PNW January 2022, Contact Info for Phil

[Gradient Keeper]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

Teleconnection forecasts on the latest GEFS are excellent.  EPO and PNA both tanking nicely.

Encouraging.

12z ECMWF in 10 hours 59 minutes

[Chewbacca Defense]

1 hour ago, Fircrest said:

Speaking of movies, we just finished The Aeronauts on Prime Video.  Pretty entertaining and actually has quite a bit of meteorology in it.

I'll have to check it out, just got done with Ozark.....that was one twisted show.....and I am trying to find something a little lighter. 

[snow_wizard]

When you think about it retrogressions are totally counterintuitive with the prevailing westerly flow at the mid latitudes of the northern hemisphere, and yet they happen pretty frequently in the winter.

[Chewbacca Defense]

LOL!!  While looking for Aeronauts and came across "the Hungover Games."  Considering spoof movies like Blazing Saddles and Spaceballs are among my favorites, I might have to give that one a watch.  Has anyone here watched it?

[Gradient Keeper]

Take the Fast-n-Furious movies. You know what you're going to get with all of them, predictable, but The Rock is even awful in movies he is suitable for. LOL Anyhow

00z GFS in 20 hours 44 minutes

[Gradient Keeper]

Just now, Chewbacca Defense said:

LOL!!  While looking for Aeronauts and came across "the Hungover Games."  Considering spoof movies like Blazing Saddles and Spaceballs are among my favorites, I might have to give that one a watch.  Has anyone here watched it?

Blazing Saddles is a classic as is Spaceballs. Lately I've been watching movies like Tombstone, Magnificent 7

12z NAM in 6 hours 42 minutes

[GHweatherChris]

2 minutes ago, Chewbacca Defense said:

LOL!!  While looking for Aeronauts and came across "the Hungover Games."  Considering spoof movies like Blazing Saddles and Spaceballs are among my favorites, I might have to give that one a watch.  Has anyone here watched it?

It's bad enough to be funny, I enjoyed it drinking beer!!

[Gradient Keeper]

If you think about how active December was it's kind of crazy how the tap shut off quickly around January 6th with a few shots of rain after. It happens though. I've still managed 6.56" of rain so far for the month.

[Gradient Keeper]

Supertroopers?

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

11 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

Take the Fast-n-Furious movies. You know what you're going to get with all of them, predictable, but The Rock is even awful in movies he is suitable for. LOL Anyhow

00z GFS in 20 hours 44 minutes

Being a car guy I can't stomach those movies, so fake it's not fun for me to watch. Nicholas cage is also a horrible actor but I like his movies still. 

[Slushy Inch]

Euro is stuck, but I'm guessing there is nothing exciting. Here in the Washington lowlands, we are 6 years due for once in a decade windstorm.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

3:10 to Yuma and Cinderella man. 2 great movies. 

[Gradient Keeper]

EURO just finished and it's trying to go places folks!

[TacomaWaWx]

We’re getting some light rain but probably won’t be enough to be measurable before midnight. 

[Slushy Inch]

3 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

EURO just finished and it's trying to go places folks!

Sort of.

[TacomaWaWx]

Euro still likes the idea of some people north of Everett getting some snow. Also a decent mountain snow pattern. 

[Loniu7]

52 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Really odd that people are calling Roadhouse a horrible movie.  It's actually quite popular and highly rated.

It's the best terrible b movie  for Swayze, along with Point Break lol

[ShawniganLake]

54 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I'm telling you guys what just happened on the East Coast bodes well for us.  When that happens with a Nina it's our turn next.  The extreme amplification over the GOA being shown on the GFS is probably onto something.

Hopefully the GFS isn’t way off again.  I’ll wait for some confirmation from the higher scoring models like the EPS and GEPS.  A couple weeks back The GFS was pretty bullish on things getting cold right about now. R

[Gradient Keeper]

00z ECMWF full run (Day 1-10) wait for it.... wait for it....

 

[Gradient Keeper]

00z ECMWF 10 Day Rainfall, Snowfall totals.... Welcome back, La Nina

[Slushy Inch]

3 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

00z ECMWF full run (Day 1-10) wait for it.... wait for it....

 

I guess I'll be more interested in the EPS tonight.

[Gradient Keeper]

The Other Guys

[Gradient Keeper]

1 minute ago, 12345WeatherNerd said:

I guess I'll be more interested in the EPS tonight.

Same here.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

9 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

Same here.

Last part of EPS

 

[Gradient Keeper]

1 minute ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

Last part of EPS

 

Not the worst I've seen. It's trying.

[snow_wizard]

Models look to be in good agreement on a very deep trough over the NW Pacific by Feb 10 or so.  From there things should fall into place for a nice trough over the NW.

[snow_wizard]

With a solid cold trough in early Feb and a possible cold wave by mid month we COULD be looking at a chilly month.

[snow_wizard]

Amazing.  I was just looking at the temperature ranks for the Puget Sound Lowlands for Nov - Jan and 1939-40 still stands as the warmest on record at least since 1895 for that three month period.  As has been pointed out before that late 1937 through 1942 period was at least as bad as anything seen recently.

[GHweatherChris]

1 hour ago, DJ Droppin said:

Supertroopers?

Hell yes!! Sequel is good too!!

[TigerWoodsLibido]

32F and clear. Freeze #18 for Springfield. Very pleasant night.

[Meatyorologist]

11 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

32F and clear. Freeze #18 for Springfield. Very pleasant night.

Wow...an actually normal amount for this point in the season.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

2 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Wow...an actually normal amount for this point in the season.

Was nice to catch back up. We should be good for more cooler than average months this year. Hopefully fewer fires.

[Gradient Keeper]

The cooler than average Summer ahead is going to be nice, refreshing.

[Meatyorologist]

37 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Was nice to catch back up. We should be good for more cooler than average months this year. Hopefully fewer fires.

After March it will be tenuous to stay cool. Hopefully it actually rains this spring...looking at you, April...

[Meatyorologist]

I've heard musings before that a wet spring followed by a dry summer is the worst outcome because of excess burn material...but ultimately bad fire seasons are contingent on summer weather. A cooler summer will always keep relative fire risk lower, no matter the antecedent plant conditions. Of course all it takes is one bad fire weather pattern (a la Sept 2020) to burn a city to the ground, but on the whole the risk is limited if it stays cool.

I can't tell if we are legitimately due for a "cool summer" or if the trendline is rising so fast it's noticeably changing on 2-5 year increments.... Given how starkly the last decade of hot summers sticks out from even the AGW trendline, I'd imagine it's a healthy mix of both truths. Summers like 2015 and 2021 will become increasingly common, and summers will continue to warm as we've seen them do already, but other parts of the country have seen distinctly cool summer months in the 2012-2021 timeframe; albeit at a much lowered frequency, but they've happened nonetheless. In my opinion the PNW really is due for a notably chilly summer, but it will likely be an isolated event, perhaps only covering a large portion of the season, and will promptly be followed by more torching the following year. And to note... I have no idea when or if this would occur. It could be this upcoming season, or in 2033. I don't know.

[Clancy MT DW9972]

9 hours ago, MossMan said:

 

"I thought you would be bigger."

[The Blob]

Beautiful sunrise

[SilverFallsAndrew]

CFS was lordly for the end of the month. 

[Blizzard777]

9 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

I'm telling you guys what just happened on the East Coast bodes well for us.  When that happens with a Nina it's our turn next.  The extreme amplification over the GOA being shown on the GFS is probably onto something.

I agree and I’m ready for my second portion of winter!  February will not fail us 🌨

41*

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Did Phil post any cool pics from yesterday?