SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 7, 2016 Report Share Posted December 7, 2016 Well, that isn't entirely true. That setup was more of an 11-19-03 on steroids. There was no real dry advection, it was all about precip rates and relatively calm gradients. The easterly drift helped, but it certainly wasn't the catalyst of that event as the outflow is this go around. Yeah very rare for Silverton to go from rain to snow in an overrunning type situation. 12/20/08 is the only time I ever remember that happening. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 7, 2016 Report Share Posted December 7, 2016 I should know better than to get into a disagreement with a lawyer, (married to one) but the moisture/radar returns are slightly ahead of schedule. Not saying that the precip looks to arrive at midnight now or anything but it could start closer to 8-9am rather than 11-1pm. 4pm forecastScreen Shot 2016-12-07 at 3.38.31 PM.png Radar return at 3:30pmScreen Shot 2016-12-07 at 3.49.56 PM.png I worry the dry air might eat the first hour or two of it... Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 7, 2016 Report Share Posted December 7, 2016 I should know better than to get into a disagreement with a lawyer, (married to one) but the moisture/radar returns are slightly ahead of schedule. Not saying that the precip looks to arrive at midnight now or anything but it could start closer to 8-9am rather than 11-1pm. 4pm forecastScreen Shot 2016-12-07 at 3.38.31 PM.png Radar return at 3:30pmScreen Shot 2016-12-07 at 3.49.56 PM.pngOk Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 7, 2016 Report Share Posted December 7, 2016 EUG is going to end up with a midnight high of 36... Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted December 7, 2016 Report Share Posted December 7, 2016 18z GFS ensembles show shocking improvement...Yay for the drunk uncles!!!! All of them!!!Only hit 32 here at work! Down to 30 now. Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prairiedog Posted December 8, 2016 Report Share Posted December 8, 2016 Yeah but I don't like crushing people's hopes. I'll still be hoping for a miracle!Then we should cut back on the hyperbole. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Posted December 8, 2016 Report Share Posted December 8, 2016 18z GFS ensembles show shocking improvement...Pics or it didn't happen Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FroYoBro Posted December 8, 2016 Report Share Posted December 8, 2016 Getting pretty breezy here. I love getting east winds. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted December 8, 2016 Report Share Posted December 8, 2016 Welp, I'm gonna take my stab at it for my house... 1.25 inches with a 3:45 p.m. changeover (with a 10 minute margin of error). I'll take it. Only fly in the ointment is whether this will be a gorge-north snuff out setup. I've just never quite locked on how to spot one of those definitively. Since we're not in the wind here at the moment, I'm gonna discount it.12/14/08 (or 12/24/1983) had a pretty strong downsloping component which killed Clark County's snow. Tomorrow looks like more of a classic gap wind (E or ESE) and not as much of a mountain wave orientation. I doubt we see a huge impact on our moisture. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted December 8, 2016 Report Share Posted December 8, 2016 Gorgeous sunset in Seattle right now. 3 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted December 8, 2016 Report Share Posted December 8, 2016 But that kind of event is easier to pull off IMO without as much surface cold air to the east or already in place. 12/29/03 is a perfect example, gorge and basin temps were nothing to write home about. To me those kind of events are a totally different animal. Those types of events are actually more rare, comparatively. It's harder to get widespread heavy snow here with minimal gorge assistance. And wet bulb temps are very supportive of widespread snow and frozen stuff initially for the Portland metro, so I'm not sure why you're skeptical of the airmass being enough. It's marginal but it will easily support frozen precip. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 8, 2016 Report Share Posted December 8, 2016 High of 32 at BLI today. Warning shot! 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted December 8, 2016 Report Share Posted December 8, 2016 Well, that isn't entirely true. That setup was more of an 11-19-03 on steroids. There was no real dry advection, it was all about precip rates and relatively calm gradients. The easterly drift helped, but it certainly wasn't the catalyst of that event as the outflow is this go around.We had enough dry air advection at the mid levels to drop temps appreciably. Temps bottomed out at 29-30 with the 1/27 storm, which isn't exactly borderline slop territory. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted December 8, 2016 Report Share Posted December 8, 2016 18z GFS ensembles show shocking improvement...I was just going to post about this. Lots of support for the cold shot east side early next week. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kayla Posted December 8, 2016 Report Share Posted December 8, 2016 I worry the dry air might eat the first hour or two of it... Yeah pretty typical in these setups. Quote Cold Season 2023/24: Total snowfall: 26" Highest daily snowfall: 5" Deepest snow depth: 12" Coldest daily high: -20ºF Coldest daily low: -42ºF Number of subzero days: 5 Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 8, 2016 Report Share Posted December 8, 2016 High of 29 here today... currently at 26. Dewpoint keeps dropping... down to 17. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jbolin Posted December 8, 2016 Report Share Posted December 8, 2016 I've been pushed over the edge Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luvssnow_spokane Posted December 8, 2016 Report Share Posted December 8, 2016 Given how the ensembles continue to flip-flop on a near run-to-run basis, it's pretty evident the LR is in flux and the models don't really know what is going to happen. The good thing is that potential is there for 'bouts of snow throughout the period. Best we can ask for at this point.Oh brother... here we go again. Quote My Weather Station https://tempestwx.com/station/61434 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted December 8, 2016 Report Share Posted December 8, 2016 High of 32 at BLI today. Warning shot! Two sub-40 highs at SEA in the same month for the first time since Feb 2014. Bam! 4 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heavy Snow Posted December 8, 2016 Report Share Posted December 8, 2016 Now the fun begins. We can start to follow the radar. Looks like moisture close to Roseburg. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brennan Posted December 8, 2016 Report Share Posted December 8, 2016 Two sub-40 highs at SEA in the same month for the first time since Feb 2014. Bam!It is certainly progress. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Posted December 8, 2016 Report Share Posted December 8, 2016 I was just going to post about this. Lots of support for the cold shot east side early next week.The 12z euro ensembles over half showed a blast into at least eastern wa and or. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skagit Weather Posted December 8, 2016 Report Share Posted December 8, 2016 Two sub-40 highs at SEA in the same month for the first time since Feb 2014. Bam!They hit 40 yesterday didn't they? Or are you talking about tomorrow? Quote Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008): Max Temp: 96.3F (2009) Min Temp: 2.0F (2008) Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021) Wettest Day: 2.34 (11/4/22) Avg Yearly Precip: 37" 10yr Avg Snow: 8.0" Snowfall Totals '08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5" | '21-22: 21.75" | '22-23: 10.0" 2023-24: 7.0" (1/17: 3", 1/18: 1.5", 2/26: 0.5", 3/4: 2.0", Flakes: 1/11, 1/16) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted December 8, 2016 Report Share Posted December 8, 2016 They hit 40 yesterday didn't they? Or are you talking about tomorrow? 39 on Monday. 38 today. Tomorrow will make 3! Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 8, 2016 Report Share Posted December 8, 2016 42/52 (81%) 12z Euro ensemble members show Seattle getting snow at some point past this Thursday/Friday. 34/52 (65%) show the same for Portland. Those are pretty D**n good odds if you ask me. Well why don't ensembles call/text the operational and tell it to get its in one bag. 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted December 8, 2016 Report Share Posted December 8, 2016 Millionaire Well why don't ensembles call/text the operational and tell it to get its s**t in one bag. Millionaire Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted December 8, 2016 Report Share Posted December 8, 2016 Some big 00z's coming up tonight...hopefully everyone has refilled their Zoloft! Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted December 8, 2016 Report Share Posted December 8, 2016 Feels like snow out there! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 8, 2016 Report Share Posted December 8, 2016 42/52 (81%) 12z Euro ensemble members show Seattle getting snow at some point past this Thursday/Friday. 34/52 (65%) show the same for Portland. Those are pretty D**n good odds if you ask me. Good information... thanks for the stats. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 8, 2016 Report Share Posted December 8, 2016 HRRR timing... precip into Portland at 11 a.m. and not really into Seattle until 7 p.m. http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRR/jsloopLocalDiskDateDomainZipTZA.cgi?dsKeys=hrrr_jet:&runTime=2016120721&plotName=1ref_t1sfc&fcstInc=60&numFcsts=37&model=hrrr&ptitle=HRRR%20Model%20Fields%20-%20Experimental&maxFcstLen=36&fcstStrLen=-1&resizePlot=1&domain=t1 It also shows snow in Seattle from roughly 7-11 p.m. tomorrow night and then turning to rain. http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRR/jsloopLocalDiskDateDomainZipTZA.cgi?dsKeys=hrrr_jet:&runTime=2016120721&plotName=1hsnw_t1sfc&fcstInc=60&numFcsts=37&model=hrrr&ptitle=HRRR%20Model%20Fields%20-%20Experimental&maxFcstLen=36&fcstStrLen=-1&resizePlot=1&domain=t1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted December 8, 2016 Report Share Posted December 8, 2016 HRRR timing... precip into Portland at 11 a.m. and not really into Seattle until 7 p.m. http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRR/jsloopLocalDiskDateDomainZipTZA.cgi?dsKeys=hrrr_jet:&runTime=2016120721&plotName=1ref_t1sfc&fcstInc=60&numFcsts=37&model=hrrr&ptitle=HRRR%20Model%20Fields%20-%20Experimental&maxFcstLen=36&fcstStrLen=-1&resizePlot=1&domain=t1 So up to my area around 9pm...argh! Sure wish my daughter could go out and enjoy it before it turns to slop first thing Friday morning. Thursday morning into evening would have been perfect. Oh well. Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jbolin Posted December 8, 2016 Report Share Posted December 8, 2016 Some big 00z's coming up tonight...hopefully everyone has refilled their Zoloft!Who needs Zoloft when you have this group of Ya-Hoo's 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 8, 2016 Report Share Posted December 8, 2016 Some good news and some bad I guess would be the theme today. 1. ECMWF looks better for snow in the Seattle area on the 12z vs 0z for Thursday / Thursday night 2. Early next week looking shaky, but thanks to an inverted surface pressure setup we stay pretty chilly 3. Very good 18z GFS on balance 4. All models agree on very strong positive surface pressure anoms over the GOA next week I think the biggest thing we have going for us next week is the HUGE area of 1030mb plus surface high pressure over the GOA. That feature makes a good outcome at least somewhat likely. Maybe we will have one or two failed attempts like the 18z shows and then strike gold. There is also still a chance the first round will hit us more solidly than is currently indicated. Most model runs are dangerously close either way. The really interesting this is the models depicts long lasting Fraser outflow next week in spite of a mediocre 500mb pattern. With 850s around -6 things could still be pretty cold with that. I'm not even going to try to guess on tomorrow night at this point. I like how confident the NWS is for the East Puget Sound lowlands and the latest ECMWF is decent. In light of that we could see something worthwhile. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 8, 2016 Report Share Posted December 8, 2016 As for precip timing tomorrow I would expect things to happen 2 or 3 hours faster than models predict. They always seem to be slow in situations like this. 3 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
seattleweatherguy Posted December 8, 2016 Report Share Posted December 8, 2016 HRRR timing... precip into Portland at 11 a.m. and not really into Seattle until 7 p.m.http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRR/jsloopLocalDiskDateDomainZipTZA.cgi?dsKeys=hrrr_jet:&runTime=2016120721&plotName=1ref_t1sfc&fcstInc=60&numFcsts=37&model=hrrr&ptitle=HRRR%20Model%20Fields%20-%20Experimental&maxFcstLen=36&fcstStrLen=-1&resizePlot=1&domain=t1 It also shows snow in Seattle from roughly 7-11 p.m. tomorrow night and then turning to rain. http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRR/jsloopLocalDiskDateDomainZipTZA.cgi?dsKeys=hrrr_jet:&runTime=2016120721&plotName=1hsnw_t1sfc&fcstInc=60&numFcsts=37&model=hrrr&ptitle=HRRR%20Model%20Fields%20-%20Experimental&maxFcstLen=36&fcstStrLen=-1&resizePlot=1&domain=t1Wow turns to rain before fri morning that fast Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Posted December 8, 2016 Report Share Posted December 8, 2016 Feels like snow out there!Down to 26 here Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 8, 2016 Report Share Posted December 8, 2016 Wow turns to rain before fri morning that fast That's always been expected. I suppose there is an outside chance we could go longer if the zone of low pressure stalls unexpectedly. Probably a shot at freezing rain in outflow areas also. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 8, 2016 Report Share Posted December 8, 2016 I came up with a 38/24 high/low today. Certainly makes warning shot status. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
seattleweatherguy Posted December 8, 2016 Report Share Posted December 8, 2016 Ah bummer I guess it's an even longer shot to last through the weekend Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted December 8, 2016 Report Share Posted December 8, 2016 I came up with a 38/24 high/low today. Certainly makes warning shot status.33/26 here. Not to bad. Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.