Slushy Inch Posted December 5, 2022 Report Share Posted December 5, 2022 Just now, RentonHillTC said: I also have a question for the high counceel: how do typical PNW setups/progressions differ between nina/nino, if at all? I don't know about progressions. I do know La'nina is supposed to be more influential after new year's, and there isn't much variance in Summer. For the setup/patterns, you can look up a picture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kolk1604 Posted December 5, 2022 Report Share Posted December 5, 2022 6 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said: If the GFS was believable, I wonder if the NFL would start making contingency Plans Pretty serious snow Saturday and Sunday 1 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubus Leucodermis Posted December 5, 2022 Report Share Posted December 5, 2022 Light snow. Temp 35°F, DP 31. 1 1 1 It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted December 5, 2022 Report Share Posted December 5, 2022 2 minutes ago, 12345WeatherNerd said: I don't know about progressions. I do know La'nina is supposed to be more influential after new year's, and there isn't much variance in Summer. For the setup/patterns, you can look up a picture. I mean i know what the typical season-long picture looks like. But for the different types of snow patterns for our lowlands that Dewey and others have laid out, are any of those more or less likely to occur during one background state or the other? IDk the answer is probably no but I was just curious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slushy Inch Posted December 5, 2022 Report Share Posted December 5, 2022 Looks close to 1996 redux for Seattle on 18z GFS... 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 5, 2022 Report Share Posted December 5, 2022 2 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said: If the GFS was believable, I wonder if the NFL would start making contingency Plans Pretty serious snow Saturday and Sunday At least the ECMWF shows the game might be able to be played in Seattle on Sunday... maybe. 4 1 **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doinko Posted December 5, 2022 Report Share Posted December 5, 2022 8 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said: Yep looks about right. Average winter weather in the GFS world. 12z Euro is also in the GFS world 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted December 5, 2022 Report Share Posted December 5, 2022 2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: At least the ECMWF shows the game might be able to be played in Seattle on Sunday... maybe. "white out" conditions. amazing! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North_County Posted December 5, 2022 Report Share Posted December 5, 2022 Just now, Doinko said: 12z Euro is also in the GFS world So, when do we start telling people.....? 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post RCola Posted December 5, 2022 Popular Post Report Share Posted December 5, 2022 Always surprised when the majority of us swear off the GFS after it fumbles our snow plans, only to indulge in beautiful 18z GFS 100+ hour snow maps a week later. Weenies gonna weenie, I love it. Encouraging signs for sure in the 500 mb pattern. Definite improvement in the main models and ensembles for the next week or so. But, we've been here before with watering down cold, so I'd be cautious. I think BC is a slam dunk in this pattern for cold or snow or both. 9 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubus Leucodermis Posted December 5, 2022 Report Share Posted December 5, 2022 4 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said: Light snow. Temp 35°F, DP 31. Short-lived flurry. All over. 2 It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted December 5, 2022 Report Share Posted December 5, 2022 9 minutes ago, 12345WeatherNerd said: The average snowfall is 6 or so inches at SeaTac because the crazy winters balance out all the pathetic ones! Long term mean is actually a little over 10" at SEA, and should be a little higher but they're missing some data from the mid 1990s to early 2000s. 2 A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slushy Inch Posted December 5, 2022 Report Share Posted December 5, 2022 1 minute ago, RentonHillTC said: I mean i know what the typical season-long picture looks like. But for the different types of snow patterns for our lowlands that Dewey and others have laid out, are any of those more or less likely to occur during one background state or the other? IDk the answer is probably no but I was just curious. I don't think so, a La'nina type pattern is needed in any snow event; to get the cold air in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted December 5, 2022 Report Share Posted December 5, 2022 Man the icon has a crazy warm bias. This no doubt a snow event for Puget sound. 5 1 1 We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doinko Posted December 5, 2022 Report Share Posted December 5, 2022 1 minute ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said: Man the icon has a crazy warm bias. This no doubt a snow event for Puget sound. Just a bit south would be nice! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slushy Inch Posted December 5, 2022 Report Share Posted December 5, 2022 2 minutes ago, RCola said: Always surprised when the majority of us swear off the GFS after it fumbles our snow plans, only to indulge in beautiful 18z GFS 100+ hour snow maps a week later. Weenies gonna weenie, I love it. Encouraging signs for sure in the 500 mb pattern. Definite improvement in the main models and ensembles for the next week or so. But, we've been here before with watering down cold, so I'd be cautious. I think BC is a slam dunk in this pattern for cold or snow or both. It's pretty close to Euro right now! EPS has 1.5 inches for SEA around the 10th or 11th. GFS had been meh until now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phishy Wx Posted December 5, 2022 Report Share Posted December 5, 2022 26, been cloudy and flurry-y all day 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kolk1604 Posted December 5, 2022 Report Share Posted December 5, 2022 6 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: At least the ECMWF shows the game might be able to be played in Seattle on Sunday... maybe. ...for now 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slushy Inch Posted December 5, 2022 Report Share Posted December 5, 2022 2 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said: Man the icon has a crazy warm bias. This no doubt a snow event for Puget sound. No kidding! GEM has that problem too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCola Posted December 5, 2022 Report Share Posted December 5, 2022 2 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said: Man the icon has a crazy warm bias. This no doubt a snow event for Puget sound. It'd be an interesting experiment to run the ICON with initial conditions like 1950, 1996, 2008, etc., and just see what it would output. That'd be incredibly telling. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 5, 2022 Report Share Posted December 5, 2022 Just now, Kolk1604 said: ...for now Very true! **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted December 5, 2022 Report Share Posted December 5, 2022 3 minutes ago, Doinko said: Just a bit south would be nice! Could happen, this low placement is far from resolved! 2 We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doinko Posted December 5, 2022 Report Share Posted December 5, 2022 Just now, MR.SNOWMIZER said: Could happen, this low placement is far from resolved! Yeah, the Euro takes it to Vancouver island, the 12z GFS took it to Newport. Maybe it'll take a good track for most of us! Or a wind event maybe. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LowerGarfield Posted December 5, 2022 Report Share Posted December 5, 2022 31 degrees right now. Probably past the peak warmth of the day and likely subfreezing. Tomorrow will be above freezing here so I don't expect the snow to last. But it's been a good day even if modest. 1 Garfield County/Pomeroy, WA: 2023-2024 Snowfall totals: 14.3 inches HIghest snow total (per event): 5.8 inches total 1/11/24 - 1/12/24. Most recent accumulation (non trace): 0.20 inches on 2/26/24 Days with trace or more snowfall: 12/01/23 (0.60), 1/8/24 (1.0), 1/10/24 (3.5), 1/11/23 (3.5 inches with Thundersnow; separate event from prior day), 1/12/24 (2.30). 1/14/24 (T), 1/17/24 (1.20 inches), 1/18/24 (1.5 inches), 1/19/24 (0.20), 2/09/24 (0.30), 2/26/24 (0.20-mainly graupel), 4/5/24 (T) First Freeze: 10/27/2023 Last Sub freezing Day: 1/20/24 (12th) (8 days in a row from 1/12/24-1/20/24) Coldest low: -12F (!!!!!!!!) (1/12/24) Last White Christmas: 2022 at my location (on ground) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCola Posted December 5, 2022 Report Share Posted December 5, 2022 6 minutes ago, 12345WeatherNerd said: It's pretty close to Euro right now! EPS has 1.5 inches for SEA around the 10th or 11th. GFS had been meh until now. The 500mb pattern between the two is definitely in pretty good agreement, for now. We haven't gotten into that 5 day window where the two will inevitably be at odds with each other over something significant. As much as I'd like to, I just don't trust the GFS low-level precip type parameterizations right now. In the past week, I do believe the GFS has led the way on the amount of precip we've received, but it leaves a lot to be desired when it comes to precip type. If you combine GFS precip with the way the Euro handles precip type, I bet you'd be closer to the truth. Time will tell. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterdog Posted December 5, 2022 Report Share Posted December 5, 2022 30 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said: Same model, same joke, different time. 3 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phishy Wx Posted December 5, 2022 Report Share Posted December 5, 2022 KGEG running -11.5 for December so far after November finished -7.8 for the month snow depth is currently 8" 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poulsbo Snowman Posted December 5, 2022 Report Share Posted December 5, 2022 20 minutes ago, RCola said: The 500mb pattern between the two is definitely in pretty good agreement, for now. We haven't gotten into that 5 day window where the two will inevitably be at odds with each other over something significant. As much as I'd like to, I just don't trust the GFS low-level precip type parameterizations right now. In the past week, I do believe the GFS has led the way on the amount of precip we've received, but it leaves a lot to be desired when it comes to precip type. If you combine GFS precip with the way the Euro handles precip type, I bet you'd be closer to the truth. Time will tell. If either the GFS or the Euro were accurate, I would have 10 inches plus of snow. Factually, I have zero. Most of what snowed melted on contact. Must be the warm roads. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gummy Posted December 5, 2022 Report Share Posted December 5, 2022 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Requiem Posted December 5, 2022 Report Share Posted December 5, 2022 1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: We had a ton of snow and then our worst ice storm of my lifetime until February 2021. I don't know if you guys who didn't experience understand how FU*KED up that ice storm was. It was like the whole area got hit by a tornado that stripped every tree. February 2021 and 12/8/2016 were the worst ice storms I can recall locally. Never seen the amount of tree damage the former caused from any weather event I've experienced. 4 "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gusky Posted December 5, 2022 Report Share Posted December 5, 2022 6 minutes ago, Gummy said: They fixed it!!! (Kinda... was definitely more than 0.1" but at least now it's measurable.) 4 My Weather Station: https://ambientweather.net/dashboard/b415ff35b2d13f00c899051028f04466 Located in North Seattle, elevation ~150ft. Highest temperature ever recorded is 110.3, lowest is 14.5. My Twitter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Requiem Posted December 5, 2022 Report Share Posted December 5, 2022 1 hour ago, Olive1010 said: Yeah that 12-15 day span is high That is essentially one entire 384 hour model run at that point just say the run was pretty good 1 "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joelgombiner Posted December 5, 2022 Report Share Posted December 5, 2022 Big expansion in western snow cover over the last month. First image is Nov 5 and second is Dec 5 (today). 5 1 2 Useful weather links Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post MR.SNOWMIZER Posted December 5, 2022 Popular Post Report Share Posted December 5, 2022 Something big is coming. Extreme.. 11 2 We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted December 5, 2022 Report Share Posted December 5, 2022 Something like 1880 with today's population would be absolute insanity. The thought of a widespread 3-5ft on the ground is nutty. 6 3 We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 5, 2022 Report Share Posted December 5, 2022 Just now, MR.SNOWMIZER said: Something like 1880 with today's population would be absolute insanity. The thought of a widespread 3-5ft on the ground is nutty. I have often thought about that as well. Sort of scary. 4 1 **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherGeek2022 Posted December 5, 2022 Report Share Posted December 5, 2022 4 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said: Something big is coming. Extreme.. Once in a lifetime event plz 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest administrator Posted December 5, 2022 Report Share Posted December 5, 2022 Just now, TT-SEA said: I have often thought about that as well. Sort of scary. Big snow storm, followed by an icing, then a gale, then a flash freeze, then more snow, then brutal cold, then more snow, then I wake up and realize that this fantasy exists on the shores of Labrador. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted December 5, 2022 Report Share Posted December 5, 2022 1 minute ago, TT-SEA said: I have often thought about that as well. Sort of scary. And i believe this area is still capable of something like that. It honestly would be to deadly to hope something like that happens. The local economy would really take a hit. 3 We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snownerd3000 Posted December 5, 2022 Report Share Posted December 5, 2022 3 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said: Something like 1880 with today's population would be absolute insanity. The thought of a widespread 3-5ft on the ground is nutty. Its coming 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts