Tom Posted January 18, 2019 Report Share Posted January 18, 2019 12z NAM 3km...with a general .60 - .75 qpf in NE IL and parts of SE WI, fluff that up and one can easily approach and exceed 12". LES is typically 20:-30:1 ratio snows so you can do that math. I'd say about a quarter of that total precip falls as LES. Not only that, models have no clue how intense the Lake Plume may end up being and just provide a general idea. Both NAM's keep the lake plume hugging the western shores for 12+ hours which is an encouraging sign for a potential long duration LES set up. http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam4km/2019011812/060/qpf_acc.us_mw.png 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted January 18, 2019 Report Share Posted January 18, 2019 The second band is where you could make bank. I think the fronto band skirts to your northI’m guessing so too, but it would be nice to get in on some of that action. Or if that dry wedge isn’t as pronounced as it’s showing and I get a little more prolonged snow. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrianJK Posted January 18, 2019 Report Share Posted January 18, 2019 Fgen band now out of N IL and into S WI on the NAM & HRRR. That would likely make a big difference in snow amounts if it verifies.That’s the bust potential I referenced last night. A 25-50 mile shift of the FGEN makes a huge difference especially when that’s typically as wide as the entire band is. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 18, 2019 Report Share Posted January 18, 2019 Bud and Hawkeye have a shot at jackin with that south band Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 18, 2019 Report Share Posted January 18, 2019 I think DMX is going to have to drop the warning for much of the western part of their area. Models have really crapped out for that area. 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 18, 2019 Report Share Posted January 18, 2019 I think DMX is going to have to drop the warning for much of the western part of their area. Models have really crapped out for that area.Ft Dodge and west look bad Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 18, 2019 Report Share Posted January 18, 2019 Omadome taking up a lot of space in IA 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted January 18, 2019 Report Share Posted January 18, 2019 5-10 here I’ll take it 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted January 18, 2019 Report Share Posted January 18, 2019 Horribly slick with freezing drizzle here. Most schools late start or closed, except our school, on time as usual. Boo. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
indianajohn Posted January 18, 2019 Report Share Posted January 18, 2019 Wow so close and models still really don’t have a clue... love it 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 18, 2019 Report Share Posted January 18, 2019 12z ICON Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 18, 2019 Report Share Posted January 18, 2019 I'd feel good if I was in Rochester Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 18, 2019 Report Share Posted January 18, 2019 12z RGEM This is the worst run so far for Cedar Rapids Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 18, 2019 Report Share Posted January 18, 2019 Looking like another 2 incher for mby Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 18, 2019 Report Share Posted January 18, 2019 This storm has potential for surprises and bust. Stay tuned as models are still clueless. Nowcasting begins tanite. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 18, 2019 Report Share Posted January 18, 2019 Wow so close and models still really don’t have a clue... love itThey don't. Clueless as they can ever be. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DSM WeatherNut Posted January 18, 2019 Report Share Posted January 18, 2019 RAP at 13z http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/rap/2019011813/021/snku_acc.conus.png I like this model personal, but unfortunately it doesn't work that way. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 18, 2019 Report Share Posted January 18, 2019 14z HRRR It needs to be frozen right there. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ToastedRavs Posted January 18, 2019 Report Share Posted January 18, 2019 12z GFS coming in juicier than 0z, that's for sure! Has 8+ in my county just south of Des Moines. But that dry punch goes along Hwy 20. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 18, 2019 Report Share Posted January 18, 2019 So when is that southern wave supposed to develop? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted January 18, 2019 Report Share Posted January 18, 2019 14z HRRR It needs to be frozen right there. Yup. HRR looks fine. Matches up pretty decent with the DVN forecast. Maybe more like 5-8”, but still solid. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 18, 2019 Report Share Posted January 18, 2019 Need a 20 mile shift North 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted January 18, 2019 Report Share Posted January 18, 2019 So when is that southern wave supposed to develop?Looking at the HRR, seems to be early afternoon when it really starts to take form. That dry wedge it’s showing around 3 or 4 this afternoon is gross. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 18, 2019 Report Share Posted January 18, 2019 12z GFS Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 18, 2019 Report Share Posted January 18, 2019 DMX could literally drop the warning for the entire CWA. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 18, 2019 Report Share Posted January 18, 2019 12z GFS lookin better for me.http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2019011812/039/snku_acc.us_mw.png 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted January 18, 2019 Report Share Posted January 18, 2019 DMX could literally drop the warning for the entire CWA.Some of their south central Iowa counties are still looking at warming criteria, no? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 18, 2019 Report Share Posted January 18, 2019 Every model has my county with roughly 6" or more. I'm liking where I sit. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 18, 2019 Report Share Posted January 18, 2019 Some of their south central Iowa counties are still looking at warming criteria, no?Yeah prolly if Kuchera verifies Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted January 18, 2019 Report Share Posted January 18, 2019 Yeah prolly if Kuchera verifiesOr if the HRRR verifies. At 10:1 ratios, that’d still be borderline warning criteria at the worst. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 18, 2019 Report Share Posted January 18, 2019 Every model has my county with roughly 6" or more. I'm liking where I sit. You look to be a good spot for sure. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easterniowa1 Posted January 18, 2019 Report Share Posted January 18, 2019 Omadome taking up a lot of space in IA Aren't some of those places looking at 12-18 inches of snow? Clickbait Craig said so. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 18, 2019 Report Share Posted January 18, 2019 Cloud tops near Sioux Falls have that convective look to it. I bet its rippin' out that way and a good sign this systems Fgen is ramping up. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 18, 2019 Report Share Posted January 18, 2019 Just starting to overcome the dry air Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 18, 2019 Report Share Posted January 18, 2019 Cloud tops near Sioux Falls have that convective look to it. I bet its rippin' out that way and a good sign this systems Fgen is ramping up.Yeah good banding out there. S MN looks good as it heads east. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 18, 2019 Report Share Posted January 18, 2019 I’m in Iowa City for this one. I feel like I’m just about golden. 2 Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 18, 2019 Report Share Posted January 18, 2019 12z Canadian Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted January 18, 2019 Report Share Posted January 18, 2019 I’m liking where I’m sitting Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 18, 2019 Report Share Posted January 18, 2019 Models still spitting out 4 or 5" for me but I'm not buying it based on radar trends. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted January 18, 2019 Report Share Posted January 18, 2019 every model seems to day 6 to 7 for me....Mkx still has 2 as the floor. If I cant hit 4" it will be a disappointment. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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