December 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[Deweydog]

I should have known better to second-guess Mark Nelson... Chilly rain in downtown PDX this AM.

His accuracy bias continues to haunt him.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Dewey has his serious hat on today.

[Weather101]

It was nice waking up to snow.

[BLI snowman]

Got it. So we actually want that low to be weaker.

 

 

Pretty much. As currently modeled by the GFS, it's a pretty quick-hitting and low impact event for most of us. 

[seattleweatherguy]

Seeing first fakes mixed flakes of the yr

[HighlandExperience]

Seeing first fakes mixed flakes of the yr

Looks like most of the hills around Seattle seeing snow this morning. Hopefully tonight is even better.

[TT-SEA]

Mind taking a video or two? Need my fix.

 

 

Video of the snow falling here...

 

http://tinypic.com/r/2j4a7ok/9

[Phil]

Wavebreaking less stable meridionally on the 12z GFS so far.

 

Might make it tougher.

[MikeInEverett]

Really anxious for tonight.. Crazy to think if we end up with a good CZ I could get a good 4-6 inches of snow, and then have a good hard freeze and snow on the ground for a few days.. Or if the CZ doesn't form I get nothing. Gonna be lots of radar watching this evening.

[MossMan]

All snow at work...small flakes...not sticking but magical! 33 degrees. (My work is north part of Stanwood just on the east side of I-5 at about 400ft.)

[Guest happ]

Video of the snow falling here...

 

http://tinypic.com/r/2j4a7ok/9

 

I've been waiting for your visuals this morning

[Weather101]

Around 2"

[Perturbed Member]

I knew that there was a real  good chance that I'd see no accumulations from today but I didn't think that I would see zero snow falling. I don't think I've actually seen any flakes at all. Hopefully Thursday goes better.

[TT-SEA]

Snowing and sticking in Covington... where is Jim??

[Bryant]

A little elevation making a difference right now. Just a dusting here, but nice to see.

 

South of Fairhaven:

 

http://i.imgur.com/ty4sgkd.jpg

 

Lake Samish:

 

http://i.imgur.com/cV5Xp7D.jpg

[catnip]

Snowing and sticking in Covington... where is Jim??

 

Outside building a snowman!

[MossMan]

Moderate to heavy snow now!!!

[Geos]

Video of the snow falling here...

 

http://tinypic.com/r/2j4a7ok/9

 

Very pretty.

Been snowing here for a good hour, but nothing more than slushy windshields and a little on the roof tops.

[stuffradio]

It's currently snowing steadily at my house. I went to bed without snow last night, woke up to it not snowing but the ground was mostly covered, and now it's snowing steadily.

[BLI snowman]

12z GFS looks like the 00z Euro, seems believable. 

[Goducks09]

12z GFS appears to have snapped back to reality...

[PV=nRT]

12Z sounding over SLE this morning:

 

1000-850MB Thickness: 1296m

925MB Temp: -0.3C

850MB Temp: -5.9C

Light southerly surface wind.

 

It all adds up to a tad to mild for snow to the valley floor in the Portland Metro area today.......

[westcoastexpat]

12Z keeps cold air in place and drops 2 feet of snow across metro Vancouver over the weekend.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Snowing and starting to stick at Staley's Jct. just west of Hillsboro at 200' now. Half hour ago it was raining there with wet pavement. 

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Looking at some of the observations in the BC interior, it would seem there's plenty of cold air to draw into already. Currently sunny here in Victoria and 35F, but there are some nice looking towering cumulus clouds rolling down the Juan de Fuca. This was the extent of the snow here, a short distance down the hill there's nothing:

http://i131.photobucket.com/albums/p286/jemeric/IMG_3685_zpsmxtu7k16.jpg

[MossMan]

12z GFS looks like the 00z Euro, seems believable.

Now watch the 12z Euro bounce back to epicness!

[FroYoBro]

A few flakes mixed in with the rain as I drove to work in Beaverton. Not super exciting this morning down this way. 

[Prairiedog]

Someone already mentioned Rod Hills forecast.  He's got temps mid to upper 40's through the weekend without even a hint of east winds or any cold.  No highs below 40 all week.  What model is he locked on to?  Seems to be a bit of a  contrarian.  At least Mark has Tues. Wed. in the 30's but then same as Rod's forecast for temps through Sat.  Rainy, windy, and milder. 

[Jbolin]

Been DUMPING snow for almost an hour now and this is the view from our 6th floor deck in West Seattle looking Northeast towards DT Seattle 

[MossMan]

Been staring out the window at work since I got here watching the snow fall...being productive is tough with that kind of distraction!

[westcoastexpat]

12Z GFS is epic for Canadian posters, wow!

[richard mann]

(.. cross-refernce.)
 
http://theweatherforums.com/index.php/topic/1445-mid-fall-2016-colder-air-mass-movement-and-distribution-projections/?p=174474

[pscz1140]

It's been snowing hard in Capitol Hill since I woke up just after 8:00. Everything is white except for the roads.

 

From webcams it looks it might be raining (or at least sticking less) a bit lower down, though.

[Timmy]

Hr 204 reminds me of Jan 2010 or 2011. Battle of the cold and warm. I got 12" of snow overnight in scappoose and pdx got nothing I believe.

[HighlandExperience]

Looks like the precip will be ending soon. Crossing fingers for good cz tonight@!

[TT-SEA]

Snow globe out there.... at least 2 inches in the last 90 minutes.  

[FroYoBro]

To me Thursday still looks fairly good for Portland. We should at least see some sort of frozen precipitation. Definitely better than today. 

[Phil]

Clown range 12z GFS is gonna try something.

[catnip]

12Z GFS is epic for Canadian posters, wow!

 

Maybe Flatiron's prediction will pan out.

[Heavy Snow]

Wow, I just woke up and the GFS is showing an Arctic Blast again. 3 consecutive runs now! Will analyze it after I take a shower and eat breakfast.