PNW February 2023 Weather Discussion - Meteorological winter finale

[Slushy Inch]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

If this verifies it will be the first time in history that a crazy GFS pepto map has ever verified.   

2019

[Rubus Leucodermis]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

If this verifies it will be the first time in history that a crazy GFS pepto map has ever verified.   

The crazy pepto maps going into the February 2019 cold snap ended up being pretty much spot-on for Bainbridge Island.

[AlTahoe]

85" in town and 140" over the crest! 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

20 minutes ago, Cloud said:

Didn't it verified couple years ago? 2018-2019 season. 

Yup... showed about 2' IMBY on Bainbridge Island... and that is about what I got, all totaled up.

[Cloud]

1 minute ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Yup... showed about 2' IMBY on Bainbrodge Island... and that is about what I got, all totaled up.

SEA racked up almost 2' also... and I vividly remembered the GFS pepto maps being mocked at. So not the first time. 

[Cold Snap]

4 minutes ago, Cloud said:

Didn't it verified couple years ago? 2018-2019 season. 

I remember it showed a 72 hour total of 30 inches IMBY during that and I got 25 inches during that 72 hour period so I’d say that it pretty much verified.

[SouthHillFrosty]

GEFS looks similar to last night 

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, Cloud said:

SEA racked up almost 2' also... and I vividly remembered the GFS pepto maps being mocked at. So not the first time. 

Didn't we have ECMWF support back then?

I should say GFS pepto maps with no other model support.

 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Didn't we have ECMWF support back then?

I should say GFS pepto maps with no other model support.

Yes, I would feel far more enthusiastic if the Euro was concurring. But my post was a hypothetical one: “If it verifies…”

[ShawniganLake]

42 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Looks underdone. I’m expecting much higher amounts to verify. 

[Deweydog]

Just now, ShawniganLake said:

Looks underdone. I’m expecting much higher amounts to verify. 

Only two inches at Crescent City? Yeah, right…

[Cloud]

6 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Didn't we have ECMWF support back then?

I should say GFS pepto maps with no other model support.

 

The Euro eventually jumped on board but it was the GFS that showed the crazy pepto beforehand as well. 

[Cold Snap]

5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Didn't we have ECMWF support back then?

I should say GFS pepto maps with no other model support.

 

Yeah we did lol.

[Gummy]

The EPS has shown its fair share of phantom snow this season also. I feel like the Euro OP has done a better job and been more realistic overall. Due to a higher resolution I assume?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Another bigtime run from the GFS and its ensembles suite. 
 

In current news, most of Silverton and Salem were fog free, but from the office down to Albany was totally socked in this morning and still is. 31 in Albany with freezing fog. 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Another bigtime run from the GFS and its ensembles suite.

In current news, most of Silverton and Salem were fog free, but from the office down to Albany was totally socked in this morning and still is. 31 in Albany with freezing fog. 

It was a pretty normal story here this morning: clear and frosty IMBY but cloudy and no frost just a few miles north. Clouds often bank against the Coast Mountains and cause such patterns.

[Slushy Inch]

Round 2

[Cascadia_Wx]

Fog has rolled in here and the temp is holding at 31. PDX is still socked in and 32. Pretty impressive. I’m sure once things clear out in the afternoon they’ll rise into the mid 40s but that’s still decent for mid-Feb.

[Omegaraptor]

31 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

If someone gifts you a bottle of Dom Perignon, why pour it down the toilet?

If you want snow -> drive less than two hours to more snow than the Midwest and East Coast can get in their wildest dreams.

If you want cold -> have to go all the way to Idaho/Montana for subzero lows on any remotely consistent basis.

Cold is more exclusive than snow in this region.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Upper level ridging over the
Pacific will keep W WA in the firing line for systems dipping down
right smack into the area. The aforementioned shortwave entering the
area will have the most impact Saturday but even here neither
deterministic nor ensemble models look terribly impressed. The
higher elevations of the North Cascades will be most prone to higher
chances for precip but the remainder of the area will remain in the
slight chance to chance category for PoPs. Sunday evening into
Monday sees yet another system dipping down into the area, this one
looking a bit more organized and better chances for widespread
precip. While there may be a 6 to 12 hour gap in-between systems, a
deeper upper level low will move in for Tuesday, bringing with it
the most substantial rainfall of the forecast period...should
current solutions remain on track.

Temps in the long term look to remain fairly static...maybe a little
warming here and there...but overall daytime highs will linger in
the upper 40s to around 50. Overnight lows will benefit from the
lingering cloud cover, staying in the upper 30s to lower 40s.  18

This is the Seattle NWS. I would love to have what they are smoking.

[Cascadia_Wx]

7 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

If you want snow -> drive less than two hours to more snow than the Midwest and East Coast can get in their wildest dreams.

If you want cold -> have to go all the way to Idaho/Montana for subzero lows on any remotely consistent basis.

Cold is more exclusive than snow in this region.

How can you be partially right but still always manage to be so wrong?

[runninthruda206]

6 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Upper level ridging over the
Pacific will keep W WA in the firing line for systems dipping down
right smack into the area. The aforementioned shortwave entering the
area will have the most impact Saturday but even here neither
deterministic nor ensemble models look terribly impressed. The
higher elevations of the North Cascades will be most prone to higher
chances for precip but the remainder of the area will remain in the
slight chance to chance category for PoPs. Sunday evening into
Monday sees yet another system dipping down into the area, this one
looking a bit more organized and better chances for widespread
precip. While there may be a 6 to 12 hour gap in-between systems, a
deeper upper level low will move in for Tuesday, bringing with it
the most substantial rainfall of the forecast period...should
current solutions remain on track.

Temps in the long term look to remain fairly static...maybe a little
warming here and there...but overall daytime highs will linger in
the upper 40s to around 50. Overnight lows will benefit from the
lingering cloud cover, staying in the upper 30s to lower 40s.  18

This is the Seattle NWS. I would love to have what they are smoking.

what the LOL

[Slushy Inch]

13 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

If you want snow -> drive less than two hours to more snow than the Midwest and East Coast can get in their wildest dreams.

If you want cold -> have to go all the way to Idaho/Montana for subzero lows on any remotely consistent basis.

Cold is more exclusive than snow in this region.

I had no idea!

[Rubus Leucodermis]

13 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

If you want snow -> drive less than two hours to more snow than the Midwest and East Coast can get in their wildest dreams.

If you want cold -> have to go all the way to Idaho/Montana for subzero lows on any remotely consistent basis.

Cold is more exclusive than snow in this region.

You want what you want, I want what I want, and I always end up feeling at least somewhat disappointed when a dry blast happens.

[RentonHill]

Euro sort of looks more GFS than GEM so far through Day 4. But i'm also a blind man and am relying on my seeing-eye dog to bark the colors and contours at me

[Christensen87]

16 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Upper level ridging over the
Pacific will keep W WA in the firing line for systems dipping down
right smack into the area. The aforementioned shortwave entering the
area will have the most impact Saturday but even here neither
deterministic nor ensemble models look terribly impressed. The
higher elevations of the North Cascades will be most prone to higher
chances for precip but the remainder of the area will remain in the
slight chance to chance category for PoPs. Sunday evening into
Monday sees yet another system dipping down into the area, this one
looking a bit more organized and better chances for widespread
precip. While there may be a 6 to 12 hour gap in-between systems, a
deeper upper level low will move in for Tuesday, bringing with it
the most substantial rainfall of the forecast period...should
current solutions remain on track.

Temps in the long term look to remain fairly static...maybe a little
warming here and there...but overall daytime highs will linger in
the upper 40s to around 50. Overnight lows will benefit from the
lingering cloud cover, staying in the upper 30s to lower 40s.  18

This is the Seattle NWS. I would love to have what they are smoking.

No mention at all, of, anything....weird.

[dhoffine]

1 minute ago, Christensen87 said:

No mention at all, of, anything....weird.

They clearly think the GFS Is a #$## show..

[MossMan]

1 minute ago, Christensen87 said:

No mention at all, of, anything....weird.

I like how they are calling for temps to warm in the long term!!

[SnowWillarrive]

3 minutes ago, Christensen87 said:

No mention at all, of, anything....weird.

PDX already issuing a winter storm warning. 

[Cold Snap]

3 minutes ago, MossMan said:

I like how they are calling for temps to warm in the long term!!

Probably means colder and snowier runs ahead!

[Christensen87]

11 minutes ago, SnowWillarrive said:

PDX already issuing a winter storm warning. 

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...More active weather begins
Monday as the jet stream drops into the region. All model clusters
agree that we`ll begin with northwesterly flow aloft initially,
then likely trending toward a deepening shortwave trough dipping into
the PacNW later Mon into Tue to bring more substantial rain and
mountain snow. Current models support snow levels lowering to around
2000 ft Tue.

[RentonHill]

[RentonHill]

where is everyone? 

[Cold Snap]

[RentonHill]

[SouthHillFrosty]

3 minutes ago, RentonHill said:

where is everyone? 

In a meeting 

[RentonHill]

Day 9

[Cloud]

Kold... 

[SouthHillFrosty]

I have never seen snow so far out in the Pacific before 

[Cold Snap]

Euro looks amazing! Forgot to post this frame.