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PNW December 2022, winter might be coming; but mostly canceled.


The Blob

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1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

By Christmas Day... 

gfs-deterministic-washington-total_snow_kuchera-1991200 (1).png

I feel like what they meant by “upgrading” the GFS is that they upgraded the amount of GooFuS in it.

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2023 - 2024 Cold Season Stats

Total Snowfall - 0.75”

Max Snow Depth - 0.5”

Coldest High Temp - 21 (Jan 13)

Coldest Low Temp - 9 (Jan 13)

Number of Freezes - 51

Sub-40 highs - 12

Highs 32 or lower - 3

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2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I can tell the GEM must be very snowy also just from the 500mb and 850s.

I guess its snowy.    But not 3 to 4 feet in Seattle snowy. 

gem-all-washington-total_snow_kuchera-1753600.png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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5 minutes ago, Dave said:

I found a neighborhood above Oakridge of about 20-25 homes. 2400ft. Might be worth checking out.

Gonna need to be higher than that for this. 😜

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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2 minutes ago, Doinko said:

Does anyone have sleet/ice maps for this run?

Updated GFS snow map through Christmas night as Seattle approaches 40 inches... and sleet/ice through same time.

gfs-deterministic-washington-total_snow_kuchera-2012800.png

gfs-deterministic-washington-frzr_total-2012800.png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Just now, 12345WeatherNerd said:

Sorry Oregon, just had to zoom in to get a better idea of the totals.1672012800-LhmJxDLolDs.png

No worries, there isn’t anything down here to look at. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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38 minutes ago, lowlandsnow said:

Unfortunately, terrible from Portland south but not bad for WA

 

I'll believe it when I see it for my location. Except for the day after Halloween, which was a surprise - my location  this year is where snow holes form and warm noses thrive. Already losing out on snow chances on Sunday but I've tried not getting too bummed.

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Garfield County/Pomeroy, WA:

2023-2024 Snowfall totals: 14.3 inches

HIghest snow total (per event): 5.8 inches total 1/11/24 - 1/12/24.

Most recent accumulation (non trace): 0.20 inches on 2/26/24

Days with  trace or more snowfall: 12/01/23 (0.60), 1/8/24 (1.0), 1/10/24 (3.5), 1/11/23 (3.5 inches with Thundersnow; separate event from prior day), 1/12/24 (2.30). 1/14/24 (T), 1/17/24 (1.20 inches), 1/18/24 (1.5 inches), 1/19/24 (0.20), 2/09/24 (0.30), 2/26/24 (0.20-mainly graupel), 4/5/24 (T)

First Freeze: 10/27/2023

Last Sub freezing Day: 1/20/24 (12th) (8 days in a row from 1/12/24-1/20/24)

Coldest low: -12F (!!!!!!!!) (1/12/24)

Last White Christmas: 2022 at my location (on ground)

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4 minutes ago, 12345WeatherNerd said:

1996 redux for Seattle but more snow. Roof collapses for sure in this scenario.gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_54.png

Remember last week when the GFS had us wondering if the NFL should come up with a contingency plan for the Seahawks game yesterday.  ;)

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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2 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

I’m actually more worried for folks in the PS than anything else. Could be a dangerous situation up there and they’ll need our thoughts, prayers and financial contributions.

Sure have to hope the GFS's impressive string of nailing surface details from afar finally runs out with this.

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39 minutes ago, Timmy said:

:(

DBBF4950-22B7-40DB-B3B2-C23F9B4D6B7B.png

There's my warm nose on the Palouse. 

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Garfield County/Pomeroy, WA:

2023-2024 Snowfall totals: 14.3 inches

HIghest snow total (per event): 5.8 inches total 1/11/24 - 1/12/24.

Most recent accumulation (non trace): 0.20 inches on 2/26/24

Days with  trace or more snowfall: 12/01/23 (0.60), 1/8/24 (1.0), 1/10/24 (3.5), 1/11/23 (3.5 inches with Thundersnow; separate event from prior day), 1/12/24 (2.30). 1/14/24 (T), 1/17/24 (1.20 inches), 1/18/24 (1.5 inches), 1/19/24 (0.20), 2/09/24 (0.30), 2/26/24 (0.20-mainly graupel), 4/5/24 (T)

First Freeze: 10/27/2023

Last Sub freezing Day: 1/20/24 (12th) (8 days in a row from 1/12/24-1/20/24)

Coldest low: -12F (!!!!!!!!) (1/12/24)

Last White Christmas: 2022 at my location (on ground)

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Gfs ensembles still not really on board at all. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Gfs ensembles still not really on board at all. 

What I find even more confusing is that the EPS and GEFS have been showing the troughing being shoved east early next week while the operational runs have it continually reforming to the north and west.    Literally no idea what is going happen.  

gfs-ensemble-all-avg-namer-z500_anom-1580800.png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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12 minutes ago, Cloud said:

And almost 2ft snow depth! What a shellacking!

Good thing I serviced my generator last weekend…

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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Just now, TT-SEA said:

What I find even more confusing is that the EPS and GEFS have been showing the troughing being shoved east early next week while the operational runs have it continually reforming to the north and west.    Literally no idea what is going happen.  

gfs-ensemble-all-avg-namer-z500_anom-1580800.png

That looks chilly at the surface which would be nice

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