Tom Posted March 2, 2019 Author Report Share Posted March 2, 2019 In other news, the Sun has certainly fell asleep and will likely leave its mark in the years to come. The entire month of Feb had ZERO sunspots and I personally believe we are heading into a deep solar minimum which will have big implications into global weather patterns. In fact, I'll make a bold prediction that some places across the central/southern Plains will prob experience a "year without a summer". I'm not expecting any long duration heat waves this summer across the plains while to the N/NE the ridge will pop. Given the overall cyclical pattern, I expect a lot of precip which will hold temps below normal across the Plains and into the MW this Summer. A MONTH WITHOUT SUNSPOTS: There are 28 days in February. This year, all 28 of them were spotless. The sun had no sunspots for the entire month of Feb. 2019. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westMJim Posted March 2, 2019 Report Share Posted March 2, 2019 Had just over one inch of new snow here and the total on the ground ranges from 6 to 8 inches and of course the snow piles. The old snow is very packed and has almost a ice quality to it. And the parking lot snow piles some are huge and should last most if not all of March. The baseball season starts here on April 6th and I have my orientation on March 20th It like last year it might be a cold start to this years season.The current temperature here is 27 with light snow falling. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted March 2, 2019 Report Share Posted March 2, 2019 In other news, the Sun has certainly fell asleep and will likely leave its mark in the years to come. The entire month of Feb had ZERO sunspots and I personally believe we are heading into a deep solar minimum which will have big implications into global weather patterns. In fact, I'll make a bold prediction that some places across the central/southern Plains will prob experience a "year without a summer". I'm not expecting any long duration heat waves this summer across the plains while to the N/NE the ridge will pop. Given the overall cyclical pattern, I expect a lot of precip which will hold temps below normal across the Plains and into the MW this Summer.Getting that feeling too. Also why I am not excepting a strong severe season this year. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted March 2, 2019 Report Share Posted March 2, 2019 Getting that feeling too. Also why I am not excepting a strong severe season this year.This pattern with all of these storms, severe weather season may be non stop at times. I think it's going to be very rough! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted March 2, 2019 Report Share Posted March 2, 2019 This pattern with all of these storms, severe weather season may be non stop at times. I think it's going to be very rough!The pattern is good but without the extra energy from the sun I have a feeling it will cap that storm potential. Severe storms usually need that extra something. I had a professor who was doing research to connect solar output/sun spot activity with severe weather. Had some interesting data at the time. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OmahaSnowFan Posted March 2, 2019 Report Share Posted March 2, 2019 We've had a cold and above normal snowfall month of February, but as someone else here pointed out, for the majority of us, this winter prior to February wasn't that extreme, and now we're ready to declare no summer and no severe weather for the country? I am in a winter weather forum so I guess I shouldn't be totally shocked..... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted March 2, 2019 Report Share Posted March 2, 2019 We've had a cold and above normal snowfall month of February, but as someone else pointed out for the majority of us, this winter prior to February wasn't that extreme, and now we're ready to declare no summer and no severe weather for the country? I am in a winter weather forum so I guess I shouldn't be totally shocked.....Not quite there yet but if this trend continues with solar activity then the next couple of years could be interesting. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted March 2, 2019 Report Share Posted March 2, 2019 Some light snow currently falling from a disturbance moving on through from the west and temps are at 28F. Roads are and look slippery. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 2, 2019 Author Report Share Posted March 2, 2019 We've had a cold and above normal snowfall month of February, but as someone else here pointed out, for the majority of us, this winter prior to February wasn't that extreme, and now we're ready to declare no summer and no severe weather for the country? I am in a winter weather forum so I guess I shouldn't be totally shocked.....Severe wx will be plentiful in your region and Temps will largely average normal to sub normal. I’m not quite sure yet where the more significant pocket of cooler ex develops in the Summer, but my gut says down in TX and parts of the central/southern Plains/MW. I might start a Spring/Summer thread sometime this weekend since it will be necessary as the itch for Spring fever will be brewing up! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OmahaSnowFan Posted March 2, 2019 Report Share Posted March 2, 2019 Not quite there yet but if this trend continues with solar activity then the next couple of years could be interesting.Meh. We had a minimum like this at the end of the last decade with very high numbers of spotless days and look what happened to global temperatures after that. August 2009 went entirely spotless as part of a streak of 52 consecutive days without a spot.https://www.ign.com/boards/threads/sun-run-of-51-days-without-a-spot-now-among-the-top-5-longest.250531293/ 2009 was an above average year for severe weather with over 1300 tornado reports.https://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/online/monthly/2009_annual_summary.htmlThe following year 2010 was a very active severe weather season including over 1500 tornado reports.https://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/online/monthly/2010_annual_summary.html#2011 was even crazier for severe weather with almost 1900 tornado reports.https://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/online/monthly/2011_annual_summary.html Severe weather is usually such a microscale event that if a temperature is 78 degrees vs 80 degrees, you can still get plenty of severe weather. Moisture and wind energy(where the jet stream sets up) is more important to severe weather. The last few years we've had a delayed spring so cold fronts were constantly ramming through the GOM wiping out moisture return and there were also droughts in the southern and central plains. Then once it warmed up, the jet stream jumped up to Canada. I chase a lot and that was the biggest issues the last couple years, low dewpoints or not a strong jet. Last I heard for this year, the Gulf is still pretty warm and as long as we don't get systems always wiping out the moisture return(which we haven't so far), and if it stays this active with storm systems, I think we could have an active severe storm season. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted March 2, 2019 Report Share Posted March 2, 2019 2010-2011 both had pretty good sun spot activity. But very good points. I guess we will have to see how plays out. I wouldn't mind an active year, but don't think I should be getting my hopes up yet. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxmidatlantic Posted March 2, 2019 Report Share Posted March 2, 2019 Chicago, your Storm Chance is coming. Everybody plays, everybody wins.. 3 Quote A Navy Chief said, "Never change your forecast. That way you can only be wrong once." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted March 2, 2019 Report Share Posted March 2, 2019 Looks like records will be broken in our area in terms of temps for the first week of march. SECOND COLDEST FIRST WEEK OF MARCH IS PROBABLE:- Based on today`s observations and our current official forecastthrough the 7th, both Grand Island/Hastings are expected to endurethe 2nd-coldest first week of March on record. The top spotcurrently belongs to 1960, when the first week averaged anincredible 28 degrees below normal at Grand Island, and 26 degreesbelow normal at Hastings! 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
indianajohn Posted March 2, 2019 Report Share Posted March 2, 2019 that would be a awesome way to end this dismal winter season.........but you know what they say about being in the jackpot zone this early.Chicago, your Storm Chance is coming. Everybody plays, everybody wins..gfs_asnow_ncus_41.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrianJK Posted March 2, 2019 Report Share Posted March 2, 2019 Picked up about 2-3” here in the Northwoods which put the snow depth to just over 40” after a 60”+ February. I won’t ever say it’s too much, but holy hell it’s a lot. Running out of places to put it. Finally looks like a quiet stretch of weather up here though, albeit very cold beginning tomorrow. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted March 2, 2019 Report Share Posted March 2, 2019 Chicago, your Storm Chance is coming. Everybody plays, everybody wins.. gfs_asnow_ncus_41.pngI will leaving for Florida next week so good chance it will happen. I should take IllinoisWX with me to guarantee a lock for the Chicago folks! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxmidatlantic Posted March 2, 2019 Report Share Posted March 2, 2019 that would be a awesome way to end this dismal winter season.........but you know what they say about being in the jackpot zone this early.Be glad, no crying beautiful woman.... Quote A Navy Chief said, "Never change your forecast. That way you can only be wrong once." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 2, 2019 Author Report Share Posted March 2, 2019 Picked up about 2-3” here in the Northwoods which put the snow depth to just over 40” after a 60”+ February. I won’t ever say it’s too much, but holy hell it’s a lot. Running out of places to put it. Finally looks like a quiet stretch of weather up here though, albeit very cold beginning tomorrow.Take pics and enjoy the scenery my friend! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gimmesnow Posted March 2, 2019 Report Share Posted March 2, 2019 Chicago, your Storm Chance is coming. Everybody plays, everybody wins.. gfs_asnow_ncus_41.png Yeah, but it's the GFS. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxmidatlantic Posted March 2, 2019 Report Share Posted March 2, 2019 Yeah, but it's the GFS. Brother I don't post fantasy. Its a logical solution. In the long range, all we ask is a chance. Quote A Navy Chief said, "Never change your forecast. That way you can only be wrong once." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted March 2, 2019 Report Share Posted March 2, 2019 Looks like all the models are in different camps with regards to both storms next week. Good luck to those in the path currently and to those that will be in its path next week. Gotta love model chaos at its finest. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxmidatlantic Posted March 2, 2019 Report Share Posted March 2, 2019 Looks like all the models are in different camps with regards to both storms next week. Good luck to those in the path currently and to those that will be in its path next week. Gotta love model chaos at its finest.[/quote Its March. Got to love it... Quote A Navy Chief said, "Never change your forecast. That way you can only be wrong once." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gimmesnow Posted March 2, 2019 Report Share Posted March 2, 2019 Brother I don't post fantasy. Its a logical solution. In the long range, all we ask is a chance. I know, I just like to rip on the GFS since it's been the cause of so many false hopes this year, lol. Nothing personal, appreciate your input. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted March 2, 2019 Report Share Posted March 2, 2019 The euro moved back north a bit with the March 7th system, drops several inches in Nebraska to Des Moines and an inch or two here. The big second system, however, has shifted way nw. The euro now has a hard cutter through nw Iowa, dumps 2-3 ft of snow in SD. 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andie Posted March 2, 2019 Report Share Posted March 2, 2019 Quote Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes. “If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.” Gen. Sheridan 1866 2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstorm83 Posted March 3, 2019 Report Share Posted March 3, 2019 18z GFS gives Lincoln 17" on Saturday lol. It's 7 days out and has like a 1% chance of verifying, but the cold and active pattern is just crazy. Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4" 2018-19: 55.5" 2019-20: 17.6" 2020-21: 49.4" 2021-22: 5.1" Average: 26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iowawx Posted March 3, 2019 Report Share Posted March 3, 2019 00Z GFS is still showing storm for March 7-8. I am a bit more encouraged about this occurring here because the Euro also has the storm as well. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted March 3, 2019 Report Share Posted March 3, 2019 The FV3 has drifted north in recent runs, putting more of central Iowa into the decent snowfall. The Canadian is still south. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted March 3, 2019 Report Share Posted March 3, 2019 Northeast Nebraska special on 00Z GFS, gives us mostly rain. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted March 3, 2019 Report Share Posted March 3, 2019 00z UK shifted south a bit and is very weak with the first system. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrianJK Posted March 3, 2019 Report Share Posted March 3, 2019 Waking up to -10 with a WC of -25. Forecast for -17 tonight, wouldn’t be surprised to see some -20s. Hello March! 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted March 3, 2019 Report Share Posted March 3, 2019 8 degrees with a heat index of -14 and heavy snow falling. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted March 3, 2019 Report Share Posted March 3, 2019 Waking up to -13F, full sun and blue skies. WC will be as low as -30 today with a high of 2. Ice shanties must be off the lakes by this evening. Watching guys trying to drive on the lake in 23” of snow to pull theirs off is my morning entertainment. Extremely difficult to believe our first 70F day is later this month on average. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted March 3, 2019 Report Share Posted March 3, 2019 I think cloud cover may have kept our temps above where they were supposed to be last night. -1.7*F. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted March 3, 2019 Report Share Posted March 3, 2019 Waking up to -13F, full sun and blue skies. WC will be as low as -30 today with a high of 2. Ice shanties must be off the lakes by this evening. Watching guys trying to drive on the lake in 23” of snow to pull theirs off is my morning entertainment. Extremely difficult to believe our first 70F day is later this month on average.I have to pinch myself when I realize this is march. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted March 3, 2019 Report Share Posted March 3, 2019 -4 with a wind chill of -24 at 9 AM on March 3rd. Incredible. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted March 3, 2019 Report Share Posted March 3, 2019 -1.1*F with a wind chill of -20*F. This is some January level stuff. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted March 3, 2019 Report Share Posted March 3, 2019 Euro showing all rain here next weekend. Think we're putting climo back into the picture here sadly. GFS doesn't look much better, giving us snow only on the backside. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted March 3, 2019 Report Share Posted March 3, 2019 Bring on warmer weather and thunderstorms! I’m ready... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted March 3, 2019 Report Share Posted March 3, 2019 At this point, the GFS is the only model that drops any decent snow this far north on the 7th. The rest are all weaker and/or south. That's never good. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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