PNW February 2023 Weather Discussion - Meteorological winter finale

[snow_wizard]

10 hours ago, Dave said:

Although this is off topic, this is a good watch. This dude dumbs down a lot of the meteorology for plebs like me and he seems to know what he is talking about. It is a good summary of the deadly Vancouver, WA tornado of 1972.

  

Interesting to note the tornado pic is from a tornado in the Kent-Auburn Valley in the late 1960s.  A very photogenic F-2.

[Doinko]

Decent amount of lowland snow

 

[SnowySeeker50]

Still have some surviving snow here from Monday night. Currently 44 degrees

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF is pretty meh for western WA... worst run of the last couple days.

[Doinko]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

12Z ECMWF is pretty meh for western WA... worse run of the last couple days.

Looks like the best so far for Oregon

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, Doinko said:

Looks like the best so far for Oregon

Yep... appears our loss is your gain.  

[snow_wizard]

I still think these models are too dry.

[TT-SEA]

Thursday is likely the coldest day... impressively cold high temps but about 3 degrees warmer for Seattle compared to the 00Z run.    Particularly impressive for western OR likely with snow on the ground.

[Doinko]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Thursday is likely the coldest day... impressively cold high temps but about 3 degrees warmer for Seattle compared to the 00Z run.    Particularly impressive for western OR likely with snow on the ground.

By the way, looking back at 2011, the Euro was showing high temps in the 40 to 45 range for NW OR from the Fox12 blog posts at around this range. PDX managed  34 and 33 high temps with that

[T-Town]

16 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Until you go south of 6th ave roughly. West side of town near UP is also nice. 80% of Tacoma is not too great. 

Accurate. I grew up in Tacoma in the 70s and couldn’t get out fast enough. It’s actually quite a bit nicer now - waterfront and Stadium district have been developed a lot, and downtown and the hilltop are trying. But, still a long way to go. 

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

I still think these models are too dry.

Not sure its a matter of dry... or just a little too warm for the Puget Sound area.   There is lots of precip on Tuesday but its too warm.   And its still in the mid 30s in Seattle even on Wednesday morning.     

[TT-SEA]

Still very chilly on Friday... and basically dry.    Light precip is moving into the coast late in the day.

[TT-SEA]

ECMWF does show there is snow on the ground still on Friday afternoon in parts of the WV.  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Euro looks cold! And snowy!

[Cold Snap]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

ECMWF does show there is snow on the ground still on Friday afternoon in parts of the WV.  

Maybe I won’t have to miss out on a big event if the Euro is right. Just hoping that snow doesn’t interfere with travel.

[TT-SEA]

And then the overrunning event on Saturday morning... but it shows temps around 40 in Seattle already by 4 a.m. that day.

[T-Town]

26 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I spent part of 2005 and 2006 at the Simpson paper mill doing consulting work... great people there.   Very stinky.  

Back in the day the heavy industry in Tacoma pumped out quite a stench. Growing up here, it just seemed normal that on clear, cold winter days it smelled like a pulp mill. The smell is mostly gone at this point, but Tacoma’s reputation lives on. 

[TT-SEA]

ECMWF shows south wind gusting to 40 mph through the Sound on Saturday.   Randy will like that!  

[TT-SEA]

I am starting to believe this will be the best event of the winter for western OR... snow followed by a couple cold days.    

[TT-SEA]

Also a fun week for @hawkstwelve!

 

[Christensen87]

Heading to the Twin Cities! 

[Anti Marine Layer]

Snow maps keep changing 

[JW8]

We're going to Suncadia Sat-Tues. Any thoughts on how travel should be on those 2 days? 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Another fantastic euro run. Mid range is active and interesting. Score!!!

[Fircrest]

1 hour ago, Deweydog said:

My most pervasive memory of Tacoma was a trip to B&I circa 1987 or so. Still working through issues associated with that.

Was Ivan the Gorilla part of those issues? Or was it the chicken that played tic-tac-toe?

[Fircrest]

1 hour ago, TacomaWx said:

Until you go south of 6th ave roughly. West side of town near UP is also nice. 80% of Tacoma is not too great. 

Fircrest is great! Though not technically part of Tacoma of course.

[Requiem]

47 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z ECMWF is pretty meh for western WA... worst run of the last couple days.

Hmmm okay we can work w this... a good run for W. Oregon.

[TT-SEA]

8 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Another fantastic euro run. Mid range is active and interesting. Score!!!

Really amazing... was expecting all the troughing on previous runs to disappear and see nothing but warm ridging and sunshine forever on this run.  Unbelievable score!   

[TigerWoodsLibido]

I’m gonna be at the Portland Convention Center and that area the next day or 2. Would love it if any of y’all came over to say hi. Been a rough stretch for me and I wanna make sure I have a chance to show y’all how much I appreciate your friendship before I’m…yeah. This condition sucks.

[ShawniganLake]

2 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

A fun development. Power outages as temperatures plunge. 

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

9 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Really amazing... was expecting all the troughing on previous runs to disappear and see nothing but warm ridging and sunshine forever on this run.  Unbelievable score!   

We are truly blessed. 

[Deweydog]

11 minutes ago, Fircrest said:

Was Ivan the Gorilla part of those issues? Or was it the chicken that played tic-tac-toe?

The memories are fuzzy/suppressed but the list is long. It’s been amalgamated into some kind of acid flashback montage complete with clown trauma.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z ECMWF is pretty meh for western WA... worst run of the last couple days.

Can you post total precip?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Definitely the event of the winter coming up and no one is even paying attention. Figures. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

33 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Another fantastic euro run. Mid range is active and interesting. Score!!!

Yes it looks good. Definitely will be a good shot of snow for the entire area the way it looks.  And this is not based on one model run but the actual pattern shown.  But it looks like a 500ft and higher pattern at least during the day.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I have Jim levels of enthusiasm right now. Somebody stop me!

[DRG]

14 hours ago, Doinko said:

Crescent City outdoes most of us!

 

I'll have the temporary warming center set up in Gasquet, CA.  While we'll have twice the snow, I'll make sure to put everyone out on the river in floaty things where there will be zero snow.  And the water will technically be warmer than the snow, thereby not jeopardizing my tax exempt 503b charitable warming center status.

I'm not the hero you want but I am the hero you get...

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I have Jim levels of enthusiasm right now. Somebody stop me!

The gem run could really be crazy if that low tracks in further south.  

[Anti Marine Layer]

14 hours ago, Doinko said:

Crescent City outdoes most of us!

Typically more foggy there in summer than the rest of the West Coast.

[Cascadia_Wx]

1 hour ago, snow_wizard said:

I still think these models are too dry.

We’re so due though. 🏜