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January 2017 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

Warning shots no more!
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#51
dolt

Posted 01 January 2017 - 01:23 AM

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hmmmm... Mr. Dolt, Eugene reporting flurries!!!

I can report that that report was incorrect, at least at my location.

 

Instead of ushering in the new year with 33 degree rain, we are blessed with 32 degree rain.  Negative on the windshield splat test as well (not that my buzzed a** is driving though).  Yay!



#52
hawkstwelve

Posted 01 January 2017 - 01:27 AM

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FWIW, latest HRRR shows SW WA/OR being the relative winners for snow through hr 13.

Attached Files



#53
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 01 January 2017 - 01:28 AM

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I set my expectations a few days ago for this event at about 1-2". It looks like it will over perform those expectations here. My positive post for the night :)


Snowfall

2016-17: 47.2"

2015-16: 11.75"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"

 

 

 


#54
TT-SEA

Posted 01 January 2017 - 01:29 AM

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Just shoveled us out while waiting for parents to come pick up their kids... saw stars but now snowing again.

#55
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 01 January 2017 - 01:30 AM

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FWIW, latest HRRR shows SW WA/OR being the relative winners for snow through hr 13.

 

Show's about 3-4" here...Given what I already have I could end up with 4"+, that would be way more than I was expecting...


Snowfall

2016-17: 47.2"

2015-16: 11.75"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"

 

 

 


#56
MR.SNOWMIZER

Posted 01 January 2017 - 01:34 AM

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There is still hope for us. If an actual arctic front slides through the sound the atmosphere is juiced and it will wring out all the juice giving us an inch.

You will feel the front pass. It will be a dangerous situation.

#57
hawkstwelve

Posted 01 January 2017 - 01:35 AM

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CenturyLink Field.

Attached Files


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#58
TT-SEA

Posted 01 January 2017 - 01:36 AM

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Snowing in Bellevue per traffic cams.



#59
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 01 January 2017 - 01:37 AM

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I can report that that report was incorrect, at least at my location.

 

Instead of ushering in the new year with 33 degree rain, we are blessed with 32 degree rain.  Negative on the windshield splat test as well (not that my buzzed a** is driving though).  Yay!

 

At least you got hammered, that qualifies as a successful new years eve right? I am still up watching the snow, 2" and a big shower just about to hit. The fiancee and my buddy have since retired for the evening... I guess I am the only one obsessed enough to keep pushing on!


Snowfall

2016-17: 47.2"

2015-16: 11.75"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"

 

 

 


#60
nwsnow

Posted 01 January 2017 - 01:37 AM

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Unlikely anything accumulates beyond a dusting below about 200', but areas above that should mostly see some ground covering at some point. Some folks, especially those further north or near the Cascade foothills, could see up to 3".

 

Just drove from Tigard to Hillsboro through Beaverton. Was surprised to see widespread frozen road surfaces and some very light snow/ice accumulations from Beaverton to Hillsboro. Saw some clear freezing rain accumulation too that is still frozen here. 

 

Currently 31F with nothing falling. I think we have done better than I expected temp wise the whole day despite the onslaught of the south winds. 

If we could get the mid levels to cool a bit more here, everything should accumulate easily now that the surfaces are frozen here. 

 

 

Given that the models clearly have no idea what is going to happen next week and the trends have made me a bit nervous, I think I'm going to try to enjoy this current event as much as possible. 



#61
TT-SEA

Posted 01 January 2017 - 01:40 AM

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C-zone strengthening over I-90 corridor..


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#62
dolt

Posted 01 January 2017 - 01:41 AM

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At least you got hammered, that qualifies as a successful new years eve right? I am still up watching the snow, 2" and a big shower just about to hit. The fiancee and my buddy have since retired for the evening... I guess I am the only one obsessed enough to keep pushing on!

The huskies also got hammered, which is a nice way to start the new year.  At least they had a successful season.  "Peach bowl runner up". 



#63
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 01 January 2017 - 01:41 AM

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Just drove from Tigard to Hillsboro through Beaverton. Was surprised to see widespread frozen road surfaces and some very light snow/ice accumulations from Beaverton to Hillsboro. Saw some clear freezing rain accumulation too that is still frozen here. 

 

Currently 31F with nothing falling. I think we have done better than I expected temp wise the whole day despite the onslaught of the south winds. 

If we could get the mid levels to cool a bit more here, everything should accumulate easily now that the surfaces are frozen here. 

 

 

Given that the models clearly have no idea what is going to happen next week and the trends have made me a bit nervous, I think I'm going to try to enjoy this current event as much as possible. 

 

HIO was 31 at 1am. 


Snowfall

2016-17: 47.2"

2015-16: 11.75"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"

 

 

 


#64
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 01 January 2017 - 01:42 AM

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The huskies also got hammered, which is a nice way to start the new year.  At least they had a successful season.  "Peach bowl runner up". 

 

That was nice. A Clemson vs. Bama rematch is kind of lame though. I could literally care less about that. I hope Coach Taggart turns things around. Great sweep of the LA schools by the basketball team this weekend though!


Snowfall

2016-17: 47.2"

2015-16: 11.75"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"

 

 

 


#65
TT-SEA

Posted 01 January 2017 - 01:43 AM

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The huskies also got hammered, which is a nice way to start the new year.  At least they had a successful season.  "Peach bowl runner up". 

 

 

They hung pretty good with this years version of the Crimson Tide which some say is the best college football team ever assembled.    A couple bounces their way and it would have been even closer.   They did much better than Ohio State!  


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#66
nwsnow

Posted 01 January 2017 - 01:44 AM

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HIO was 31 at 1am. 

 

I wonder what the 925mb temps are right now, the precip isn't all snow even though the surface temps are around freezing. That cold air advection needs to happen now!



#67
Kayla

Posted 01 January 2017 - 01:45 AM

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Nice to see a GFS run trend on the cooler side so far for once...


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#68
nwsnow

Posted 01 January 2017 - 01:45 AM

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06z GFS still looks fairly aggressive for tonight and tomorrow:

 

sn10_acc.us_nw.png



#69
TT-SEA

Posted 01 January 2017 - 01:45 AM

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Snow is really coming down hard again... guessing about 4 inches so far based on what I shoveled.



#70
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 01 January 2017 - 01:46 AM

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Nice to see a GFS run trend on the cooler side so far for once...

 

I was going to mention that...Very slightly, but a bit cooler through the next couple days at least. 


Snowfall

2016-17: 47.2"

2015-16: 11.75"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"

 

 

 


#71
Timmy_Supercell

Posted 01 January 2017 - 01:46 AM

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Haha, this is entertaining. Thunder? With these highs? That would be a first. Did accuweather hack them?

 

ddj2wo.jpg


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Weather Data for Klamath Falls, OR

------------------------------------------------------------

(Personal Winter Totals since 2010)

'10-'11 = 58.20" (161% of normal)

'11-'12 = 49.00" (136% of normal)

'12-'13 = 16.70" (46% of normal)

'13-'14 = 9.05" (25% of normal)

'14-'15 = 2.85" (8% of normal)

'15-'16 = 54.45" (151% of normal)

'16-'17 = 63.00" (175% of normal)

 

Nov '16: 1.20" (30% of normal)

Dec '16: 11.10" (123% of normal)

Jan '17: 29.50" (246% of normal)

Feb '17: 12.90" (161% of normal)

Mar '17: 5.60" (224% of normal)

Apr '17: 2.70"

 

Nov '15: 4.00" (100% of normal) (Avg: 4.00")

Dec '15: 33.10" (367% of normal) (Avg: 9.00")

Jan '16: 10.75" (90% of normal) (Avg: 12.00")

Feb '16: 3.50" (43% of normal) (Avg: 8.00")

Mar '16: 3.10" (124% of normal) (Avg: 2.50")

Apr '16: T

 

OTHER WEATHER DATA

-------------------------------------------------------------

*Max 1 Day Snowfall: 12.40" (01/03/2017)*

*Max Snow Depth: 21.00" (01/07/2017)*, 18.00" (12/24/2015)

Max High (F): 101 (07/02/2013), 99 (07/02/2015)

Min High (F): 6 (12/08/2013), 7 (01/06/2017), 8 (01/05/2017)

Max Low (F): 63 (07/04/2015)

Min Low (F): -20 (12/08/2013), -19 (01/06/2017), -17 (01/05/2017)

Max Wind Gusts:

58-60 (10/15/2016), 60-65 (10/26/2016) ( 55+ MPH (09/12/2016), 67 MPH (01/19/2016), 65 MPH (02/06/2015), 63 MPH (02/05/2015), 62 MPH (02/17/2016),

56 MPH (02/08/2015), 55 MPH (12/03/2015), 58 MPH (10/25/2014), 55 MPH (12/30/2011), 58 MPH (09/04/2011), 54 MPH (03/13/2011), 58 MPH (02/15/2011), 60+ (02/14/2011)

T'storm Days: 8 (2017), 12 (2016), 20 (2015), 21 (2014), 16 (2013), 2 (2012), 12 (2011) - 1980-2015 Avg = 12 Days

Severe T'storms: 4 (08/08/2017), (07/24/2017), (01/19/2016), (08/05/2012)

Vicinity Severe T'storms: 9 (dates below)

09/04/2011, 09/12/2011, 08/12/2013, 08/22/2013, 08/04/2014, 08/05/2014, 06/09/2015, 07/05/2015, 07/09/2015

Earliest Warm-Core T'storm: (04/03/2016)

Latest Cold-Core T'storm (06/17/2016)

Latest <32 low (06/18/2014)

Latest "20's" low (06/11/2016) (28 degrees)


#72
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 01 January 2017 - 01:48 AM

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Haha, this is entertaining. Thunder? With these highs? That would be a first. Did accuweather hack them?

 

ddj2wo.jpg

 

Wouldn't that be awesome though!


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Snowfall

2016-17: 47.2"

2015-16: 11.75"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"

 

 

 


#73
hawkstwelve

Posted 01 January 2017 - 01:49 AM

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C-zone strengthening over I-90 corridor..


Kind of looks like it slowed it's progress SSE too.

#74
Kayla

Posted 01 January 2017 - 01:50 AM

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I wonder what the 925mb temps are right now, the precip isn't all snow even though the surface temps are around freezing. That cold air advection needs to happen now!

 

925's are at -1c right now. I've had all snow today and currently have 2" of snow so far at 1,000' just to your east. Upper levels are not your problem, it's the near surface temps. You're getting radiational cooling now but the air just above you is still just above freezing which mixes down under the showers. That should change in the next couple of hours.


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#75
TT-SEA

Posted 01 January 2017 - 01:52 AM

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Still up watching it snow... :)

 

15800316_1194872783914261_75562744333080


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#76
TT-SEA

Posted 01 January 2017 - 01:54 AM

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Kind of looks like it slowed it's progress SSE too.

 

 

That band over Seattle and Bellevue is not really moving... but I think it bodes well for people south and east of there like Jim and the swamp people eventually.



#77
MR.SNOWMIZER

Posted 01 January 2017 - 01:57 AM

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Rare to see a zone set up over kitsap county.

#78
nwsnow

Posted 01 January 2017 - 01:59 AM

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925's are at -1c right now. I've had all snow today and currently have 2" of snow so far at 1,000' just to your east. Upper levels are not your problem, it's the near surface temps. You're getting radiational cooling now but the air just above you is still just above freezing which mixes down under the showers. That should change in the next couple of hours.

 

Maybe 925mb  is fine, but:

http://www.wrh.noaa....IO&num=72&raw=0

 

HIO reporting "Unknown Prcp, Mist" and "Lt Rain, Mist" with the temps at 32 or less in the past few hours. I'm near HIO right now and can confirm that the roads are icy and there are spots of light snow and ice accumulation. The temp was reading 32F here earlier even when a shower came through with a mix.

 

I assume the entire column is cold enough for snow very shortly here. 



#79
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 01 January 2017 - 02:00 AM

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06z is slightly cooler...Still no EURO...


Snowfall

2016-17: 47.2"

2015-16: 11.75"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"

 

 

 


#80
luminen

Posted 01 January 2017 - 02:01 AM

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I was in central Burnaby for a few hours for new years and they got about 6" of new snow on top of what they already had. I made a huge snowman but some arseholes destroyed it within an hour.  :rolleyes:



#81
Skagit Weather

Posted 01 January 2017 - 02:01 AM

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The band up here is just a couple miles north of me, but is moving at a snail's pace. Likely will dissolve before it gets here next week sometime.


Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008):

Max Temp: 96.3F (2009)   Min Temp: 2.0F (2008)   Max Wind Gust: 40 mph (2015, 2012)   Wettest Day: 2.43 (2012)   Avg Yearly Precip: 37"

Snowfall Totals
2008-09: 30" | 2009-10: 0.5" | 2010-11: 21" | 2011-12: 9.5" | 2012-13: 0.2" | 2013-14: 6.2" | 2014-15: 0.0" | 2015-16: 0.25"

2016-17: 8.0" (12/9: 1", 12/18: 0.5", 12/23: 0.75", 12/31-1/1: 1", 2/3: 0.25", 2/6: 3.0", 2/8: 1.5")


#82
Bryant

Posted 01 January 2017 - 02:04 AM

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The band up here is just a couple miles north of me, but is moving at a snail's pace. Likely will dissolve before it gets here next week sometime.



That band did a number on the bow hill area... just drove through. Freeway totally covered and multiple wrecks

#83
dolt

Posted 01 January 2017 - 02:04 AM

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06z suggests it won't be bone dry down here in the southern snowless valley over the next few days, unlike previous runs.



#84
umadbro

Posted 01 January 2017 - 02:04 AM

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33.2 in Amboy. Heavy snow. 4" on the ground.
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KISS - Keep It Simple Stupid


#85
Kayla

Posted 01 January 2017 - 02:04 AM

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Maybe 925mb  is fine, but:

http://www.wrh.noaa....IO&num=72&raw=0

 

HIO reporting "Unknown Prcp, Mist" and "Lt Rain, Mist" with the temps at 32 or less in the past few hours. I'm near HIO right now and can confirm that the roads are icy and there are spots of light snow and ice accumulation. The temp was reading 32F here earlier even when a shower came through with a mix.

 

I assume the entire column is cold enough for snow very shortly here. 

 

Yeah my guess is somewhere in the 100' - 600' column above you is above freezing. Need the southerly gradient to relax.



#86
Bryant

Posted 01 January 2017 - 02:05 AM

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Just got home

DfESwoE.jpg

Hhplrc0h.jpg
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#87
Kayla

Posted 01 January 2017 - 02:06 AM

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06z is slightly cooler...Still no EURO...

 

Still worlds different as well.



#88
Kayla

Posted 01 January 2017 - 02:07 AM

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Just got home

DfESwoE.jpg

Hhplrc0h.jpg

 

Wow!!


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#89
nwsnow

Posted 01 January 2017 - 02:09 AM

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Just got home

DfESwoE.jpg

Hhplrc0h.jpg

 

Awesome :). Glad you scored. 


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#90
nwsnow

Posted 01 January 2017 - 02:10 AM

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Yeah my guess is somewhere in the 100' - 600' column above you is above freezing. Need the southerly gradient to relax.

 

Yeah, radar is still looking decent. Seems moisture should still be good for a while. Wouldn't be too surprised if a lot of the metro outside the really crappy places got an inch or so. 


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#91
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 01 January 2017 - 02:14 AM

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I will say this. The 06z is a step in the right direction.


Snowfall

2016-17: 47.2"

2015-16: 11.75"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"

 

 

 


#92
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 01 January 2017 - 02:17 AM

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Sea Tac down to 33 with light snow now.


Snowfall

2016-17: 47.2"

2015-16: 11.75"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"

 

 

 


#93
Bryant

Posted 01 January 2017 - 02:20 AM

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That band over bow hill won't budge... wish there was a DOT cam there. Was fun to drive through
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#94
nwsnow

Posted 01 January 2017 - 02:31 AM

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HIO reporting freezing rain. Sure enough I do have ZR here. Come on, die warm layer. It must be just above the surface. 



#95
TT-SEA

Posted 01 January 2017 - 02:36 AM

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Wow... here is a traffic cam near Sea-Tac.

 

518vc00252.jpg



#96
Bryant

Posted 01 January 2017 - 02:57 AM

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Skagit county about to get hit good

#97
TT-SEA

Posted 01 January 2017 - 03:00 AM

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Just took the last of the kids out to the entrance of the neighborhood to meet their parents.   Radar shows nothing much over us right now but its still coming down hard.   No wind so the trees are really caked.

 

15800510_1194899237244949_26818134892923



#98
G-Sax

Posted 01 January 2017 - 03:25 AM

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C-Zone still going strong around Sea-Tac. Wonder if there's some good amounts down there.



#99
ShawniganLake

Posted 01 January 2017 - 04:41 AM

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  • LocationShawnigan Lake, BC. Southern Vancouver Island, 500ft
Still no sign of an arctic front. 34F in Hope BC. Abbotsford is reporting light winds and 100% humidity.

#100
Skier B

Posted 01 January 2017 - 04:51 AM

Skier B

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4.0" so far just west of Sea-Tac in Burien.
32.0F and dumping!