepening low passing close from the WSW. These types of lows can sometimes tap into just enough jet energy to bomb out really quickly. 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phishy Wx Posted January 5, 2022 Report Share Posted January 5, 2022 29 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said: whered they post this? dont see this on their twitter or page got it off their homepage Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted January 5, 2022 Report Share Posted January 5, 2022 Full GEFS FWIW 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joelgombiner Posted January 5, 2022 Report Share Posted January 5, 2022 This is a different situation from Sunday. Today the gradients are mainly north-south instead of east-west, so the Cascades terrain issue shouldn't be a problem, and modeled cold air advection should be more accurate. 2 Quote Useful weather links Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted January 5, 2022 Report Share Posted January 5, 2022 6 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said: We havent been able to get up to plow in between - so we will likely have 24-30" on our 3 mile long, somewhat steep driveway. Big problem with not being there for these events is that we will probably be walking in from the main road next time we go up. No amount of snow can stop my d6. It will push 4 feet of wet snow in spring like nothing. Pretty crazy. The machine weighs 44k. I had to weld some grade 8 bolts to the tracks to act like cleats 8 Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post MR.SNOWMIZER Posted January 5, 2022 Popular Post Report Share Posted January 5, 2022 2 important things to watch now. 1 if Chris can switch to snow this is a good signal for the sound and watch for Aberdeen to switch, if they do we are golden. 2 if we can have snow develop over Puget sound it will probably stay snow longer than what the models show. 12 Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted January 5, 2022 Report Share Posted January 5, 2022 3 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said: No amount of snow can stop my d6. It will push 4 feet of wet snow in spring like nothing. Pretty crazy. The machine weighs 44k. I had to weld some grade 8 bolts to the tracks to act like cleats Our tractor isnt the best but it does fine since there are some tight spots/ledges on the road and we have a bunch of other 3pt attachments for it, but we cant keep it at the bottom of the driveway so we still have to go through the snow to get to it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jakerepp Posted January 5, 2022 Report Share Posted January 5, 2022 20220105_104011.mp4 3 2 Quote Home Weather Station Stats for 2023 High - Satans Bunghole Lowest High - Not sure Low - I don't have the data Sub 40 highs - Not quite Sub-freezing highs - Try again Lows below 25 - You're joking Lows below 20 - No 2023 Snowfall - LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gusky Posted January 5, 2022 Report Share Posted January 5, 2022 Snowed for @jakereppat the same temp so this could bring snow to N Seattle Quote My Weather Station: https://ambientweather.net/dashboard/b415ff35b2d13f00c899051028f04466 Located in North Seattle, elevation ~150ft. Highest temperature ever recorded is 110.3, lowest is 14.5. My Twitter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jakerepp Posted January 5, 2022 Report Share Posted January 5, 2022 Just now, gusky said: Snowed for @jakereppat the same temp so this could bring snow to N Seattle 36.5 IMBY Quote Home Weather Station Stats for 2023 High - Satans Bunghole Lowest High - Not sure Low - I don't have the data Sub 40 highs - Not quite Sub-freezing highs - Try again Lows below 25 - You're joking Lows below 20 - No 2023 Snowfall - LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gusky Posted January 5, 2022 Report Share Posted January 5, 2022 Just now, jakerepp said: 36.5 IMBY Just went up to 37.2 IMFY now, was 36.9. Might be too warm Quote My Weather Station: https://ambientweather.net/dashboard/b415ff35b2d13f00c899051028f04466 Located in North Seattle, elevation ~150ft. Highest temperature ever recorded is 110.3, lowest is 14.5. My Twitter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 5, 2022 Report Share Posted January 5, 2022 1 hour ago, RentonHillTC said: In my experience, raccoons love dry cat food! Just cloudy and 36° here. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted January 5, 2022 Report Share Posted January 5, 2022 High-Res WRF through 1 AM. Snows more after this in Whatcom County. 3 Quote Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cascadia_Wx Posted January 5, 2022 Report Share Posted January 5, 2022 Euro still looking not great for inversion potential next week compared to the GFS, wants to drag a weak system through and mix us out Tues/Weds Quote Summer grows while Winter goes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post MR.SNOWMIZER Posted January 5, 2022 Popular Post Report Share Posted January 5, 2022 8 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said: Our tractor isnt the best but it does fine since there are some tight spots/ledges on the road and we have a bunch of other 3pt attachments for it, but we cant keep it at the bottom of the driveway so we still have to go through the snow to get to it. When we got to our gate it's a 1 mile drive to the top of property to the dozer, I hadn't been there to plow at all so the road had 16 inches on it. I dropped the air in my tires to 15, locked the rear diff locker and punched it. My ram TRX made it to the top! Parts of the drive are a 14% grade lol. STEEP. This truck has 700hp so it has massive wheels speed to just claw your way up, it was fun. 10 1 1 Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jakerepp Posted January 5, 2022 Report Share Posted January 5, 2022 Just now, MR.SNOWMIZER said: When we got to our gate it's a 1 mile drive to the top of property to the dozer, I hadn't been there to plow at all so the road had 16 inches on it. I dropped the air in my tires to 15, locked the rear diff locker and punched it. My ram TRX made it to the top! Parts of the drive are a 14% grade lol. STEEP. This truck has 700hp so it has massive wheels speed to just claw your way up, it was fun. Woah, you have a TRX? 2 Quote Home Weather Station Stats for 2023 High - Satans Bunghole Lowest High - Not sure Low - I don't have the data Sub 40 highs - Not quite Sub-freezing highs - Try again Lows below 25 - You're joking Lows below 20 - No 2023 Snowfall - LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gusky Posted January 5, 2022 Report Share Posted January 5, 2022 1 minute ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said: When we got to our gate it's a 1 mile drive to the top of property to the dozer, I hadn't been there to plow at all so the road had 16 inches on it. I dropped the air in my tires to 15, locked the rear diff locker and punched it. My ram TRX made it to the top! Parts of the drive are a 14% grade lol. STEEP. This truck has 700hp so it has massive wheels speed to just claw your way up, it was fun. That is my favorite pickup by far. Literally one of my dream cars. Looks so good in the snow!!! 2 Quote My Weather Station: https://ambientweather.net/dashboard/b415ff35b2d13f00c899051028f04466 Located in North Seattle, elevation ~150ft. Highest temperature ever recorded is 110.3, lowest is 14.5. My Twitter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
runninthruda206 Posted January 5, 2022 Report Share Posted January 5, 2022 2 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said: When we got to our gate it's a 1 mile drive to the top of property to the dozer, I hadn't been there to plow at all so the road had 16 inches on it. I dropped the air in my tires to 15, locked the rear diff locker and punched it. My ram TRX made it to the top! Parts of the drive are a 14% grade lol. STEEP. This truck has 700hp so it has massive wheels speed to just claw your way up, it was fun. that truck is sexy as hell 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted January 5, 2022 Report Share Posted January 5, 2022 @Phil Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 5, 2022 Report Share Posted January 5, 2022 22 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said: Full GEFS FWIW Uninspiring. Could be worse. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TeacherLori Posted January 5, 2022 Report Share Posted January 5, 2022 Hey! It's snowing in Lynnwood!! 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gusky Posted January 5, 2022 Report Share Posted January 5, 2022 Seems to be building into something more substantial. Quote My Weather Station: https://ambientweather.net/dashboard/b415ff35b2d13f00c899051028f04466 Located in North Seattle, elevation ~150ft. Highest temperature ever recorded is 110.3, lowest is 14.5. My Twitter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted January 5, 2022 Report Share Posted January 5, 2022 5 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: Uninspiring. Could be worse. not bad enough to make me take a break from checking each run, unfortunately for my work. 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted January 5, 2022 Report Share Posted January 5, 2022 11 AM 925s 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted January 5, 2022 Report Share Posted January 5, 2022 37 here at home…just some light drizzle for now. I think I’m going to be the next person on the forum with covid…my friend down in texas has it now came down with it the day after a left and I’m feeling sick this morning too. 6 Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
seattleweatherguy Posted January 5, 2022 Report Share Posted January 5, 2022 38 here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jakerepp Posted January 5, 2022 Report Share Posted January 5, 2022 Looks like this echo is strengthening right around me. 1 Quote Home Weather Station Stats for 2023 High - Satans Bunghole Lowest High - Not sure Low - I don't have the data Sub 40 highs - Not quite Sub-freezing highs - Try again Lows below 25 - You're joking Lows below 20 - No 2023 Snowfall - LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted January 5, 2022 Report Share Posted January 5, 2022 1 hour ago, Esquimalt said: How is it that the wrf and the gfs show me getting 8-10 inches and the RGEM and euro show me getting 3 lol? I’ve never had a situation where within 12 hours of the event theres been that much variation Gfs and it’s WRF love cranking the outflow and overdoing strait enhancement in the outflow. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted January 5, 2022 Report Share Posted January 5, 2022 Too warm to stick but it’s snowing pretty good here at school in Mountlake Terrace. 500 feet. 3 1 Quote Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KingstonWX Posted January 5, 2022 Report Share Posted January 5, 2022 36 and raining here. The North Kitsap School District cancelled classes today. Apparently there are areas of snow and ice around here, but I have no clue where. My accumulated snow is long gone at my house, and we have missed just about every round of excitement here for the last several days. I have a hard time thinking we'll get anything other than rain today, but I guess we'll see. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FroYoBro Posted January 5, 2022 Report Share Posted January 5, 2022 Really pouring out there now and down to 42 degrees here. It’s been a very chilly and wet past 6 weeks for this dog walker. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted January 5, 2022 Report Share Posted January 5, 2022 Some great news.... Lake Oroville's water table is about a week away from reaching 100' above its minimum back in early fall. It bottomed out at 628.47' back on October 1st. As of 9am today, it's all the way back up to 719.72' A recovery of more than 90', about 78% of normal, and around 22' higher than this time last year. What an amazing turnaround for that parched region. And despite being lower than some of the previous years, the rate at which it is rising is much higher than anything they've seen over the last half decade at this point in the season. Notice how 2020 is much higher at this point now, but the water table barely moves over the rest of the season. What is being shown this year is a region in remission from a terrible drought. Hard to be negative about this outlook. After a weak storm passes through this Friday, California will enter an extended period of drier, warmer weather (modern Niña climo w/ expanded Hadley cell and constricted N/S gradient.) However unlike the previous couple years, this won't cause any major issues, since the snowpack remains at over 140% of normal (!), the highest since the legendary 2011 season. And even in the lowlands, the rains have been plentiful. During the month of December, San Francisco received 7.84" of rain, and downtown LA a confounding 9.46"! For some context, KSEA accrued itself a handy 4.08". The only trouble spots remaining are over extreme northern California and southern Oregon, where the extended presence of jet suppression proved to be too much of a good thing, as much of the precipitation was shunted to the south. For instance, Eureka, which sits right at the base of the coast range and benefits greatly from terrain uplift, received 7.25" of precipitation this past month. A respectable amount, but ultimately more than an inch below the December normal, and 0.59" less than San Francisco a few hundred miles closer to the Equator. Later this January and into the late winter, and eventually further into spring, as the poleward temperature gradient relaxes alongside the jet stream, more rain and snow will return to the Sierra range. On top of that, the significant snowpack currently in place (alongside future snows) will provide a much-needed, and recently much-missed, source of water for its parched ecosystem(s). 7 Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow drift Posted January 5, 2022 Report Share Posted January 5, 2022 51 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said: I'm going to loose my mind missing out on that storm in Eastern Washington. I could leave and I have workers here at my business but I have a hard time leaving and not feeling guilty. To get two storms there in a 96hr period that each dump 8 inches is rare there. The storm last night way overachieved. The NWS Spokane didn't issue an advisory until 3:45 am. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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