Ice_is_Everywhere Posted November 30, 2022 Report Share Posted November 30, 2022 1 minute ago, TacomaWx said: Overall most of the 18z runs look pretty solid for the south sound tomorrow night. What about the Central Sound? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thickhog Posted November 30, 2022 Report Share Posted November 30, 2022 17 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said: 33˚F rain is just about the worst. So close, yet so far. I'm genuinely curious how many major metropolitan areas have both 1) a higher number of 33/34 degree rain days, and 2) less average annual snowfall, than PDX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slushy Inch Posted November 30, 2022 Report Share Posted November 30, 2022 1 minute ago, MillCreekMike said: .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...A frontal system continues to move through the area today. Southerly winds have been picking up through the afternoon and temperatures have warmed up to the mid 30s for the lowland interior region. Heavier precipitation associated with the warm front has been enough to switch precipitation type over to snow/wintery mix for areas below 1000 feet. Winter weather products have been updated to be for areas above 1000 feet. For areas that had winter weather products cancelled (Seattle metro, Hood Canal, Lower Chehalis, and all areas below 1000 feet) there remains the chance of wintery precipitation but it should be minimal and short lived. That's just not true. I'm at 50 feet in Bothell, it's 32 degrees, all the stations around me show 32 and it is snowing lightly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawksfan2008 Posted November 30, 2022 Report Share Posted November 30, 2022 Winter storm warning dropped with no accumulation expected now per NWS. What a ride. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post MR.SNOWMIZER Posted November 30, 2022 Popular Post Report Share Posted November 30, 2022 Mess out here. Roads are bad. 13 1 1 We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 30, 2022 Report Share Posted November 30, 2022 It makes sense with such a strong low to end up with stronger warm air advection pushing further north than modeled. I hope you guys got some snow though. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
runninthruda206 Posted November 30, 2022 Report Share Posted November 30, 2022 When’s the last time NWS put this little faith into both the euro and gfs?? Kinda wild nobody is buying it 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gummy Posted November 30, 2022 Report Share Posted November 30, 2022 Welp, didn't need to bring snow boots to work after all. Oh well. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
runninthruda206 Posted November 30, 2022 Report Share Posted November 30, 2022 1 minute ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said: Mess out here. Roads are bad. This is all I ever wanted 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Snap Posted November 30, 2022 Report Share Posted November 30, 2022 Currently 32 with a DP of 29 Just measures 1.5” of snow. Lightly snowing right now. It seems like the east winds are really doing their job right now but it’s looking great for me temp wise for when the main moisture arrives. 1 2023 - 2024 Cold Season Stats Total Snowfall - 0.75” Max Snow Depth - 0.5” Coldest High Temp - 21 (Jan 13) Coldest Low Temp - 9 (Jan 13) Number of Freezes - 51 Sub-40 highs - 12 Highs 32 or lower - 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KingstonWX Posted November 30, 2022 Report Share Posted November 30, 2022 2 minutes ago, 12345WeatherNerd said: That's just not true. I'm at 50 feet in Bothell, it's 32 degrees, all the stations around me show 32 and it is snowing lightly. What's funny is the AFD says snow for areas 1000ft+ but the updated WWA says 4-6" above 500ft. NWS can't figure this out either. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post MR.SNOWMIZER Posted November 30, 2022 Popular Post Report Share Posted November 30, 2022 5 inches and dumping still. 11 We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slushy Inch Posted November 30, 2022 Report Share Posted November 30, 2022 Well, the heavy stuff is moving in soon. Still snowing... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doinko Posted November 30, 2022 Report Share Posted November 30, 2022 Just now, KingstonWX said: What's funny is the AFD says snow for areas 1000ft+ but the updated WWA says 4-6" above 500ft. NWS can't figure this out either. Why has NWS Seattle been so inconsistent with their AFDs and warnings/advisories? Hard to tell what they are communicating 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWx Posted November 30, 2022 Report Share Posted November 30, 2022 5 minutes ago, Ice_is_Everywhere said: What about the Central Sound? Based on the models it’s shown snow up as far as Everett and Arlington with the focus of it mostly from Seattle to Olympia. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RayRay Posted November 30, 2022 Report Share Posted November 30, 2022 1 minute ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said: 5 inches and dumping still. Hike up green mountain is guaranteed for me this weekend. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slushy Inch Posted November 30, 2022 Report Share Posted November 30, 2022 Current temps are equal if not lower than what 18z GFS shows for 5pm. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snownerd3000 Posted November 30, 2022 Report Share Posted November 30, 2022 8 minutes ago, Hawksfan2008 said: Looking closer the EURO is way too low on dew points… Good observation 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nov1985 Posted November 30, 2022 Report Share Posted November 30, 2022 18Z didn't wiggle much for tonight. Still some hours left to dream. It will be windy in the usual spots though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KingstonWX Posted November 30, 2022 Report Share Posted November 30, 2022 3 minutes ago, Doinko said: Why has NWS Seattle been so inconsistent with their AFDs and warnings/advisories? Hard to tell what they are communicating I like to imagine them as a bizarro version of this forum. A bunch of people debating how they can avoid forecasting snow. 4 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slushy Inch Posted November 30, 2022 Report Share Posted November 30, 2022 GFS has temp drop when heavy precip moves in, we'll see. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Requiem Posted November 30, 2022 Report Share Posted November 30, 2022 Either NWS Seattle is seeing something we aren't to bet against even the short-term EURO or is gonna end up with egg on their face. I could imagine them downgrading, but *dropping* the advisories altogether could be really bad as far as the public messaging side of things. But... they are the experts. 5 "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smerfylicious Posted November 30, 2022 Report Share Posted November 30, 2022 I spoke too soon. Gusts over 30mph and moderate snow. Borderline blizzard/white out conditions here and now I have to go find my garbage can 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snownerd3000 Posted November 30, 2022 Report Share Posted November 30, 2022 4 minutes ago, 12345WeatherNerd said: Well, the heavy stuff is moving in soon. Still snowing... Don't lie, the NWS said temps have warmed enough that we're all seeing rain 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slushy Inch Posted November 30, 2022 Report Share Posted November 30, 2022 Just now, KingstonWX said: I like to imagine them as a bizarro version of this forum. A bunch of people debating how they can avoid forecasting snow. It's like the inversion of this forum, too funny. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KingstonWX Posted November 30, 2022 Report Share Posted November 30, 2022 Just now, Requiem said: Either NWS Seattle is seeing something we aren't to bet against even the short-term EURO or is gonna end up with egg on their face. I'm not able to at the moment, but has anyone checked current placement and track of the low? That could be it. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weiner Warrior Posted November 30, 2022 Report Share Posted November 30, 2022 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slushy Inch Posted November 30, 2022 Report Share Posted November 30, 2022 Just now, KingstonWX said: I'm not able to at the moment, but has anyone checked current placement and track of the low? That could be it. Their observation is just current temps, which is mystifying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KingstonWX Posted November 30, 2022 Report Share Posted November 30, 2022 1 minute ago, 12345WeatherNerd said: Their observation is just current temps, which is mystifying. I guess they really are expecting temps to moderate further. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeanNyberg Posted November 30, 2022 Report Share Posted November 30, 2022 Listen the NWS is probably right to be skeptical and conservative with the snow totals. They aren't just making this stuff up and we tend to bust more than we perform when it comes to snow. BUT, this wishy washy inconsistent AFD and Warning/Watches is really odd. It is like, if you see this thing busting, then say it clearly and have your watches/warnings match your clear statement. If you think the models are on to something, then say that and have the watches/warnings reflect that. But they seem to be hedging more than usual. Like yesterday's watch/warning then that weird AFD. Leave the hedging to us amateurs who hedge with our friends and family so that we look right no matter what happens. lol. But take a position, support it with a reason, and have it be consistent with your watches/warnings. This seems new. The NWS has done some weird stuff in the past, but the weird communication the last day or two has been disconcerting. 6 -------------------- Sean Nyberg IG: @SeanNyberg X: @SeanNyberg Facebook: Sean Nyberg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nov1985 Posted November 30, 2022 Report Share Posted November 30, 2022 4 minutes ago, smerfylicious said: I spoke too soon. Gusts over 30mph and moderate snow. Borderline blizzard/white out conditions here and now I have to go find my garbage can East wind? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted November 30, 2022 Report Share Posted November 30, 2022 (edited) 13 minutes ago, thickhog said: I'm genuinely curious how many major metropolitan areas have both 1) a higher number of 33/34 degree rain days, and 2) less average annual snowfall, than PDX. Charlotte and Raleigh would probably at least be close. They're often just barely on the wrong side of the R/S line. Edited November 30, 2022 by BLI snowman 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joelgombiner Posted November 30, 2022 Report Share Posted November 30, 2022 2 minutes ago, KingstonWX said: I'm not able to at the moment, but has anyone checked current placement and track of the low? That could be it. To my untrained eye, the center of cyclonic circulation looks to be offshore the middle of Vancouver Island. Useful weather links Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeInEverett Posted November 30, 2022 Report Share Posted November 30, 2022 1 minute ago, SeanNyberg said: Listen the NWS is probably right to be skeptical and conservative with the snow totals. They aren't just making this stuff up and we tend to bust more than we perform when it comes to snow. BUT, this wishy washy inconsistent AFD and Warning/Watches is really odd. It is like, if you see this thing busting, then say it clearly and have your watches/warnings match your clear statement. If you think the models are on to something, then say that and have the watches/warnings reflect that. But they seem to be hedging more than usual. Like yesterday's watch/warning then that weird AFD. Leave the hedging to us amateurs who hedge with our friends and family so that we look right no matter what happens. lol. But take a position, support it with a reason, and have it be consistent with your watches/warnings. This seems new. The NWS has done some weird stuff in the past, but the weird communication the last day or two has been disconcerting. It’s like their different shifts each have their own opinions and whenever the morning shift or the evening shift comes on they change it back to what they want to forecast.. like what is going on lol 2 (Previous name: MillCreekMike) Everett, WA (elev. 180’) 2023-2024 Snowfall: 1/11: Tr. 1/18: Tr. Go M’s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slushy Inch Posted November 30, 2022 Report Share Posted November 30, 2022 2 minutes ago, KingstonWX said: I guess they really are expecting temps to moderate further. They said it was based on current temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWx Posted November 30, 2022 Report Share Posted November 30, 2022 This is very much a coin flip situation…very tough spot to be in for the NWS trying to predict this event. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawksfan2008 Posted November 30, 2022 Report Share Posted November 30, 2022 I wonder if they’re expecting a wind shift earlier than modeled on the GFS/EURO? They both stay mostly easterly into the early morning whereas the NBM and mesoscale models flip to southerly way quicker. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeepFriedEgg Posted November 30, 2022 Report Share Posted November 30, 2022 PDX switched from S to ESE flow and temp dropped from 43 to 37. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post MR.SNOWMIZER Posted November 30, 2022 Popular Post Report Share Posted November 30, 2022 Lol they dropped the warning here even. Meanwhile there 5 inches of snow with trees falling and cars in the dich everywhere and it continues to snow. The range of depth here is 2 inches at sea level to 5 inches at 600 ft. 12 1 We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joelgombiner Posted November 30, 2022 Report Share Posted November 30, 2022 Hard to blame the NWS. It's a borderline situation with a lot of complicated dynamics and the models have been all over the place. 4 Useful weather links Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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