May 2018 Observations and Discussion

[Minny_Weather]

This May is sucking on epic proportions in terms of severe wx. Well BA and looks like the next 2 weeks will likely end up BA as well. We've got moisture, but we've also got massive height rises and no upper flow. Where is the upper flow you ask? Canada. Fantastic. 2018 may end up being the worst year for everywhere on records. Didn't even know it was possible to suck so bad. I need to be let out of this crummy decade.

Legitimately the worst decade in recorded history for any weather enthusiast West of the Mississippi. This even beats out the 1930s in epic suckage. Hell if it wasn't for modern technology we may be in a second dust bowl right now, especially 2012. This year is so bad because of the direct flip from Winter to Summer providing absolutely no room for severe wx.

 

Anyone wanna storm chase Canada with me?

[Tom]

Happy Monday!  Hope ya'll had a enjoyable Mother's Day yesterday.  Thankfully, the rains held off and the sun made some appearances later in the day which was nice to see.  I sparked the first bon fire of the season at my sister's place which everyone enjoyed and brought smiles to their faces.  I swear, a fire is like a magnet to me and I didn't want to leave.  We're planning on having another one this Saturday (weather permitting).  This time, I'd like to dig some potatoes in the coals, stick some sausages on some sticks and rock on!

 

 

Meanwhile, yet another line of storms is knocking on my door step...if this is the summer preview, I'm all for it.  

 

http://climate.cod.edu/data/nexrad/LOT/N0Q/LOT.N0Q.20180514.1039.gif

[Tom]

@ Hawkeye, you getting lucky out there this morning???

[Hawkeye]

@ Hawkeye, you getting lucky out there this morning???

 

No.  I'm being totally screwed.  Heavy cells have been training a mile or two north and a mile or two south.  2+ inches has fallen on the north side of CR, now going over 1" on the south side, while here right in the middle I'm struggling to go over a half inch.  The school just se of me only has a third of an inch.  Storms have been training through the CR area for two hours, but I haven't heard it rain heavily once.  It doesn't get much worse than this.

[Tom]

No.  I'm being totally screwed.  Heavy cells have been training a mile or two north and a mile or two south.  2+ inches has fallen on the north side of CR, now going over 1" on the south side, while here right in the middle I'm struggling to go over a half inch.

Sheesh, I'm sorry to hear that but at least your getting something rather than nothing.  It's been the exact opposite around here and seemingly every time it wants to rain buckets it does.  Hopefully the tide turns out your way...looks like you have a chance of more action this weekend.

[Tom]

Holy crap, this cell right over head is pouring buckets.  N Cook is getting socked right now...some lighting and thunder but no hail or wind....

 

 

 

http://climate.cod.edu/data/nexrad/LOT/N0Q/LOT.N0Q.20180514.1117.gif

[Tom]

Through the rest of this week, some beneficial rains should fall across the central Plains with the best chance for a widespread soaker coming this weekend across NE.

 

 

 

It will become more difficult to produce rains across KS and the TX Panhandle region as we head into June.  The drought is holding steady and you can paint a picture where you'd expect to see the summer time ridge fire up as we head deeper into Summer.  Those of you just to the north of this drought will need to get lucky when the pattern does get active.  It's been spotty thus far across this portion of the ag belt and even into parts of the S Midwest.

 

http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/data/png/current/current_usdm.png

[Hawkeye]

I finished this morning with 0.56" of rain after being skirted by several heavy cells.

[Niko]

Some rain possible today, although, it seems that the heaviest will be just south of me, thank goodness. I picked up over 3.60" from Fri-Sun am.

[Niko]

Currently cloudy and temp @ 55F. Most of the rain as mentioned is south of me. Detroit is getting trenched.

[CentralNebWeather]

Got about 1/2" of rain this morning.  Straight down, no wind, a little thunder and lightning.  Very welcome relief to our extended dry conditions.  It all soaked in, you can see nothing standing anywhere.  

[westMJim]

What a difference May is from April after a bitterly cold April we are now in a rather warm May. At this time all major Michigan reporting locations are warmer then average. As of this morning Grand Rapids mean temp is 60.8°(+5.0°) Lansing 60.5° (+5.6°) Muskegon 58.3° (+4.1°) Detroit 61.2° (+4.4°) Flint 59.8° (+5.8°) Saginaw 59.5° (+5.3°) Alpena 53.3° (+3.6°) Sault Ste Marie 50.5° (+1.3°) and Marquette 48.2° (+0.5°)

Not much rain here at my house overnight only 0.03" temperature here is now 61° with the DP in the upper 50's it makes it feel very mild out there.

[Tom]

Got about 1/2" of rain this morning.  Straight down, no wind, a little thunder and lightning.  Very welcome relief to our extended dry conditions.  It all soaked in, you can see nothing standing anywhere.  

I was thinking about you earlier this morning around 5:30am when I noticed the radar near Kearney had some embedded storms.  Glad you scored some moisture.  I think you are sitting pretty for this weekends "Plains Soaker" or rather..."Nebraska Soaker".  Depending on how the convective nature of the storms sets up, I could see some places nearby score 2"+ of rain.

 

12z GFS continues to spit out some impressive moisture that is desperately needed to keep the drought at bay....

 

[Tom]

What a difference a couple hours make.  Southerly flow is in high gear, skies are beginning to clear as the sun does its work on temps.  Let's see if the sun can destabilize the atmosphere enough during the afternoon to pop some severe storms.  DP's are in the low 60's which have that soupy feel in the air.  #Summer

[CentralNebWeather]

I was thinking about you earlier this morning around 5:30am when I noticed the radar near Kearney had some embedded storms.  Glad you scored some moisture.  I think you are sitting pretty for this weekends "Plains Soaker" or rather..."Nebraska Soaker".  Depending on how the convective nature of the storms sets up, I could see some places nearby score 2"+ of rain.

 

12z GFS continues to spit out some impressive moisture that is desperately needed to keep the drought at bay....

 

Thanks for thinking of me Tom.  Always appreciate your empathy and genuine care for your fellow poster.  We could sure take some more precipitation, though we are adding a larger sanctuary and new parking lot to our church and the concrete was going to be poured this week only if it stays dry.  Our pastor joked that we needed rain everywhere in town and the county except at the church site.

[Niko]

A cloudy, dry day w temps in the 60s.

[Stacsh]

A cloudy, dry day w temps in the 60s.

73 with a dewpoint of 66 here.  Muggy.  Looks like the long range midwest forecast is warm and soupy.  

[jaster220]

Marshall's now past the 3" mark since Friday per GRR's latest updated map just before 10 am  http://www.uswxforums.com/forum/public/style_emoticons/default/rain.gif Can't wait to get home later and deal with my wading pool - wait, I meant my basement..  http://www.uswxforums.com/forum/public/style_emoticons/default/axesmiley.gif  http://www.uswxforums.com/forum/public/style_emoticons/default/axesmiley.gif  

[BrianJK]

87 with 65 DP. Storms moving in

[Hawkeye]

The AC went on for the first time this afternoon.  The dewpoint jumped to 68.

[St Paul Storm]

A nice 3.5 hour steady soaker here tonight. Not sure how much we’ve gotten as my rain gauge cracked. Much needed rain though. It’s been dry here.

[Hawkeye]

Not surprisingly, models have removed our storms tonight.  That means my 3-day total is only 0.88".  The 4-day total from the beginning of the month was only 0.89".  We need to be getting more out of these stormy patterns.

[Niko]

73 with a dewpoint of 66 here.  Muggy.  Looks like the long range midwest forecast is warm and soupy.  

Typical Weather for this time of the year. Hopefully, we can buy some nice, Canadian HP areas from time to time.

[Niko]

Some big storms moving in later tanite. Some could be strong to severe. Rest of the week looking to be very good w a great deal of sunshine.

[Tom]

Yesterday was a busy day around here as I got hit by 3 rounds of storms  (early morning, afternoon and evening) .  Easily over 2" of rain as I have standing water again in my back yard.  Excited to see the rest of the work week filled with sunshine and temps in the 70's.  Looking forward to drying out.  Everything is lush green and some trees are almost at full bloom!  

 

It seems like every year you hear stories as such, here's some extreme weather that happened near the front range of CO yesterday: http://kdvr.com/2018/05/14/more-than-3-inches-of-hail-reported-near-parker-snowplows-dispatched-to-clear-roads/

[jaster220]

@ Tom

 

Speaking of rounds of T-storms and localized flooding. I got hit between 1:30 and 2 am. Had cracked open the window near my bed since it was mild so of course it woke me with all the flashing-n-crashing. After the main show had passed almost out of earshot, a single rogue strike to my west a couple miles sent a shock-wave rumbling thru my 'hood. It was really neat. You could hear it coming like an earthquake and as it passed the ground shook and there were sounds like the air being ripped. Ofc, my back yard is a small pond this morning tho my basement wasn't too bad (yet) but I'm sure it will be 10 days minimum til the water table drops enough to really dry out again. That's the worst ponding in mby since the July 2010 flooding. That was my first bad flood since buying this place 2 yrs prior. The city actually borrowed me their street pump to drain the swamp  http://www.uswxforums.com/forum/public/style_emoticons/default/laugh.png but then needed it too badly themselves and came and took it away. I won't even bother them this time. I'll just cycle my basement pump til I don't need to anymore. Then it's a mop and dry kinda phase til it stops seeping eventually. Soooo glad to see my grid with 4 days of sunshine and warmth. I did manage to sneak in mowing my lawn last evening so that was an unexpected plus. How GRR kept us out of their flood advisory Idk??? I wish I could've sent 3 of my 4" of rainfall out to those plains peeps that need it so badly as well. 

[westMJim]

Getting some light rain here again. Overnight I had 0.43″ of rain with several light thundershowers Current temperature here at my house is 62°
 

[Niko]

Currently cloudy and wet, but, slowly drying out. Gorgeous week coming up.

[Niko]

https://weather.com/news/news/2018-05-14-meteotsunamis-great-lakes-april-2018

 

No damage, but, Meteotsunamis they can cause minor destruction.

[Tom]

@ Tom

 

Speaking of rounds of T-storms and localized flooding. I got hit between 1:30 and 2 am. Had cracked open the window near my bed since it was mild so of course it woke me with all the flashing-n-crashing. After the main show had passed almost out of earshot, a single rogue strike to my west a couple miles sent a shock-wave rumbling thru my 'hood. It was really neat. You could hear it coming like an earthquake and as it passed the ground shook and there were sounds like the air being ripped. Ofc, my back yard is a small pond this morning tho my basement wasn't too bad (yet) but I'm sure it will be 10 days minimum til the water table drops enough to really dry out again. That's the worst ponding in mby since the July 2010 flooding. That was my first bad flood since buying this place 2 yrs prior. The city actually borrowed me their street pump to drain the swamp http://www.uswxforums.com/forum/public/style_emoticons/default/laugh.png but then needed it too badly themselves and came and took it away. I won't even bother them this time. I'll just cycle my basement pump til I don't need to anymore. Then it's a mop and dry kinda phase til it stops seeping eventually. Soooo glad to see my grid with 4 days of sunshine and warmth. I did manage to sneak in mowing my lawn last evening so that was an unexpected plus. How GRR kept us out of their flood advisory Idk??? I wish I could've sent 3 of my 4" of rainfall out to those plains peeps that need it so badly as well.

Weren’t those cracks of thunder loud? I’m telling ya, this season has produced some vivid lightning and very loud storms. Impressed with the action we have seen thus far.

[NEJeremy]

I emptied my rain gauge last night after Sunday night's storms and a light shower yesterday morning, and it had only .38" of rain. Better than nothing, but on Sunday afternoon I planted a couple of bushes and the ground was DRY. It took a lot of work to dig the hole I needed and I didn't even run into wetter ground further underground. Kind of crazy how green the grass can be with such little moisture. Of course we haven't had highs in the 90s....yet.

[Hawkeye]

Some of you have done very well this month, with repeated rounds of heavy rain.  Meanwhile, I'm sitting at only 1.81", below avg halfway through the month.  Given the extended forecast, we may end up below avg for the entire month.

[Tom]

Here's a 2-day map of the recent rains...

 

[westMJim]

Not sure when the trees will leaf out along the shore of Lake Superior. I know it is one of the latest locations in the United States. Also for anyone who sill misses seeing snow here is todays picture from Houghton and Mt Ripley. In the past few summers there were snow patches well into June lets see how long they last this year. I will update from time to time.

https://www.mtu.edu/webcams/ski-hill/motion.html

and

https://www.mtu.edu/webcams/ripley/motion.html

here are more web cams from Michigan Tech

https://www.mtu.edu/webcams/

[westMJim]

As for the rain fall most of the heavy rain has been south of my house I have had 1.09" since Friday while the airport has recorded 1.60" a sharp cut off.

[Niko]

A brief downpour just went on by as I was in my garage preparing my snow thrower for the off season. Lasted about 10 minutes, but it really came down.

[Jaycee]

We picked up close to 3” over the past two days, and like Tom said, Lightning was pretty dang vivid. Also, what in the hell is going on with the east coast?! This is the second moderate risk for the area in two weeks. You guys steal our snow enough, can’t you atleast leave the severe weather for us?! Check out that wind threat, been awhile since I’ve seen a 60% show up on the SPC, let alone in that area my god:

 

 

 

 

[jaster220]

Here's a 2-day map of the recent rains...

 

 

I'll see you, and raise you several inches 

 

[jaster220]

Not sure when the trees will leaf out along the shore of Lake Superior. I know it is one of the latest locations in the United States. Also for anyone who sill misses seeing snow here is todays picture from Houghton and Mt Ripley. In the past few summers there were snow patches well into June lets see how long they last this year. I will update from time to time.

https://www.mtu.edu/webcams/ski-hill/motion.html

and

https://www.mtu.edu/webcams/ripley/motion.html

here are more web cams from Michigan Tech

https://www.mtu.edu/webcams/

 

Back in '97 when I lived in Traverse City, the trees down in town near the bay were also without a single leaf as late as May 17th. How much longer it took I'm not certain. I normally only went that direction on weekends since my work was well inland not near the coast. 

[Tom]

I'll see you, and raise you several inches

 

20180515 NWS GRR storm total RN graphic.jpg

Your map is since the 11th which my map doesn’t take into account. I’m sure our area is right around those totals if you add those up. ORD is 3.33” above normal for precipitation thus far for the month.