PNW January 2022, Contact Info for Phil

[Cascadia_Wx]

5 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Honestly, I don’t understand why anyone would be that upset over the ridging. People want more AR’s?

The ridging is fine for now getting a nice low level cold pattern out of it and some sunshine but it would be nice if it could break down in mid Feb and we could get a cool and wet spring for once otherwise we will be looking at big time drought and fire concerns once again this summer 

[Timmy Supercell]

16 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Honestly, I don’t understand why anyone would be that upset over the ridging. People want more AR’s?

The types that do 55 and rain are nice.

[snow_wizard]

Running the numbers it's been far from a terrible January here.  Through yesterday:

Average - 38.9 (normal for month 40.0)

Extreme min - 16

Freezing lows - 15

Days with 1" or more snow depth - 5

Not a great month but ok by recent January standards.  The recent inversion has brought some pretty reasonable numbers with a one week average of 35.2, and a streak of 9 freezing low temps.

[snow_wizard]

Going forward things look pretty promising to me.  A fairly decent trough for the first part of the coming week with 850s dropping to around -8 with northerly surface gradients and a decent chance of an amplifying GOA ridge as the month progresses.  FWIW many of the instances I can think of where the NE got hit hard in a Nina winter the ball shifts back to our court shortly thereafter.  A couple of prime examples are January 1996 and the winter of 2010-11.  I would be willing to place a small wager February will end up below normal.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

28 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

The ridging is fine for now getting a nice low level cold pattern out of it and some sunshine but it would be nice if it could break down in mid Feb and we could get a cool and wet spring for once otherwise we will be looking at big time drought and fire concerns once again this summer 

My money is on the ridge breaking down by the end of next month.

[snow_wizard]

36 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Honestly, I don’t understand why anyone would be that upset over the ridging. People want more AR’s?

Right now we want the ridging.  The stronger it remains the more likely we get a good high amp retrogression sequence.  My money is on ethe more amplified GFS suite of models right now.  The deamplification of the ECMWF suite doesn't make a whole lot of sense in this context.

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

My money is on the ridge breaking down by the end of next month.

I think a discontinuous retrogression.  Eventually it will move far enough west to give us something like late Dec / early Jan again.

[ShawniganLake]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

Right now we want the ridging.  The stronger it remains the more likely we get a good high amp retrogression sequence.  My money is on ethe more amplified GFS suite of models right now.  The deamplification of the ECMWF suite doesn't make a whole lot of sense in this context.

Why doesn’t it make sense?

[Rubus Leucodermis]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

Right now we want the ridging.  The stronger it remains the more likely we get a good high amp retrogression sequence.  My money is on ethe more amplified GFS suite of models right now.  The deamplification of the ECMWF suite doesn't make a whole lot of sense in this context.

Wouldn’t mind that, but for now I am enjoying the ridgy pattern. Southern BC was ground zero for so many AR’s from October through December that I got very sick of them.

[snow_wizard]

10 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

Why doesn’t it make sense?

Sustained amplified riding in the West would normally retrograde to the GOA and amplify in a Nina winter.  Another example is Jan / early Feb 1985.  If the deamplification does happen it could be brief with a ridge rebuilding further west, but right now that seems less likely than the more straight forward retrogression.

[snow_wizard]

4 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Wouldn’t mind that, but for now I am enjoying the ridgy pattern. Southern BC was ground zero for so many AR’s from October through December that I got very sick of them.

For sure.  We needed a break.  This winter has really been dynamic for major / sustained pattern changes.

[Anti Marine Layer]

ARs are good to end fire danger, until a few months later after all the new fuel they spawn up.

[snow_wizard]

3 minutes ago, Mr Marine Layer said:

ARs are good for fire danger, until a few months later after all the new fuel they spawn up.

That's not such an issue up here, because all winters are pretty wet...with a few exceptions.

[snow_wizard]

The CFS seems to on the scent of something later in February.  Using 1970-71 as a guide we could see something pretty good before it's all over.  That winter had an exceptional cold / snow event late Feb / early March.  Hopefully we can pull it off a tad earlier this time.

[Timmy Supercell]

January 29, 2019 was the first of a 3-day stretch of highs in the mid-50's in Klamath Falls.

And you wouldn't believe what happened next! 

[AlTahoe]

Heavenly lived up to its name today!

If we're gonna get endless ridging better enjoy it. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

13 minutes ago, Mr Marine Layer said:

ARs are good to end fire danger, until a few months later after all the new fuel they spawn up.

Maybe in LA county up here we usually get them in late fall/early winter transitioning to the cold season so things are dormant anyway 

The ARs October through December here were probably good for recharging soil moisture and aquifers 

[ShawniganLake]

I’m assuming those 60mph wind gusts have removed Phil’s hotel from the map by now.  Sort of disappointed we didn’t get any actual updates from his position 

[TacomaWaWx]

3 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

I’m assuming those 60mph wind gusts have removed Phil’s hotel from the map by now.  Sort of disappointed we didn’t get any actual updates from his position 

Probably has no cell service or power. Might be a day or two before we hear from him. 

[Joshua Lake Oswego]

1 hour ago, BLI snowman said:

December was both a cooler and wetter than average month for NW OR....

I’m not talking about a specific short period of time. In general. Of course there will be days, weeks, or months that are wetter and/or cooler than normal. 

[TacomaWaWx]

Back at home it’s 48…pretty nice day. High clouds are slowly increasing. 

[TT-SEA]

52 in North Bend... the 12th day of 50+ there this month.

 

[BLI snowman]

4 minutes ago, Joshua Lake Oswego said:

I’m not talking about a specific short period of time. In general. Of course there will be days, weeks, or months that are wetter and/or cooler than normal. 

Hmm, Downtown Portland finished 2021 with 45" of precip. Slightly above their long term average of 43".

2018-2020 were drier than average years after 2014-17 had all been wet. Seems like it's been pretty balanced to me....

[ShawniganLake]

7 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

52 in North Bend... the 12th day of 50+ there this month.

 

Looks like this will be the first 50 less January at Shawnigan Lake since 2008. 

[Joshua Lake Oswego]

6 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Hmm, Downtown Portland finished 2021 with 45" of precip. Slightly above their long term average of 43".

2018-2020 were drier than average years after 2014-17 had all been wet. Seems like it's been pretty balanced to me....

Why cherry pick downtown Portland? PDX is the official reporting station. Below normal precipitation 4 consecutive years and above average temps 3 out of the last 4. 

I also said Portland south. So, check out Salem and Eugene to further prove my point. 

[Front Ranger]

33 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The CFS seems to on the scent of something later in February.  Using 1970-71 as a guide we could see something pretty good before it's all over.  That winter had an exceptional cold / snow event late Feb / early March.  Hopefully we can pull it off a tad earlier this time.

It's interesting, 1970-71 hasn't been bad as a guide, except December was easily better this winter, and January was way better that winter. Maybe February/March can split the difference and be an exact 1971 redux.

[Front Ranger]

26 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

I’m assuming those 60mph wind gusts have removed Phil’s hotel from the map by now.  Sort of disappointed we didn’t get any actual updates from his position 

From this point forward, that place shall no longer be known as Pilgrim Sands, but instead Phil's Last Stand.

[TT-SEA]

18 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

Looks like this will be the first 50 less January at Shawnigan Lake since 2008. 

Little taste of spring here today...

[BLI snowman]

19 minutes ago, Joshua Lake Oswego said:

Why cherry pick downtown Portland? PDX is the official reporting station. Below normal precipitation 4 consecutive years and above average temps 3 out of the last 4. 

I also said Portland south. So, check out Salem and Eugene to further prove my point. 

Downtown Portland has a 70 year longer POR than PDX. 

PDX came in just an inch below average in 2021, which was a slight outlier for the area. Salem finished 2021 slightly wetter than average.

There isn't some magical force field preventing NW OR from getting wet conditions. In spite of your goalpost shifting here and your relative silence during the four consecutive months that were just wetter than average there from Sept-Dec.

 

[TacomaWaWx]

31 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

52 in North Bend... the 12th day of 50+ there this month.

 

We’ve only had 10 +50 highs this entire winter. Maybe #11 today. In the last 15 years…the most +50 days we’ve had in one winter was in 2014-2015 (no surprise there) with 55 +50 days. Lowest year was 2016-2017…with just 11. Our average since 2005 is 25 per winter. 

[Dave]

[Joshua Lake Oswego]

21 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Downtown Portland has a 70 year longer POR than PDX. 

PDX came in just an inch below average in 2021, which was a slight outlier for the area. Salem finished 2021 slightly wetter than average.

There isn't some magical force field preventing NW OR from getting wet conditions. In spite of your goalpost shifting here and your relative silence during the four consecutive months that were just wetter than average there from Sept-Dec.

 

The gradient is very real. I have posted stats before. Don’t feel like doing it again.

I just want to get back to some freakin’ rain. I have seen way too much sun in the past couple of weeks for a PNW winter. It’s gross. It’s making me grumpy. 

[MossMan]

2 minutes ago, Dave said:

Yeah Phil is really dropping the ball here. I don’t care if power and cell service is down, he should have thought ahead and bought a satellite phone or something. 
Very disappointing. 

[NWbyNW]

7 minutes ago, Joshua Lake Oswego said:

I just want to get back to some freakin’ rain. I have seen way too much sun in the past couple of weeks for a PNW winter. It’s gross. It’s making me grumpy. 

Amen.  I live in the northwest because I like rain.  There has been a large lack of rain lately.  

If I could live in the southeast of Alaska during the summer to get continual rain, and move back to the PNW in winter for rain, life would be near perfect.  

Hope everyone is having a nice day.

[FroYoBro]

Still no D pic from Phony Phil huh? WEIRD. 

[Timmy Supercell]

1 minute ago, MossMan said:

Yeah Phil is really dropping the ball here. I don’t care if power and cell service is down, he should have thought ahead and bought a satellite phone or something. 
Very disappointing. 

Possibly still getting footage or if there's damage around him, just trying to survive.

I still only prefer to use computers for social media. I've had an android since 2019 but just use it to call or text someone. 
He'll be back later this evening. I did the same during a few of my epic t'storm events and kept people waiting

[TT-SEA]

5 minutes ago, NWbyNW said:

Amen.  I live in the northwest because I like rain.  There has been a large lack of rain lately.  

If I could live in the southeast of Alaska during the summer to get continual rain, and move back to the PNW in winter for rain, life would be near perfect.  

Hope everyone is having a nice day.

But there are 215 days per year on average when it does not rain in Seattle.     Seems like a problem if you want it to rain every day.  

[TT-SEA]

Even during the true rainy season of November - March... Seattle averages 63 dry days in that 150 day period.    That is 42% of the days being dry even during the rainiest time of the year.  

SEA had rain on 55 out of 61 days in November and December... and 14 days in January (will end up with 16).

So SEA will be at 71 days with rain since November 1st which is well above normal in terms of days with rain.   In addition to being +5.68 inches for the water year.    About as good as it gets here for rain lovers.

In other words... a drier pattern was almost inevitable based on climo just to start balancing out the very wet period.  

 

 

 

[Chewbacca Defense]

25 minutes ago, Dave said:

Fixed it for you

 

 

[snow_wizard]

The 18z GFS looks like it's going places.  A series of waves riding up over the ridge keep it pumped up and slowly move it westward.