January 2017 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Ha!

 

Your area will do very well regardless.

Even there it might be pretty short lived. It used to be no big deal to get a 10 inch overrunning event out here. Last 5 winters lucky to se a 5 incher.

[HighlandExperience]

Me area, sounds like Mr crabs on sponge bob. Where's me dollar!!

 

You will probably get 50 inches this winter. 

[bainbridgekid]

Not too often you see a convergence zone out in the Pacific to the West of the Olympics.

 

Pretty cool what offshore flow can do.

 

http://komonews.com/weather/scotts-weather-blog/backward-winds-around-seattle-make-for-backwards-convergence-zone

 

 

 

[Kayla]

Things may not have turned out quite as "arctic" as many were hoping but I wouldn't go as far as saying this thing has been a complete bust. Dp's continue to fall as PDX is currently reporting a 12º dp and I'm down to 22º with a dp of 9 and a ripping east wind.

 

It's going to take a while to moderate come this weekend, likely not until Monday morning sometime as the models ALWAYS underestimate the cold dry air and power of the gorge as we all well know.

 

Question of the year is, how fast do the upper levels warm to above freezing?

[Front Ranger]

Dew point down to 5*F up here, pretty dry out there.

 

BLI was down at 0 this AM. Pretty sure that lower than at any point this winter.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

You will probably get 50 inches this winter. 

I got 54 in 08/09

[Perturbed Member]

The holidays are over but maybe Rod Hill is still hitting the bottle pretty hard, he says his confidence is high for a snow/ice storm in PDX this weekend. So far so good. 

 

Then he goes on to say 6 inches of  snow and then ice on top. Hmmm, yeah I'm not so sure about that..as nice as it would be. 

 

Nice guy, but Rod makes some crazy forecasts sometimes. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

The holidays are over but maybe Rod Hill is still hitting the bottle pretty hard, he says his confidence is high for a snow/ice storm in PDX this weekend. So far so good. 

 

Then he goes on to say 6 inches of  snow and then ice on top. Hmmm, yeah I'm not so sure about that..as nice as it would be. 

 

Nice guy, but Rod makes some crazy forecasts sometimes. 

I used to party with dude, crazy mo fo for sure.

[Goducks09]

The holidays are over but maybe Rod Hill is still hitting the bottle pretty hard, he says his confidence is high for a snow/ice storm in PDX this weekend. So far so good. 

 

Then he goes on to say 6 inches of  snow and then ice on top. Hmmm, yeah I'm not so sure about that..as nice as it would be. 

 

Nice guy, but Rod makes some crazy forecasts sometimes. 

 

 

Well, he did call the last event pretty well - and he knows our climate well enough...  But, yeah, I'm not seeing it either.

[Deweydog]

The holidays are over but maybe Rod Hill is still hitting the bottle pretty hard, he says his confidence is high for a snow/ice storm in PDX this weekend. So far so good.

 

Then he goes on to say 6 inches of snow and then ice on top. Hmmm, yeah I'm not so sure about that..as nice as it would be.

 

Nice guy, but Rod makes some crazy forecasts sometimes.

I'd be pretty surprised if anyone in the lowlands, outside of premium cold air damming spots, saw any accumulating snowfall out of this. There's just too much warm advection potential with the overall pattern.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

I'd be pretty surprised if anyone in the lowlands, outside of premium cold air damming spots, saw any accumulating snowfall out of this. There's just too much warm advection potential with the overall pattern.

Hater!! get him!

[TT-SEA]

Not too often you see a convergence zone out in the Pacific to the West of the Olympics.

 

Pretty cool what offshore flow can do.

 

http://komonews.com/weather/scotts-weather-blog/backward-winds-around-seattle-make-for-backwards-convergence-zone

 

6ea20e0b-a552-4145-b43d-68d1b251b30b-large16x9_anti_pscz.jpg

 

 

Bet its dumping snow out there over the ocean.   

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Tim you have the snow maps for the hood canal of the euro?

[Kayla]

The holidays are over but maybe Rod Hill is still hitting the bottle pretty hard, he says his confidence is high for a snow/ice storm in PDX this weekend. So far so good. 

 

Then he goes on to say 6 inches of  snow and then ice on top. Hmmm, yeah I'm not so sure about that..as nice as it would be. 

 

Nice guy, but Rod makes some crazy forecasts sometimes. 

 

Must be basing his whole forecast off of the NAVGEM. 

[Bham_Guy]

BLI was down at 0 this AM. Pretty sure that lower than at any point this winter.

 

Close. It was -1 on Dec. 16th.

[TT-SEA]

Tim you have the snow maps for the hood canal of the euro?

 

 

Weekend snowfall...

 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Weekend snowfall...

 

Shows about 5. Thank you.

[Kayla]

Looks like the 00z NAM forms a weak secondary low resulting in more moisture out ahead before any real WAA begins on Saturday... Grasping for straws at this point, I know.

[jsf343]

Kayla what does WAA mean? Warm air something?

[crf450ish]

More like milton if you ask me.

 

Screen Shot 2017-01-03 at 2.18.23 PM.png

No it's not Milton. It's the old 104th St E now called 31st AVE SW after the annex in 2009. Right down the street from the South Hill Mall.

[Front Ranger]

Looks like the 00z NAM forms a weak secondary low resulting in more moisture out ahead before any real WAA begins on Saturday... Grasping for straws at this point, I know.

 

Nah, it does look like a slightly better setup than the Euro or GFS. Especially for areas further north.

[Kayla]

Kayla what does WAA mean? Warm air something?

 

Got most of it! Warm air advection. Basically just warmer air moving in over a colder low level airmass. Faster the WAA is the faster we turn to freezing rain or ZR.

[umadbro]

Kayla what does WAA mean? Warm air something?

Warm air advection

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Kayla what does WAA mean? Warm air something?

warm are advection.

[Gradient Keeper]

Cold air is looking pretty thick to me. Three Corner Rock down to 9, Wanderer's Peak 8.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Cold air is looking pretty thick to me. Three Corner Rock down to 9, Wanderer's Peak 8.

 

-6 in coldest places in NE wa.

[The Swamp]

warm air advection

[jsf343]

Ahhh ok thanks

[Heavy Snow]

Mark Nelsen on team Euro/GFS for the weekend. ZR to Rain.

 

http://lmgcorporate.com/kptv/weather/ibs_web_7-day.jpg

 

 

This thing isn't quite 2005 status, but it was pretty underwhelming. The truly cold air was never delivered and we get the worst possible way to transition out of it. The majority of SEA and PDX got basically nothing going into it either.

 

Hopefully January can deliver something better in the coming weeks.

This is looking more and more likely just a sleet and/or freezing rain event for PDX Metro. If you live right next to the entrance of the Gorge or Western Washington/Columbia County then you will probably see initial snow due to the cold air damming. I'm still holding out hope to see some snow so I can go sledding for a few hours, that's all I want.

[Jesse]

12 hour snow update: 4.00" at 5pm. No sign of it getting heavier. I may barely get within 8 or 9 inches by the end of the event unless it gets heavier.

It's so unusual to hear someone wishcast for less snow instead of more.

[Perturbed Member]

Looks like the 00z NAM forms a weak secondary low resulting in more moisture out ahead before any real WAA begins on Saturday... Grasping for straws at this point, I know.

Hopefully the NAM joins the GEM and NAVGEM coalition? I'm desperate for anything I guess.

[Timmy Supercell]

Things are heavier than earlier. I will be sure to stay up and get a midnight measurement with pictures if possible (night shot is difficult).

[Front Ranger]

Hi-res NAM shows a little more precip further north tomorrow. Shows decent precip as far north as Salem or so.

[Timmy Supercell]

It's so unusual to hear someone wishcast for less snow instead of more.

 

All I did was make an observation. Up to this point the snow has been very marginal at best. Now it seems to be picking up. 

 

I wasn't forecasting. lol

[Heavy Snow]

The holidays are over but maybe Rod Hill is still hitting the bottle pretty hard, he says his confidence is high for a snow/ice storm in PDX this weekend. So far so good.

 

Then he goes on to say 6 inches of snow and then ice on top. Hmmm, yeah I'm not so sure about that..as nice as it would be.

 

Nice guy, but Rod makes some crazy forecasts sometimes.

I just saw that. Now I have a little more confidence in seeing snow.

[Jesse]

All I did was make an observation. Up to this point the snow has been very marginal at best. Now it seems to be picking up.

 

I wasn't forecasting. lol

Just giving you a hard time. We are all thoroughly jealous.

[epiceast]

I was just looking at Snotels in Oregon. A lot of 2k' to 3k' ones have 8-15" of Snow water equivalent which is about 2x-10x normal and also enough to ski in spots with favorable vegetation & rock placement. Could be really fun to ski very unusual slopes atm.

[Kayla]

Hi-res NAM shows a little more precip further north tomorrow. Shows decent precip as far north as Salem or so.

 

Trend is (still) our friend! Definitely brings a lot more moisture even up to PDX. Of course the east winds suck it all up but stranger things have happened before... 

[Gradient Keeper]

Another surge of modified arctic air moving into eastern Washington/north central Washington/mid-upper Columbia Basin increasing N winds, dewpoints falling to zero or slightly below.

[Deweydog]

Another surge of modified arctic air moving into eastern Washington/north central Washington/mid-upper Columbia Basin increasing N winds, dewpoints falling to zero or slightly below.

Same surge, gradients are just increasing.