PNW December 2022 - Part II

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Snow is deep here. Between 20 and 28 inches, very deep for this early.  We hit 38 degrees today but should get back below freezing tonight and stay cold the rest of the week. Very rare to almost be 40 degrees here at 3500ft near the Canadian border in late December,  this storm has some very warm air.

[JSnowlin]

11 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

The winds are not coming from the storm that passed to the south... the wind in Seattle will come this evening with the trough passage and arrival of cold air aloft.  

Dude, even NCEP/WPC f***ed up on this. 

The main low was forecast to move ashore just north of La Push, instead we have a shitty surface low near Astoria and degraded upper low north of Neah Bay. I don't see sustained 40 mph w/gusts to 55mph in the central sound from an upper trough passage.

The bent back occlusion is even weaker.

This is yet another fail in as many weeks by SEW for a storm that IMHO, won't really amount to much for anyone between Marysville and Tumwater. 

[Forum Admin]

Caught COVID from MiL. Spending this pleasant storm inside while struggling to stay awake.

[joelgombiner]

Just now, Forum Admin said:

Caught COVID from MiL. Spending this pleasant storm inside while struggling to stay awake.

Hope your air pressure and your immune system bounce back ASAP! 

[Slushy Inch]

I'm ready for the lawn chair tipped over memes for Seattle!

[JSnowlin]

20 minutes ago, joelgombiner said:

They actually just increased the maximum gusts to 60 MPH on the latest warning.  Getting breezier here.

I find it interesting that the point forecast for my location only calls for gusts to 39. This is often the case where the wind speeds/precip amounts in a warning message does not match the point forecast for the location. 

I ain't buying what they're selling. 

[Slushy Inch]

25 minutes ago, joelgombiner said:

They actually just increased the maximum gusts to 60 MPH on the latest warning.  Getting breezier here.

I find it interesting that the point forecast for my location only calls for gusts to 39. This is often the case where the wind speeds/precip amounts in a warning message does not match the point forecast for the location. 

That happens for every windstorm around here.

[CliffMassYelledAtMe]

12 minutes ago, JSnowlin said:

Dude, even NCEP/WPC f***ed up on this. 

The main low was forecast to move ashore just north of La Push, instead we have a shitty surface low near Astoria and degraded upper low north of Neah Bay. I don't see sustained 40 mph w/gusts to 55mph in the central sound from an upper trough passage.

The bent back occlusion is even weaker.

This is yet another fail in as many weeks by SEW for a storm that IMHO, won't really amount to much for anyone between Marysville and Tumwater. 

The southern low that is so well-defined on radar is a surface low and was never predicted to bring big wind to the Puget Sound corridor, even though it looks impressive. That wad the wind for OR.  The upper level low that has yet to come ashore and should be coming in to the north near southern Vancouver Island seems delayed. It is the one that was (is?) going to bring wind to Puget Sound. 

Also JAYA said it is a weird one and he hadn't seen anything like it in 30 years of experience. Not our typical wind maker. He said to watch gradients rather than models or radar because it is so unusual.

Hard to pin this on NWS folks when retired guy says he doesn't have experience with this either.

[Slushy Inch]

High winds moving towards Olympia currently. 

 

[joelgombiner]

Just now, 12345WeatherNerd said:

That happens for every windstorm around here.

Theoretically the point forecast should take into account sheltering from topography and be more accurate, but I'm not sure how a point forecast is generated or what it represents. If I want to get the "NWS forecast for my location", I never know whether I should be looking at zone, point, hourly, AFD, or warning messages. Seems like another case of bureaucracy obscuring the truth and hedging their bets. If one forecast busts, they can always point to another one of their products. In my opinion, they should have a unified forecast message that they stand behind and communicate unambiguously. 

[Slushy Inch]

5 minutes ago, CliffMassYelledAtMe said:

The southern low that is so well-defined on radar is a surface low and was never predicted to bring big wind to the Puget Sound corridor, even though it looks impressive. That wad the wind for OR.  The upper level low that has yet to come ashore and should be coming in to the north near southern Vancouver Island seems delayed. It is the one that was (is?) going to bring wind to Puget Sound. 

Also JAYA said it is a weird one and he hadn't seen anything like it in 30 years of experience. Not our typical wind maker. He said to watch gradients rather than models or radar because it is so unusual.

Hard to pin this on NWS folks when retired guy says he doesn't have experience with this either.

A low pressure missing us to our south is unheard of?

[MWG]

Nice! we aren't torching in the first week of January lol

[CliffMassYelledAtMe]

2 minutes ago, 12345WeatherNerd said:

A low pressure missing us to our south is unheard of?

No. The particular set up of a developing surface low to the south and the mature upper level low to the north. Their interaction with the occluded front has made forecasting the particular details difficult. It's about how these two lows at different levels are interacting that they aren't exactly sure what is going to occur. They haven't seen it play out before. 

[NWbyNW]

The surf has crossed the  breakers at Westport!  Truly impressive storm watching from their live camera!  The road leading out to the spit is completely covered in water and people are still driving it! 

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

41 minutes ago, joelgombiner said:

The NWS has a point forecast, a zone forecast, an hourly graphical forecast, and sometimes a warning message forecast. None of these forecasts ever match each other. 

Point forecasts here are awful sometimes.  I've seen a forecast of 53 degrees where it ended up at 39 and then the next week it said rain and 43.  We had a WSW in the zone forecast, which was right.  Had a high of 28.  

In winter they are usually too warm by 5+ degrees, and have areas that are almost always warmer than us as being cooler.

 

 

[NWbyNW]

A snow tornado has been confirmed in Idaho.  There is even video of it as it crossed the highway at Fish Creek Summit.  No damage reported. Idaho Statesman

 

[fubario]

4 minutes ago, NWbyNW said:

The surf has crossed the  breakers at Westport!  Truly impressive storm watching from their live camera!  The road leading out to the spit is completely covered in water and people are still driving it! 

1509241964_ScreenRecording2022-12-27at3_50_26PM.mov

got to westport about 11...very little wind. drove down to tokeland and wind really started whipping up. got back to westport and it was howling. was on the tower and could barely stand straight up. incredible.

[CliffMassYelledAtMe]

From JAYA's Twitter. Someone else posted something else earlier about the "stinger tail" but I can't find it at the moment.

[NWbyNW]

This wind event is turning into a nothing burger for the Puget Sound so far.  Models are showing it hasn't lived up to it's modeled potential at this time.   The strongest gust I can find so far is at Edmonds where it gusted too 29mph.   Sustained wind varies from single digits in the South Sound, to a little over 10mph in Snohomish County then drops to single digits in Skagit and Whatcom Counties. 

The storm did successfully wallop Oregon.  About 110,000 without power, and the coast got bopped.  The Washington Coast is now getting bopped, but inland, it has been a no-show so far. 

[CliffMassYelledAtMe]

And I fully admit I may be synthesisizing info incorrectly or may have missed something. But this does seem to be a complicated forecast and not something I am going to be pissed about as a "bust." People have had trees through their houses in OR. 

[Doinko]

Looks like there was some lightning around the coast range?

[WeatherGeek2022]

4 minutes ago, CliffMassYelledAtMe said:

And I fully admit I may be synthesisizing info incorrectly or may have missed something. But this does seem to be a complicated forecast and not something I am going to be pissed about as a "bust." People have had trees through their houses in OR. 

seems to be the move to either live at the coast for big windstorms or out east for big snowstorms

[awright-31]

Wind really starting to pick up in Olympia. A couple good gusts in the last 5 minutes

[NWbyNW]

One of the resorts in Westport has a camera pointed to the Pacific!  Looking at the massive swells is amazing how powerful nature is!  I mean look at the size of those waves with 50mph winds blowing in the cameras face!  

 

Two other webcams we see two diff thing.  First one, things have calmed significantly as seen by the Newport, Oregon marina cam.  It is wet, misty, and foggy now with occasional gusts, but the worst is over for them.

 

Currently holding the strongest wind gust in the Puget Sound at 29mph we have this camera at the Port of Edmonds.  We can see perfectly with this camera the darkness of the clouds rolling in from the south and towards the west.  It's going to get dark and much rainier. 

 

[GHweatherChris]

Getting gusty here.

[snow_wizard]

The gust to 104 at Three Corner Rock sounds kind of noteworthy today.

[snow_wizard]

22 minutes ago, CliffMassYelledAtMe said:

And I fully admit I may be synthesisizing info incorrectly or may have missed something. But this does seem to be a complicated forecast and not something I am going to be pissed about as a "bust." People have had trees through their houses in OR. 

But wind is so fun!!! 

[TT-SEA]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

But wind is so fun!!! 

I don't find cold to be very fun either!    Snow and 28-31 degrees is fun though.  

[snow_wizard]

18 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2022 said:

seems to be the move to either live at the coast for big windstorms or out east for big snowstorms

We can get both here.  Just last winter we had a nice snowfall, and some places have already this season as well.

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

I don't find cold to be very fun either!    Snow and 28-31 degrees is fun though.  

Fair point.  There was something about that really cold day last week that was pretty special though.  I could see getting tired of that if the wind didn't quit.

[GHweatherChris]

Something is definitely wrong with KHQM temp sensor, we had to go through Hoquiam today and drove out by the airport and my trucks temp sensor was showing 57-58 when KHQM was showing 70-72 just after 1 today.  Only got up to 52 here at home, temp down to 42 in the last 90 minutes.

[snow_wizard]

27 minutes ago, NWbyNW said:

This wind event is turning into a nothing burger for the Puget Sound so far.  Models are showing it hasn't lived up to it's modeled potential at this time.   The strongest gust I can find so far is at Edmonds where it gusted too 29mph.   Sustained wind varies from single digits in the South Sound, to a little over 10mph in Snohomish County then drops to single digits in Skagit and Whatcom Counties. 

The storm did successfully wallop Oregon.  About 110,000 without power, and the coast got bopped.  The Washington Coast is now getting bopped, but inland, it has been a no-show so far. 

The next few hours will get fairly impressive for the South and Central Sound.

[TT-SEA]

Just now, GHweatherChris said:

Something is definitely wrong with KHQM temp sensor, we had to go through Hoquiam today and drove out by the airport and my trucks temp sensor was showing 57-58 when KHQM was showing 70-72 just after 1 today.  Only got up to 52 here at home, temp down to 42 in the last 90 minutes.

You are going to have an awesome summer if Hoquiam is in the low 70s in late December!  

[snow_wizard]

Just now, GHweatherChris said:

Something is definitely wrong with KHQM temp sensor, we had to go through Hoquiam today and drove out by the airport and my trucks temp sensor was showing 57-58 when KHQM was showing 70-72 just after 1 today.  Only got up to 52 here at home, temp down to 42 in the last 90 minutes.

Yup.  I'm convinced it's whacked after today.  Yesterday I wasn't so sure.

[GHweatherChris]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

Yup.  I'm convinced it's whacked after today.  Yesterday I wasn't so sure.

Ya, perfect timing to be close enough to drive out there when it showed 70+.

[GHweatherChris]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

You are going to have an awesome summer if Hoquiam is in the low 70s in late December!  

Should be multiple 120+ days next summer, can't wait!!

[MossMan]

Looks like some heavy rain plowing down the strait headed right at me. 

[snow_wizard]

2 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Looks like the weekend could be mostly dry. Probably some nice AVERAGE weather. 

That's something we have had VERY little of in months.

[snow_wizard]

People who are bashing this event for the Puget Sound region need to take note of the timing shown on the models.  The peak time hasn't happened yet.  Give the track of the low I'm thinking there will be some gusts to 50 in places.  The biggest problem with this one is it has too much time to fill before it moved into the right position to really hit the Puget Sound super hard.

[GHweatherChris]

Interesting 850 temp contrast currently....

[snow_wizard]

I'm noticing a huge lack of posters from OR.  I hope it didn't get TOO bad down there.

[GHweatherChris]

Peak gusts so far, Westport 62, KHQM 55, KOLM 28.

[T-Town]

Getting gusty here now. No sea foam though. 

[joelgombiner]

 

[fubario]

this is a very interesting satellite loop. looks like main low crossing CA border to the north and moisture caught under upper level N winds and surface W/SW's winds? can one of you weather brainiacs explain what's going on here? lol

westport still howling, btw

 

Northwest IR Satellite | Department of Atmospheric Sciences (uw.edu) 

[Doinko]

3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I'm noticing a huge lack of posters from OR.  I hope it didn't get TOO bad down there.

I'm hearing that the power has been flickering all day back home with some outages earlier. Probably over 3" of rain in the past 2 days as well

[Slushy Inch]

6 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

People who are bashing this event for the Puget Sound region need to take note of the timing shown on the models.  The peak time hasn't happened yet.  Give the track of the low I'm thinking there will be some gusts to 50 in places.  The biggest problem with this one is it has too much time to fill before it moved into the right position to really hit the Puget Sound super hard.

Yeah, but the track hasn't been ideal for several days now.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

10 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I'm noticing a huge lack of posters from OR.  I hope it didn't get TOO bad down there.

Doing fine here. Power never even flickered. 46F and we have calmed down with some showers for now.

[GHweatherChris]

3 minutes ago, T-Town said:

Getting gusty here now. No sea foam though. 

[Doinko]

4 minutes ago, Doinko said:

I'm hearing that the power has been flickering all day back home with some outages earlier. Probably over 3" of rain in the past 2 days as well

Lots of outages back home