December 2022 Observations and Discussion

[Hoosier]

This progged trough out west is extremely impressive on the 12z Euro.  Just a massive area of low heights. 

Look at the height anomalies.

[Tom]

5 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

This progged trough out west is extremely impressive on the 12z Euro.  Just a massive area of low heights. 

Look at the height anomalies.

It should correct East in due time…known bias of the Euro…

[gabel23]

Can someone post the Kuchera snow map off the Euro? 

[Hoosier]

12 minutes ago, Tom said:

It should correct East in due time…known bias of the Euro…

Quite possible.  I was astonished when I saw that run and just had to post that map.  

Overall, this is the best pre-Christmas potential anywhere in the Midwest in many years.  Maybe back to that 2009 storm or the big 2004 storm that targeted the OV/eastern Lakes.  Hopefully potential makes reality.

[tStacsh]

lol.  This is a good day to not put any stock in any model right now.  

[Niko]

Some much needed rainfall heading for mby late tomorrow and into the early parts of Thursday. I could be looking at more than 0.5" of rainfall, which is really good news. There is also a "Gale Watch." Some flurries could be flying around on Friday, which will tend to put people in the festive mood.

[gabel23]

Comparing what's being shown by the Euro to one of the coldest outbreak in recorded history the Dec. 1983 cold outbreak. Look similar??

[CentralNebWeather]

4 minutes ago, gabel23 said:

Comparing what's being shown by the Euro to one of the coldest outbreak in recorded history the Dec. 1983 cold outbreak. Look similar??

Just need to get a snowpack around here first. 

[gabel23]

For those interested, here is a winter forecast that was put out by Dean Wysoski using Gary Lezak and his LRC. Gary actually came on the show and gave a little info about this years pattern. He is so hush hush about it though b/c you have to pay for the info! 50 dollars a month or 300 dollars a year. 

https://www.facebook.com/watch/live/?ref=watch_permalink&v=1306195356780007

 

[OmahaSnowFan]

Yikes

[Hoosier]

Even the less amplified/northern stream dominant 18z GFS manages to produce a decent system right before Christmas.  

[Hawkeye]

11 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Even the less amplified/northern stream dominant 18z GFS manages to produce a decent system right before Christmas.  

This scenario is my biggest concern.  We need the trough to dig much farther west.

[Hoosier]

41 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

This scenario is my biggest concern.  We need the trough to dig much farther west.

The GFS has tended to be too far east with troughs in the longer range in the past.  Of course who the hell knows about the biases now with the latest "upgrade"

[Andie]

Woah, I remember that cold outbreak in 1983!
My retired dad and I were at my plant replacing circulation pumps in 5* weather to keep them from freezing a couple miles of 3” carbon steel pipes.  

Everyone had the flu and couldn’t get out of bed. Even the stock tank froze and I could walk on it.  That’s 35 miles south of Dallas! 
Hell of a cold front! 
We went home and my dad came down with the flu.  I was left on my own.
 

[jaster220]

6 hours ago, jaster220 said:

 

Just hoping the GFS and its hard cut runs are out to lunch and will correct as we go along.

Welp. That hope lasted all of 1 hr - thanks Euro

5 hours ago, Tom said:

0z GEFS jumping on the idea of a big Snow from KS/MO up through the Lower Lakes region....

Through Christmas...

Sorry, but there is nothing about that map indicating a big snow in the Lwr Lakes.

[jaster220]

5 hours ago, bud2380 said:

Yeah, not a great run for this area of the country on the Euro.  But a pretty huge change from yesterday.  The Euro dropped the Monday system altogether and as mentioned shifted well north with a large warm nose out in front of the system, so brings rain instead of snow to most of IL, eastern IA and southern WI.  However, it does hold back some energy and you can see that ejecting out at hour 240 which appears would be a heavy snow producer for many of the areas that miss out on the lead wave.  Lots of possibilities yet. 

You were batting 1.000 until the bolded part. Just remember this sequence in the prior cycle. Strong SLP for the midwest which was followed by a much tamer SLP running up towards NWOH-KTOL. First one brought  brought @Clinton like 2+" of rain, followed by the "chump change" system that delivered less than 1/2" here. Presuming this cycle follows a similar pattern that 2nd system that's a bit too far out to get a firm picture of, will continue to shrink as the 1st big storm steals all the energy. Bliz in the middle of the country, followed by token snows further east. Despite what @Tom and others are implying, modeled snowfall around Chicago and Detroit are stubbornly not on the increase beyond "noise level" fluctuations of an inch or two. Talking about the Ensemble Mean type maps, not the one-off Control or Operational maps. 

[Clinton]

Bastardi loves the cold but he did share a cool analog today.

Mind Boggling Analog

How serious is this? The chart below shows the 500 mb anomalies 4 days before the core of the legendary 1983,1985,1989,2021 outbreaks hit

euro ensemble right on top of it day 9

gefs quicker

 

euro operational feeding back in rockies too much but is the most severe option though a day or two slower as alot of snow and ice would be laid down in Texas

what an anomaly and reality front!

[Hoosier]

1 hour ago, jaster220 said:

You were batting 1.000 until the bolded part. Just remember this sequence in the prior cycle. Strong SLP for the midwest which was followed by a much tamer SLP running up towards NWOH-KTOL. First one brought  brought @Clinton like 2+" of rain, followed by the "chump change" system that delivered less than 1/2" here. Presuming this cycle follows a similar pattern that 2nd system that's a bit too far out to get a firm picture of, will continue to shrink as the 1st big storm steals all the energy. Bliz in the middle of the country, followed by token snows further east. Despite what @Tom and others are implying, modeled snowfall around Chicago and Detroit are stubbornly not on the increase beyond "noise level" fluctuations of an inch or two. Talking about the Ensemble Mean type maps, not the one-off Control or Operational maps. 

Usually you're not going to see huge snow amounts on an ensemble mean out around day 10.  Too many individual ensemble members producing too many different outcomes for a particular location. 

A good chunk of what is modeled on this map that Tom originally posted is probably from the current system.  Get this thing out of the way and it probably won't look as snowy up north.  And hopefully will gradually trend snowier for us in the coming days.

[jaster220]

3 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Even the less amplified/northern stream dominant 18z GFS manages to produce a decent system right before Christmas.  

But this soooooooo unrealistic. Like a Mega CF from a Sci-Fi flick

2 hours ago, Hoosier said:

The GFS has tended to be too far east with troughs in the longer range in the past.  Of course who the hell knows about the biases now with the latest "upgrade"

Do you think it is too far East?

[Hoosier]

13 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

But this soooooooo unrealistic. Like a Mega CF from a Sci-Fi flick

Do you think it is too far East?

I'll let ya know in about 8 days.  

Seriously though, in a general sense, I wouldn't be surprised if the trough progression (and thus cold air dump) happens slower than what the GFS is depicting.

I'm excited about the potential.  In part because there's a high ceiling in this pattern and also because of the timing just in time for Christmas.

[Iceresistance]

13 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

I'll let ya know in about 8 days.  

Seriously though, in a general sense, I wouldn't be surprised if the trough progression (and thus cold air dump) happens slower than what the GFS is depicting.

I'm excited about the potential.  In part because there's a high ceiling in this pattern and also because of the timing just in time for Christmas.

And then I get DUMPED!

[jaster220]

5 minutes ago, sumweatherdude said:

Not sure what will happen, but kind of amazing that most on here had already agreed on a 59-60 day cycle, and this storm is coming through exactly 59 days after the October version.  Lots of comments back then about how that storm would become a great snowstorm once winter arrived.

I think the models are in that stage when they go ballistic with the most dynamic outcome possible. In this case bundling all the energy into one storm/event. If I'm correct, at some point @Tom will come in with the morning report saying something to the effect of "looks like the GFS is now hanging back a piece of energy which follows the main storm and brings consolation snows to @jaster220 @Niko, and @chances14". Just a matter of time. Clock is ticking til we see that post. 

[Iceresistance]

3 minutes ago, sumweatherdude said:

The NAM is currently predicting 17 inches of snow for central Wisconsin over the next 84 hours.  The national weather service in that area is predicting 3-4 inches at most.  

 

That area got NAMed! Lol

[jaster220]

10 hours ago, tStacsh said:

I suggest @jaster220 to not look at the latest GFS model run...

Haha. Not sure which run that would've been when you posted this. Guessing that 12z run which shows a storm of unprecedented intensity in the annals of Detroit's wx records. Yeah, a real sweet run if it weren't so LOLz worthy.  

[jaster220]

6 minutes ago, sumweatherdude said:

The NAM is currently predicting 17 inches of snow for central Wisconsin over the next 84 hours.  The national weather service in that area is predicting 3-4 inches at most.  

 

Might be a very fine line on this one where the models are challenged with the flip over to/between rain/sleet/snow. Some going more snow than they should be (or counting sleet as snow). I'm sure the NWS is seeing the consensus is much lower. Still, it is a dynamic situation and I could see someone scoring a very sweet surprise. 

[jaster220]

48 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Usually you're not going to see huge snow amounts on an ensemble mean out around day 10.  Too many individual ensemble members producing too many different outcomes for a particular location. 

A good chunk of what is modeled on this map that Tom originally posted is probably from the current system.  Get this thing out of the way and it probably won't look as snowy up north.  And hopefully will gradually trend snowier for us in the coming days.

So, in a nutshell, I'm right then it is not showing much. I do see a little more just SW of @Clinton that looks good fwiw. Btw, Beavis missing you over there..

[Hoosier]

22 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

Btw, Beavis missing you over there..

7 more days...

[jaster220]

14 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

7 more days...

12z CMC had a colder N stream dominant event. Basically a strong Clipper getting me 5". I'd almost rather have that scenario knowing how often the strong S stream storms screw this area over historically. Like you said, nice to at least have a potential like this to follow, especially for the holidays and with Dec's being such losers lately. 

[gabel23]

This is the lowest I have ever seen the AO. The last time in my recording history it's been this low was just a couple years back. We got down to -33 that mid Feb..; granted we also had a 15" snow depth. Just hope we have some snow down stream before this arctic shot comes. 

[winterfreak]

GFS and CMC have both lost the Xmas storm for this sub for the most part at the moment. 

[Stacsh]

9 minutes ago, winterfreak said:

GFS and CMC have both lost the Xmas storm for this sub for the most part at the moment. 

Never got my hopes up.  It’s inevitable.  Just a possible strong cold front.  The models are a joke over 3 days.  Fun to watch. But never come to fruition.  I really feel the models are worse than they were 10 years ago in the long range.  

[Hoosier]

CMC dumps pretty good on jaster's area and into OH.

[bud2380]

Both the GFS and Canadian show more than enough for a white Christmas around these parts. But the storm looks far different. The only consistency in the models at this point is the idea of a storm. I’m sure it’ll be a few more days before any consistency develops. The latest trend is for a stronger northern stream of energy. 

[Andie]

Our severe weather this morning was more active than first thought. 
The NWS said Tuesday afternoon that video and eyewitness evidence led to forecasters confirming five tornadoes with another 12 reports under investigation.

I knew it was bad but this exceeds anything we’ve had in ages.  A good deal of damage across DFW and northward toward Red River. 

[Hawkeye]

And now the storm is gone on the Euro, too.  It's doing the same thing as the GFS & GDPS, just rocketing a strong front across the northern US.  No digging, no storm.  

[Clinton]

Not sure why but it seems anytime artic air is involved causes mayhem with the models.  The GEFS members are not taking the bait with a strong northern stream system.  Panhandle hook still remains the long range idea.

  

[westMJim]

There was not much of a temperature spread yesterday with the official H/L of 34/30 there was no rain/snow but the sun did come out for a brief visit and a reported 1% of possible sunshine was reported. The overnight low in MBT was 30 and at the current time it is 32 with cloudy skies. For today the average H/L is 36/25. The record high of 59 was recorded in 1975 and 2015 the record low of -1 was recorded in 1907 and the largest snow fall of 5.7” was in 1907. 

It looks to be on the rather wet side today and tonight with highs today and tomorrow near 40 and lows tonight in the lower 30’s it also could get a little breezy with winds gusting as high as the mid 30MPH. It still looks to get colder over the weekend and into the start of next week. There is a chance of some snow over the weekend, but I am not sure if we will really see all that much. Much of next week looks to be below average temperature wise but also very dry. At this time, I am not sure if a White Christmas can be guaranteed as the snow fall looks to be spotty.

[Tom]

It's a COLD morning here in the deserts....the wx reporting station that I typically go by is right next to the pond (37F) which skews the temps a bit bc of the warmer waters.  There are tons of ducks, geese and birds that all come here to take a break or eat food from the locals.

The temp just dipped down to a very chilly 33F...

[MIKEKC]

7 hours ago, Stacsh said:

Never got my hopes up.  It’s inevitable.  Just a possible strong cold front.  The models are a joke over 3 days.  Fun to watch. But never come to fruition.  I really feel the models are worse than they were 10 years ago in the long range.  

I agree some of the time, but, the current storm that just blasted the northern plains and gave KC 1.25 inches rain yesterday has been modeled on the GFS for 8+ days. 

I wouldn't give up  on next week's storm later in the week, the data likely will show that storm again. (at least I'm hoping it does) Fits the LRC to have a major storm around 10 days following Monday/Tuesday's storm this week. 

If it doesn't, well, we all might be quite bored. 

[chescowxman]

Another chilly day today before clouds increase and snow and or sleet begin right after rush hour tomorrow morning. The NWS has a Winter Weather Advisory up for the area...but still some differences in forecasted snow totals. Best bet is up to 1" of snow....with more the further north and west you go. We should then see a quick change over to a wind swept heavy rain by early afternoon. Stay tuned for later updates.

The record high for today is 65.3 degrees from 2015. The record low is the 4 above zero from 1989. Daily rain record is 2.06" from 1897. Daily snow record is the 8.7" that fell today in 1917.