January 2017 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[wx_statman]

If you're talking about March 2012 that pattern was fairly close to being like March 1951. Just a few differences that had major implications for some places. That is really where NW Oregon began owning Western WA. From that event onward we haven't been able to do anything up here.

 

That was a pretty exceptional March (2012). Portland had something like five separate snowfall events that month, though not all sticking. We also set the March rainfall record at 7.89". About as wintry of a March as you can imagine.

 

The snowfall in the valley on the 21st was actually a nice complement to the snowfall further north in January. Portland mostly missed out on both. We watched places from Scappoose north get 10-12" in January while we had 1" to 2", and then we watched Eugene get 7" on 3/21 while we got...1" to 2". Even Bandon on the southern coast got 3.5" on March 13th. 

[snow_wizard]

The ensemble has completely changed on the 0z GFS. MUCH warmer in the long range. Highly suspicious to see such a change on the mean in just one run. I guess we'll see if it's a fluke when the ECMWF and 6z GFS come out.

[ShawniganLake]

Not to mention some of the analog years had good event in early March. I consider early March our latest realistic shot at a great event, even though 1870 and 1936 had major snow in mid and late March respectively.

March 2002 was a solidly snowy month up here. We had several events and a 32F high as late as the 20th. 23" total snowfall for the month. Pretty impressive for March.

[Goducks09]

Took an extra long walk this afternoon to soak up the sights...the orange sunset over snow-covered sidewalks, roads, tress and grass.  The last week has been pretty incredible by most standards, and I will be sad to see the snow wash away as quickly as it arrived.  I know our Seattle friends are tired of hearing it, but it has honestly been one of the most memorable events of my 31 short years on this earth.  And if it sounds like I'm being too sentimental about this, it's because I am! I've been stricken with the curse of being emotionally invested in weather.  Even so, I'm still amazed by the little microclimate God built for us here - The Gorge is a fascinating study in geography and meteorology and occasionally delivers amazing surprises.  Thanks to it, we've enjoyed one of the longest stretches of snow cover in quite some time.  As the sun set late this afternoon over town, disappointment washed over me knowing what is to come.  I hate freezing rain with every fiber of my being, and I hope you all will be safe and make good decisions when traveling tomorrow.  After all, I wouldn't want anyone to miss out on what else this little corner of earth has in store for us this winter and beyond.  Cheers y'all!  It's been a fun couple of months!  More to come!!!

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Going to be a long depressing year for me if we can't get this snow monkey off our back this winter. While next winter has an elevated chance of being chilly there are no guarantees on that one either. Could be D**n near forever before we score here.

 

Well we're now up to year 5 and in the past 100 years there have only been 2 larger gaps between snowy Arctic blast winters for this region; one was 6 years ending in the early 1920s and the other was 7 years ending in the 1970s. After both ended we had a nice run of snowy winters. Particularly the gap that ended at the end of the 70s. The other more recent 5 year gap ended in 2004 was also followed by a nice string of snowy winters. Nothing is guaranteed, but climate statistics have a habit of repeating themselves; I doubt you have long to wait.

[HighlandExperience]

Going to be a long depressing year for me if we can't get this snow monkey off our back this winter. While next winter has an elevated chance of being chilly there are no guarantees on that one either. Could be D**n near forever before we score here.

 

Plenty of other things to live for, but I understand the sentiment. Don't get to down on yourself, the weather is outside of our control. 

[MossMan]

The ensemble has completely changed on the 0z GFS. MUCH warmer in the long range. Highly suspicious to see such a change on the mean in just one run. I guess we'll see if it's a fluke when the ECMWF and 6z GFS come out.

Starting to get a bad feeling...5 Year snow drought is getting depressing. Even the crappy span between 1999 and 2005 we still scored some nice events up here...biggest snowfall total since Jan 2012 is Dec 2013 when I had a little over 3". Sad stuff. The amazing stretch we had between 2006 and 2012 is sure a distant memory now. Who knew the new snow capital of the northwest would be northern Oregon. It was comical seeing the satellite pic of Wa and Oregon and seeing mainly only the littlest sliver of the Puget Sound region and coast being snowless...sad sad stuff. Oh well! Onto spring and summer!

[snow_wizard]

Starting to get a bad feeling...5 Year snow drought is getting depressing. Even the crappy span between 1999 and 2005 we still scored some nice events up here...biggest snowfall total since Jan 2012 is Dec 2013 when I had a little over 3". Sad stuff. The amazing stretch we had between 2006 and 2012 is sure a distant memory now. Who knew the new snow capital of the northwest would be northern Oregon. It was comical seeing the satellite pic of Wa and Oregon and seeing mainly only the littlest sliver of the Puget Sound region and coast being snowless...sad sad stuff. Oh well! Onto spring and summer!

No doubt this is getting demoralizing. I really thought 2006 through 2012 was a turning point for us. I still can't figure out how Seattle had 14 out of 20 winters with over 10 inches of snow from 1892 through 1912 when a number of those didn't have the kind of cold we had in 2013-14 and this winter. The worst one of the bunch had 3 inches! How was cold different back then than it is now?

[Bryant]

The ensemble has completely changed on the 0z GFS. MUCH warmer in the long range. Highly suspicious to see such a change on the mean in just one run. I guess we'll see if it's a fluke when the ECMWF and 6z GFS come out.

Give it a bit... it's going to take the models a while to catch onto the overall progression. Early February yeilds watching, and has for a while now

[HighlandExperience]

Starting to get a bad feeling...5 Year snow drought is getting depressing. Even the crappy span between 1999 and 2005 we still scored some nice events up here...biggest snowfall total since Jan 2012 is Dec 2013 when I had a little over 3". Sad stuff. The amazing stretch we had between 2006 and 2012 is sure a distant memory now. Who knew the new snow capital of the northwest would be northern Oregon. It was comical seeing the satellite pic of Wa and Oregon and seeing mainly only the littlest sliver of the Puget Sound region and coast being snowless...sad sad stuff. Oh well! Onto spring and summer!

 

Not sure we will ever see a significant snowfall again in the Central Puget Sound. As far as I am concerned the recent storm in Oregon was a fluke of nature. As the climate continues to warm, decent snow events will continue to become rare. 

[Dave]

Not sure we will ever see a significant snowfall again in the Central Puget Sound. As far as I am concerned the recent storm in Oregon was a fluke of nature. As the climate continues to warm, decent snow events will continue to become rare. 

Sounds like someone needs a drink or two.

[Bryant]

Keep the weenies in your pants guys, it will get cold again

[crf450ish]

I'm fairly confident this Solar Minimum will aid in the production of some bada** winters....

[snow_wizard]

Give it a bit... it's going to take the models a while to catch onto the overall progression. Early February yeilds watching, and has for a while now

Yeah...we have the MJO wave in play in a couple of days too.

 

I just came to realize we may have a Nino next winter which has further added to my gloomy attitude. It would be unprecedented to have a Nino so soon after a multi year strong El Nino so there is hope we can avoid it.

[snow_wizard]

I'm fairly confident this Solar Minimum will aid in the production of some bada** winters....

I think so too. This one just chaps my hide so badly because we have had no less than a dozen good shots at snow and just haven't been able to score. I'm simply out of patience.

[snow_wizard]

Not sure we will ever see a significant snowfall again in the Central Puget Sound. As far as I am concerned the recent storm in Oregon was a fluke of nature. As the climate continues to warm, decent snow events will continue to become rare.

It's obvious cold isn't the problem. 2013-14 and now this one.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Not sure we will ever see a significant snowfall again in the Central Puget Sound. As far as I am concerned the recent storm in Oregon was a fluke of nature. As the climate continues to warm, decent snow events will continue to become rare. 

 

Even in the "good old days" we had bad stretches, but it's easier to miss those in 100 years of data where epic stretches stand out far more than the many duds. As I pointed out, the second half of the 70s would have been frustrating, but also a good part of the 30s and 40s were pretty lousy. There's nothing particularly abnormal about what we're seeing now; if it goes on like this for another 3~4 years without another major event there might be some merit.

[Timmy Supercell]

Yup. Between 1920 and 1950 there have been small periods where 2-4 consecutive winters would be under average snowfall, and even 1 or 2 considerably under average by a big margin about every handful of winters.

There was even a 5" winter '33-'34 in Klamath Falls.

 

Last half of the 60's wasn't very great for this area.

 

'65-'66: 25.80"

'66-'67: 13.00"

'67-'68: 7.00"

'68-'69: 21.50"

'69-'70: 26.50"

 

And this was when the seasonal averages were higher than today, probably closer to 42-45" in a winter is what was considered my normal.

[TT-SEA]

Just got home... late night flight from Vegas,    

 

It would appear that 40+ degrees and sunny with a low dewpoint does not melt much at all.   It does not look any different really then when we left.   I would say still 5-6 inches of solid coverage here even in places that are in the sun during the day.     

 

Side note... I just can't relate to being depressed all year because your backyard did not have a few days of snow.   Depressing would be a cold, rainy summer.   That is a long-lasting reality.   Not getting snow for a few days is a short term pain and then its over either way.    Hardly something to let ruin your entire year.    Just my two cents.   

[Brennan]

Just got home... late night flight from Vegas,

 

It would appear that 40+ degrees and sunny with a low dewpoint does not melt much at all. It does not look any different really then when we left. I would say still 5-6 inches of solid coverage here even in places that are in the sun during the day.

 

Side note... I just can't relate to being depressed all year because your backyard did not have a few days of snow. Depressing would be a cold, rainy summer. That is a long-lasting reality. Not getting snow for a few days is a short term pain and then its over either way. Hardly something to let ruin your entire year. Just my two cents.

What did you do in Vegas?

[TT-SEA]

What did you do in Vegas?

Just a long weekend getaway.

[Brennan]

Just a long weekend getaway.

Yeah but what did you do? No pools in Vegas in January. Gamble?

[Phil]

Yeah but what did you do? No pools in Vegas in January. Gamble?

What happens in Vegas, stays in Vegas.

[umadbro]

Yeah but what did you do? No pools in Vegas in January. Gamble?

It's Vegas. What else do people do in Vegas?

[catnip]

It's Vegas. What else do people do in Vegas?

Troll weather forums?

[TT-SEA]

Troll weather forums?

Clever.

 

For the record... I did not troll at all though.

 

Brennan - my kids actually did use the pools on the sunny days. The water was heated to about 86 and in 60-degree sun that is actually decent. They stayed in for long periods of time so it must have pleasant enough. Sitting by the pool was also just fine if you were out of the wind. Lots of people were doing it.... probably all from the Midwest!

 

We gambled a little... did the Hoover Dam tour... my sons did the rides at the Stratosphere... we walked the strip and took in all the sights (my son is big into photography and he loved it at night)... some great meals... slept in... etc.

 

Just get away from home for a few days and break up the routine.

[Jesse]

This morning's precip band is looking pretty light.

[Alex_Snakes]

It's Vegas. What else do people do in Vegas?

Get an incurable disease? Broke?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Record low max at PDX yesterday....More records east side....

 

RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
237 AM MST TUE JAN 17 2017

...RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES SET AT ONTARIO AND BAKER...

A RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE OF -10 DEGREES WAS SET AT ONTARIO OREGON
YESTERDAY. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF -4 SET IN 2013. A RECORD
LOW TEMPERATURE OF -18 DEGREES WAS SET AT BAKER OREGON YESTERDAY.
THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF -10 SET IN 1949.

[Front Ranger]

This morning's precip band is looking pretty light.

Step 1 to Mark busting.

 

Quick mixing of the shallow cold layer once the real precip starts is step 2.

[TT-SEA]

36 here with a dewpoint now of 35.

 

Had a little rain but dry right now.

[luminen]

41/41 here and moderate rain.

[Timmy]

Tidewater near astoria at 2000' is up to 43 with strong south wind

[TT-SEA]

First time we have had actual rain this year.

[MossMan]

53 in Bellingham! 11 in Moses Lake!

46 here.

[Chewbacca Defense]

Wow, the wind kicked up here in Bellingham rather suddenly between 6:30 and 7, and the temp went from 40-54 at my place in the span of an hour.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

37 and cloudy here, you can feel in the air this chapter of winter is closed.

[Jesse]

37 and cloudy here, you can feel in the air this chapter of winter is closed.

You should write about this in you're blog

[Deweydog]

Pretty sky this morning.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

You should write about this in you're blog

 

Right after my post about online bullying on weather forums.