Brian_in_Leavenworth Posted November 15, 2017 Report Share Posted November 15, 2017 Ventrice tweeted earlier about the 12Z Euro. I done know how to put a tweet here, but he said "oday's 12Z ECMWF EPS 11-15d period forecast indicates a flip in the North America Pattern, driven by upstream changes in the North Pacific Jet & collapse of Greenland blocking. This change in pattern would shut down the arctic express. Uncertainty is still elevated, however" The map of 850 anomalies for that time showed normal 850's for WA, slight cool anomalies for Western Oregon, negative anomalies off the coast, and warm anomalies east of the Rockies. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted November 15, 2017 Report Share Posted November 15, 2017 2 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pscz1140 Posted November 15, 2017 Report Share Posted November 15, 2017 Last night's windstorm resulted in the worst power outage in Capitol Hill in at least a decade. I've never seen all the shops, bars, and restaurants on Broadway pitch black at dinnertime as far as the eye could see, and I've been in this neighborhood since 2003. So many sushi places must have lost their inventory. Oh the humanity.... I somehow lost only half the power in my apartment for a while (despite re-setting the circuit breakers a few times). Some outlets and lights worked and some didn't - I didn't even realize that was possible. I was still praising the heavens and celebrating my semi-good fortune compared to my immediate neighbors when I lost all power around 11:00. Took all my food out of the fridge and onto the balcony at 1:00 a.m. to rescue what I could. Nearly the exact moment I placed the last condiment bottle on the balcony the power came back on and I brought everything back inside. Also graded papers by flashlight for 1.5 hours after having a ladyfriend over in the dark. Wasn't the most relaxing of evenings, but certainly memorable. Was very impressed by the wind gusts up here. Trees were most bendy. 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted November 15, 2017 Report Share Posted November 15, 2017 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted November 15, 2017 Report Share Posted November 15, 2017 Ventrice tweeted earlier about the 12Z Euro. I done know how to put a tweet here, but he said "oday's 12Z ECMWF EPS 11-15d period forecast indicates a flip in the North America Pattern, driven by upstream changes in the North Pacific Jet & collapse of Greenland blocking. This change in pattern would shut down the arctic express. Uncertainty is still elevated, however" The map of 850 anomalies for that time showed normal 850's for WA, slight cool anomalies for Western Oregon, negative anomalies off the coast, and warm anomalies east of the Rockies.Hopefully it's mishandling the wavetrain out of Eurasia, but it wouldn't surprise me if there are short term vacillations in the NAM/PNA system until the bigger stuff arrives towards the holidays. But yeah, verbatim the 12z EPS develops a GOA trough and more +NAM. Scours out all of the Arctic air on our side of the pole. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted November 15, 2017 Report Share Posted November 15, 2017 Hope to see Moore posts like this.Lol, I knew someone would go there. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 15, 2017 Report Share Posted November 15, 2017 00Z GFS is holding tough on its dry solution for Saturday. Phil might be right about this pattern perfectly exposing the ECMWF cut-off bias. I was really expecting the GFS to move towards the very wet ECMWF solution today, but it shows basically what it showed last night for Saturday: Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted November 15, 2017 Report Share Posted November 15, 2017 Real shame about the model shift. The ski areas will suffer. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DareDuck Posted November 15, 2017 Report Share Posted November 15, 2017 Real shame about the model shift. The ski areas will suffer.Is warm rain shown? Quote Bend, ORElevation: 3550' Snow History:Nov: 1"Dec: .5"Jan: 1.9"Feb: 12.7"Mar: 1.0"Total: 17.1" 2016/2017: 70"2015/2016: 34"Average: ~25" 2017/2018 Winter TempsLowest Min: 1F on 2/23Lowest Max: 23F on 12/24, 2/22Lows <32: 87Highs <32: 13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted November 15, 2017 Report Share Posted November 15, 2017 The 00z ECMWF just made a huge correction towards the GFS solution in the near term. Not dragging rear quadrants and cutting off troughs like it was previously. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 15, 2017 Report Share Posted November 15, 2017 The 00z ECMWF just made a huge correction towards the GFS solution in the near term. Not dragging rear quadrants and cutting off troughs like it was previously. And just like that... the new ECMWF run totally agrees with the GFS for Saturday. Last night it showed 2-5 inches of rain over all of western WA just that day alone... now it shows almost nothing. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted November 15, 2017 Report Share Posted November 15, 2017 And just like that... the new ECMWF run totally agrees with the GFS for Saturday. Last night it showed 2-5 inches of rain over all of western WA just that day alone... now it shows almost nothing.Yep. I think it has more adjusting to do, also. This is precisely the type of pattern that can screw with the ECMWF. Disjointed NPAC jet with plenty of small/isolated waves that it can cut-off, drag into positive tilts, or over-amplify. I think I can already see the rear-quad bias running rampant again by 96hrs (unless I'm missing something and those waves really do end up dispersing positively like that). Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted November 15, 2017 Report Share Posted November 15, 2017 Is warm rain shown? The ski areas went from being buried over the weekend to things staying dry, with warm rain to follow. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighlandExperience Posted November 15, 2017 Report Share Posted November 15, 2017 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted November 15, 2017 Report Share Posted November 15, 2017 ULLs everywhere! #LolEuro http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/93EE24D7-4146-41B3-BEA9-6C56CA9E7DA8_zpsybs9ygr7.png Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DareDuck Posted November 15, 2017 Report Share Posted November 15, 2017 Quote Bend, ORElevation: 3550' Snow History:Nov: 1"Dec: .5"Jan: 1.9"Feb: 12.7"Mar: 1.0"Total: 17.1" 2016/2017: 70"2015/2016: 34"Average: ~25" 2017/2018 Winter TempsLowest Min: 1F on 2/23Lowest Max: 23F on 12/24, 2/22Lows <32: 87Highs <32: 13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 15, 2017 Report Share Posted November 15, 2017 00z ECMWF was okay. Day 10 isn't horrible. Interesting the positive anomaly/ridge remains throughout the run from 160-170 W. http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2017111500/240/500h_anom.na.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted November 15, 2017 Report Share Posted November 15, 2017 00z ECMWF was okay. Day 10 isn't horrible. Interesting the positive anomaly/ridge remains throughout the run from 160-170 W. http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2017111500/240/500h_anom.na.pngULL in Mexico, eh? Knock me over with a feather. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted November 15, 2017 Report Share Posted November 15, 2017 It's pretty windy here tonight, about as windy as our last storm. With the wind has been a ridiculously strong rain shadow signature. There's been some heavy rain just a bit to the north of here, but only about 0.3" here on the day.I was in Victoria most of the evening. The roads were almost dry when we left. Pouring rain at home. Close To 2” since 7am. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 15, 2017 Report Share Posted November 15, 2017 The surface pressure map on the day 10 ECMWF shows the GOA completely dominated by high pressure once again. I can only imagine how sluggish things are going to be over the Pacific during the dead of winter! 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 15, 2017 Report Share Posted November 15, 2017 The surface pressure map on the day 10 ECMWF shows the GOA completely dominated by high pressure once again. I can only imagine how sluggish things are going to be over the Pacific during the dead of winter!I can't remember the last time I saw the Pacific (west of the dateline) so dead. This is nuts. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 15, 2017 Report Share Posted November 15, 2017 December is going to be AMAZING. Start looking for the models to show the Arctic goodies after Thanksgiving somewhere around the December 4th - 6th time frame. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted November 15, 2017 Report Share Posted November 15, 2017 Very wet/windy and 43 degrees currently. Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 15, 2017 Report Share Posted November 15, 2017 You can see the GFS ensembles really show improvement toward the end of the run. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 15, 2017 Report Share Posted November 15, 2017 December is going to be AMAZING. Start looking for the models to show the Arctic goodies after Thanksgiving somewhere around the December 4th - 6th time frame. Certainly looks promising. The 6z shows high GOA heights late in the month once again. The 6z also shows another minor shot of chilly air early next week that wasn't there before which delays the warm period. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Farmboy Posted November 15, 2017 Report Share Posted November 15, 2017 So, it's a good idea to pre-order some Xanax, so it arrives by the 4th? Quote "Avoiding unwanted weather is a key element of happiness." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crf450ish Posted November 15, 2017 Report Share Posted November 15, 2017 I'm getting excited ULLs everywhere! #LolEurohttp://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/93EE24D7-4146-41B3-BEA9-6C56CA9E7DA8_zpsybs9ygr7.pngImagine if they all converged to form one giant low. #thedayaftertomorrow 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crf450ish Posted November 15, 2017 Report Share Posted November 15, 2017 Awesome, thanks for posting this! Another reason to be very hopeful about this winter!http://www.spaceweather.com/archive.php?view=1&day=14&month=11&year=2017 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crf450ish Posted November 15, 2017 Report Share Posted November 15, 2017 Last night's windstorm resulted in the worst power outage in Capitol Hill in at least a decade. I've never seen all the shops, bars, and restaurants on Broadway pitch black at dinnertime as far as the eye could see, and I've been in this neighborhood since 2003. So many sushi places must have lost their inventory. Oh the humanity.... I somehow lost only half the power in my apartment for a while (despite re-setting the circuit breakers a few times). Some outlets and lights worked and some didn't - I didn't even realize that was possible. I was still praising the heavens and celebrating my semi-good fortune compared to my immediate neighbors when I lost all power around 11:00. Took all my food out of the fridge and onto the balcony at 1:00 a.m. to rescue what I could. Nearly the exact moment I placed the last condiment bottle on the balcony the power came back on and I brought everything back inside. Also graded papers by flashlight for 1.5 hours after having a ladyfriend over in the dark. Wasn't the most relaxing of evenings, but certainly memorable. Was very impressed by the wind gusts up here. Trees were most bendy.It appears theres going to be a niche market in that area for backup generators. It must have been an intriguing night for you, having a lady friend over on a night when the power went out. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 15, 2017 Report Share Posted November 15, 2017 Really wet morning. Sitting at 44 right now. Was watching the video feed of the snow dumping at Crystal Mountain and Snoqualmie Pass 1 Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted November 15, 2017 Report Share Posted November 15, 2017 *****SLIGHT***** differences for next week on the 12z. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kayla Posted November 15, 2017 Report Share Posted November 15, 2017 The 12z GFS is....different... 1 Quote Cold Season 2023/24: Total snowfall: 26" Highest daily snowfall: 5" Deepest snow depth: 12" Coldest daily high: -20ºF Coldest daily low: -42ºF Number of subzero days: 5 Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kayla Posted November 15, 2017 Report Share Posted November 15, 2017 *****SLIGHT***** differences for next week on the 12z. Pretty bizarre shift. Outlier or a possible new trend?? Quote Cold Season 2023/24: Total snowfall: 26" Highest daily snowfall: 5" Deepest snow depth: 12" Coldest daily high: -20ºF Coldest daily low: -42ºF Number of subzero days: 5 Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted November 15, 2017 Report Share Posted November 15, 2017 Inslide cider!!!! Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Posted November 15, 2017 Report Share Posted November 15, 2017 *****SLIGHT***** differences for next week on the 12z.looks like a pretty big difference Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kayla Posted November 15, 2017 Report Share Posted November 15, 2017 Same time, 06z compared to now the 12z GFS. Ummmm...okay! 3 Quote Cold Season 2023/24: Total snowfall: 26" Highest daily snowfall: 5" Deepest snow depth: 12" Coldest daily high: -20ºF Coldest daily low: -42ºF Number of subzero days: 5 Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighlandExperience Posted November 15, 2017 Report Share Posted November 15, 2017 Warning shots on the 12z Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted November 15, 2017 Report Share Posted November 15, 2017 Last night's windstorm resulted in the worst power outage in Capitol Hill in at least a decade. I've never seen all the shops, bars, and restaurants on Broadway pitch black at dinnertime as far as the eye could see, and I've been in this neighborhood since 2003. So many sushi places must have lost their inventory. Oh the humanity.... I somehow lost only half the power in my apartment for a while (despite re-setting the circuit breakers a few times). Some outlets and lights worked and some didn't - I didn't even realize that was possible. I was still praising the heavens and celebrating my semi-good fortune compared to my immediate neighbors when I lost all power around 11:00. Took all my food out of the fridge and onto the balcony at 1:00 a.m. to rescue what I could. Nearly the exact moment I placed the last condiment bottle on the balcony the power came back on and I brought everything back inside. Also graded papers by flashlight for 1.5 hours after having a ladyfriend over in the dark. Wasn't the most relaxing of evenings, but certainly memorable. Was very impressed by the wind gusts up here. Trees were most bendy.Living in an area that has a lot of power outages, I can tell you that you probably didn’t need to empty you fridge. Keep your fridge and freezer closed as much as possible and it’ll be fine for probably 24hrs. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kayla Posted November 15, 2017 Report Share Posted November 15, 2017 12z CMC says GFS is cra cra. Quote Cold Season 2023/24: Total snowfall: 26" Highest daily snowfall: 5" Deepest snow depth: 12" Coldest daily high: -20ºF Coldest daily low: -42ºF Number of subzero days: 5 Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted November 15, 2017 Report Share Posted November 15, 2017 12z CMC says GFS is cra cra. Also has little support from the ensembles. This is when we want to torch, peeps. Now through early/mid December. At least if you're rooting for significant mid winter cold. 1 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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